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Gold

Gold prices posted a strong rebound, settling up by 1.74% at 1,38,120, supported by expectations of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and sustained safe-haven demand. The metal has already surged nearly 65% over the past year, with momentum accelerating after the US administration imposed broad global tariffs from late April. Ongoing geopolitical risks, including heightened tensions around Russia–Ukraine and stricter US enforcement against Venezuela’s oil trade, continue to underpin investor appetite for gold. Minutes from the December FOMC meeting showed growing openness among policymakers toward monetary easing if inflation continues to cool, reinforcing bullish sentiment despite uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts. Physical demand also showed signs of recovery. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in November to 16.16 tonnes, while gold began trading at premiums again in key consuming hubs. In India, dealers charged premiums of up to $15 per ounce after weeks of discounts, reflecting improved retail demand following a correction from record highs. Central bank buying remained robust, with the People’s Bank of China extending its buying streak to a thirteenth month, and global central banks adding a net 53 tonnes in October. Technically, the market is under short covering, as open interest declined by 4.06% to 14,945 alongside a sharp price rise of 2,359. Gold finds support at 1,36,850, with a deeper support near 1,35,585. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,38,830, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 1,39,545.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 135585-139545.

* Gold prices climbed bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts.

* The persistent Israel-Iran conflict and the ongoing US-Venezuela tensions could boost the Gold price.

* Fed’s minutes revealed increasing openness among policymakers toward monetary easing if inflation continues to cool.

Silver

Silver prices witnessed a sharp rally, settling up by 4.16% at 2,46,155, driven by its designation as a critical US mineral, tightening supply conditions, low global stockpiles, and strong industrial as well as investment demand. Sentiment was further buoyed by expectations that the US Federal Reserve could deliver two additional rate cuts in 2026, especially as markets anticipate a potential shift toward a more dovish stance with the expected nomination of a new Fed chair later this year. Heightened geopolitical tensions, including renewed Russia–Ukraine hostilities and persistent US–Venezuela friction, also reinforced safe-haven interest in precious metals. On the supply side, the global silver market faces growing strain after Chinese inventories fell to their lowest level in a decade. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped to levels last seen in 2015, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes slipped to a nine-year low, following record Chinese exports of over 660 tonnes in October. Although the LBMA reported a 3.5% month-on-month rise in silver holdings in London vaults to 27,187 tonnes, liquidity outside China remains tight, with elevated borrowing costs in London. Technically, the market is under short covering, as open interest fell sharply by 11.22% to 12,352 while prices surged by 9,839. Silver has support at 2,40,960, and a break below could test 2,35,770. On the upside, resistance is seen at 2,50,620, and a move above this level could open the way toward 2,55,090.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 235770-255090.

* Silver gains amid its designation as a critical US mineral, tight supply, low stockpiles, and rising industrial and investment demand.

* Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted against the action in favor of a jumbo rate cut.

* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid dissented in favor of leaving rates unchanged.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled higher by 2.23% at 5,270, supported by OPEC+ reiterating its commitment to keep output unchanged during the first quarter and renewed geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela. Supply risks increased after US forces intensified actions against Venezuelan oil infrastructure, prompting well shut-ins as storage capacity filled. Although Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves, years of underinvestment have constrained exports, limiting the broader market impact. Sentiment was further influenced by a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories, which fell by 1.93 million barrels, the steepest decline since mid-November. US crude production hit a record high of 13.87 million bpd in October, with output rising across New Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. Refined product inventories also surged, with gasoline stocks jumping by 5.85 million barrels and distillates rising nearly 5 million barrels, underscoring weak downstream demand. North Sea crude supply underpinning Brent is also set to rise in February. The IEA expects global supply to exceed demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026, only marginally narrower than earlier estimates, despite slightly lower supply growth projections due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. OPEC+ production edged up in November to 43.06 million bpd, while demand for OPEC+ crude is seen averaging 42.6 million bpd in Q1 2026.Technically, the market is under short covering, with open   down 8.07% to 17,543 as prices rose 115. Crude oil has support at 5,150, below which it may test 5,031. Resistance is seen at 5,339, and a breakout could push prices toward 5,409.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5031-5409.

