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Gold prices settled down 0.93% at ?151,299, pressured by a stronger dollar and hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials that reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% and indicated another hike could come before year-end, with markets pricing a 53% probability of an October rate increase. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said higher rates and the threat of further tightening could temper business inflation expectations and moderate price pressures without significantly weakening economic activity. Geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated after US President Donald Trump warned of severe consequences for Iran while also indicating that a possible agreement could emerge through ongoing diplomatic efforts. Despite near-term pressure, Standard Chartered said gold continues to receive firm support from official-sector demand and structural factors, although the pace of appreciation may slow. Swiss gold exports rose 65% month-on-month in August, with shipments to the UK surging to 102.1 tonnes from 39.5 tonnes in July, while exports to China increased 20% to 26.1 tonnes and shipments to India declined 58% to 3.5 tonnes. Indian demand remained subdued as buyers awaited lower prices, with domestic dealers offering discounts of up to $60 per ounce, while Chinese bullion traded at a $5 premium. China’s central bank increased gold reserves for a sixth consecutive month in August, extending its buying streak to 22 months. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central-bank diversification as a structural driver. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 9.47% to 6,570 while prices fell ?1,417. Gold now finds support at ?150,575, and a break below could expose ?149,855. Resistance is placed at ?152,490, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward ?153,685.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149855-153685.

* Gold fell pressured by a stronger dollar and hawkish remarks from Fed officials that reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy.

* Fed’s Barkin said that rate hikes and the threat of more to come could temper business inflation expectations.

* Trump threatens to annihilate Iran, suggests deal possible soon

Silver prices settled down 1.66% at ?235,895 as hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials outweighed the supportive impact of falling oil prices on inflation and interest-rate expectations. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that inflationary shocks could take time to fade, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins backed last week’s rate hike amid concerns that inflation could remain above the 2% target. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also highlighted strong demand, energy costs, tariffs and supply shocks as inflationary risks, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said elevated inflation remains a key concern. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an almost 90% probability of at least one further Fed rate hike this year, keeping pressure on non-yielding precious metals. Meanwhile, oil prices extended their decline for a sixth consecutive session after reports of constructive US-Iran discussions, with Tehran indicating it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if military pressure and the blockade of Iranian ports are eased. Lower energy prices could reduce inflationary pressure and limit expectations for aggressive monetary tightening. London silver vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the deficit forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025 despite total demand declining 2%. Industrial silver fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is forecast to rise 18%. Global supply is projected to decline 2%. Silver has fallen 35% from its January record of $121.6 per ounce following weaker physical demand and improved liquidity. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 8.77% to 14,257 while prices declined ?3,993. Silver is now supported at ?233,805, and a break below this level could expose ?231,715. Resistance is placed at ?239,680, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward ?243,465.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 231715-243465.

* Silver dropped as hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials outweighed the impact of falling oil prices on the inflation.

* Fed’s Collins said she supported last week’s rate hike amid concerns that future inflation could remain above the 2% target.

* Fed’s Goolsbee said, “Strong demand may be adding to inflation along with energy, tariff, other supply shocks.”

Crude oil prices settled up 2.11% at ?8,825 as markets assessed efforts to restore disrupted Middle East supplies amid persistent geopolitical risks. Saudi Arabia is preparing to restart exports through its critical East-West pipeline, potentially bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and allowing additional shipments. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said American officials held a “very productive” meeting with Iranian envoys, with further discussions planned, although uncertainty surrounding regional tensions remains elevated. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.8-million-barrel increase in US crude inventories, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined. EIA data subsequently showed US crude inventories rising by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels for the week ended September 18, against expectations for a 641,000-barrel draw. Cushing crude stocks increased by 2.3 million barrels to 23.7 million barrels, while refinery runs declined by 519,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization fell 2.8 percentage points to 94%. Gasoline inventories declined 1.7 million barrels to 206 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell 0.4 million barrels to 107.4 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined to 284.6 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982. Libya also reported losses of around 130,000 barrels per day after closure of the Sharara-Zawiya pipeline. Bank of America raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast to $95 per barrel from $83, citing prolonged geopolitical tensions, while maintaining an average 2027 forecast of around $80. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that shrinking inventories and constrained refining capacity could tighten markets if Middle East disruptions persist into 2027. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 2.66% to 12,015 while prices gained ?182. Crude oil now has support at ?8,576, and a break below could expose ?8,327. Resistance is placed at ?8,994, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward ?9,163.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8327-9163.

* Crude oil rose as markets assessed efforts to restore oil flows disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East.

* BofA hikes Brent price forecast on prolonged Middle East supply disruptions

* Libya's NOC says Sharara crude pipeline closure losses at 130,000 bpd

Natural gas prices settled up 2.16% at ?288.6, supported by forecasts for seasonally cooler weather over the next two weeks, which could boost heating demand, alongside lower daily production and stronger flows toward liquefied natural gas exports. LSEG data showed average US Lower 48 gas output at 112.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, above the August monthly record of 112.2 bcfd, although daily production was expected to fall to an 11-week low of 109.8 bcfd due mainly to declines in Louisiana and Pennsylvania. Natural gas inventories have remained above the five-year average since March, supported by strong production, but summer cooling demand reduced the surplus. Storage increased by 44 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 11, below expectations for a 49 bcf build and well below the 87 bcf injection recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average of 74 bcf. Total working gas stocks rose to 3.298 trillion cubic feet, around 3.6% below last year but 3.7% above the five-year average. LSEG expects