* Crude oil inched higher as OPEC+ has reiterated its commitment to keep output unchanged in the first quarter.

* U.S. oil production hit a record high in October, according to the Energy Information Administration.

* US crude oil inventories, fell by 1.934 million barrels in the week ending December 26, the largest weekly drop since mid-November

Natural gas

Natural gas prices ended sharply lower, settling down by 5.29% at 315.2, as weather-driven demand concerns weighed heavily on sentiment. Forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures across the US through January 20 significantly reduced heating demand expectations. Heating Degree Days are projected to remain well below the 30-year average, with HDDs seen easing to 367 from 369, compared with a normal level of 458, highlighting subdued seasonal consumption. LSEG estimates average gas demand, including exports, in the Lower-48 states to edge up only marginally from 133.0 bcfd this week to 134.2 bcfd next week, underscoring limited near-term demand growth. Supply-side data further pressured prices. LSEG noted that average US natural gas output rose to 109.2 bcfd in January, close to record levels, though slightly below December’s peak of 109.9 bcfd. Storage data from the EIA also disappointed bulls, as withdrawals totaled just 38 bcf for the week ended December 26, well below market expectations of 50 bcf and sharply lower than last year’s 112 bcf draw and the five-year average of 120 bcf. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both production and consumption to reach record highs in 2025, with output projected at 107.7 bcfd, indicating ample supply availability. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.12% to 25,676 while prices fell 17.6. Natural gas has immediate support at 303.8; a break below could see prices testing 292.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at 327, and a move above this level may push prices toward 338.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 292.5-338.9.

* Natural gas dropped pressured by forecasts for warmer weather nationwide and lower demand projections.

* LSEG forecasted average gas demand, would rise marginally from 133.0 bcfd to 134.2 bcfd next week.

* LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in January

Copper

Copper prices ended higher, settling up by 2.04% at 1313.3, as supply-side concerns outweighed mixed macro signals. Sentiment was supported by disruptions at key producing regions, particularly Chile, where Capstone Copper announced that operations at its Mantoverde mine would be cut to nearly 30% capacity following strike action by Union #2, which represents around half of the site’s workforce. Adding to supply tightness, Chile’s copper output fell 7.18% year-on-year in November, while production at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia remains halted after a fatal incident, impacting nearly 3% of global supply. Low inventories in LME-approved warehouses and elevated Yangshan premiums earlier in the month also reinforced near-term supply concerns. On the demand side, China’s factory activity unexpectedly expanded in December, snapping an eight-month contraction streak, supported by pre-holiday orders and policy measures to stabilise growth. However, upside remained capped as US Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in December, marking the weakest expansion in the current growth phase. China’s copper imports declined for a second straight month in November, reflecting price sensitivity, although concentrate imports remained strong. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.27% to 14,263 alongside a 26.2 price gain. Copper has support at 1297.6; below this, prices may test 1281.9. Resistance is seen at 1324.5, and a sustained move above could open the way toward 1335.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1281.9-1335.7.

* Copper rose on supply worries after a Chilean mine strike, deficit forecasts, and low LME stocks.

* Supply concerns continued to intensify following the strike going into 2026, after mine disruptions.

* US Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 51.8 in December 2025, down from 52.2 in November.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled higher by 1.35% at 310.75, supported by improved sentiment toward the Chinese economy after December manufacturing data surprised on the upside, ending an eight-month contraction streak. The positive macro signal encouraged speculative buying, particularly amid emerging concerns over near-term supply tightness. Support also came from falling inventories, with stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses declining by 4.3% from December 26, indicating improving spot market conditions. On the supply side, zinc concentrate output is expected to decline month-on-month as maintenance shutdowns weigh on availability. A major zinc mine in Central China is set to undergo routine maintenance, reducing effective production days, while a mine in Southwest China, having largely met its annual output target, is scheduled for maintenance that could cut concentrate output by around 700 tonnes in metal content. However, the upside in prices remained capped by ample refined supply, as China’s zinc output in November jumped 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes. Globally, refined zinc production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2025. The ILZSG reported a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in the global refined zinc market during the first ten months of 2025, although the monthly deficit narrowed to 600 tonnes in October. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 1.23% to 5,454 as prices gained 4.15. Zinc finds support at 308.9, below which it could test 307. Resistance is seen at 311.8, and a break above may push prices toward 312.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 307-312.8.

* Zinc gains amid signs of restored confidence in the Chinese economy.

* Support also seen amid speculative buying on worries about tighter supply.

* China's factory activity unexpectedly grew in December, snapping a record eight straight months of decline.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled higher by 1.21% at 306.4, supported by a tightening supply outlook and expectations of sustained long-term demand growth. Sentiment was underpinned by China’s continued enforcement of a 45-million-ton cap on smelting capacity, aimed at preventing overcapacity and curbing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector. With capped output prioritised for domestic consumption, Chinese aluminium exports fell sharply by 9.2% year-on-year in November, lending support to global prices. Additionally, Chinese smelters’ plans to expand capacity in Indonesia have faced setbacks due to higher energy costs and regulatory risks, reinforcing supply-side constraints. On the inventory front, aluminium stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses edged up 1.0% from December 26, tempering near-term bullishness. Globally, primary aluminium output rose marginally by 0.5% year-on-year to 6.086 million tonnes in November, according to the International Aluminium Institute. In contrast, inventories at three major Japanese ports declined 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 tonnes, signalling tighter regional availability. China’s aluminium imports fell 14% year-on-year in November, even as cumulative imports for the first eleven months of 2025 remained 4.4% higher. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 4.73% to 3,969 while prices gained 3.65. Aluminium has support at 303.8, with further downside opening toward 301.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 308.2, and a break above could push prices toward 310.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 301.3-310.1.

* Aluminium prices rose tracking LME prices touched $3,000 a ton for the first time in more than three years.

* Prices gained due to a tightening supply outlook and bets on long-term demand.

* Prices gained support from a cap on Chinese smelting capacity of 45 million tons, which is expected to tighten supply as demand climbs.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices eased marginally, settling down by 0.58% at 18,378, as markets factored in expectations of higher acreage on the back of favourable rains during the current sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, overall availability is constrained by lower carry-forward stocks, limiting downside pressure on prices. Arrivals continue to remain below normal, while domestic and international demand stays firm. Both farmers and stockists are reported to have significantly reduced inventories, providing a strong base ahead of new crop arrivals. Yield losses of 15–20% have been reported in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka due to unseasonal heavy rains, waterlogging and disease issues, affecting nearly 15% of the area in pockets of Marathwada. Despite these losses, higher acreage may lift Maharashtra’s dried turmeric output to 54 lakh bags from 47.5 lakh bags last year, though quality concerns such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin risk persist. Export demand remains supportive, especially from Europe and the US, aided by limited quality supplies from Indonesia. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.39% to 15,445 while prices fell by 108. Support is seen at 18,116, below which prices may test 17,852. On the upside, resistance is placed at 18,678, and a breakout could lead to 18,976.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17852-18976.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16496.45 Rupees gained by 1.07 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased modestly, settling down by 0.55% at 22,605, as comfortable supplies and subdued export demand weighed on sentiment amid adequate existing stocks. Export interest remains tepid, with current overseas business largely being met from available inventories, and traders noting continued inactivity from foreign buyers following the conclusion of the retail season. Jeera exports during Apr–Oct 2025 declined 13.21% year-on-year to 117,682.52 tonnes, while October exports also fell marginally on both year-on-year and month-on-month bases. However, downside in prices remains limited due to persistent weather-related issues and delayed sowing. As of 29 December 2025, jeera sowing in Gujarat stood at 3.99 lakh hectares, down 14.20% from last year, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. Arrivals at Unjha remain very low, with good-quality cumin commanding premium prices, even as the Unjha spot market ended marginally lower at 22,412.9. Logistical and weather challenges across India and the Middle East continue to restrict supply, while the GST cut to 5% is expected to support FMCG demand and exports over the medium term. On the supply front, farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with carry-forward stocks likely near 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with reduced output also reported in key global producing regions. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.52% to 3,831 alongside a price drop of 125. Support is seen at 22,270, below which prices may test 21,940. Resistance is placed at 23,000, and a move above this level could open the path toward 23,400.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21940-23400.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22412.9 Rupees dropped by -0.42 percent.

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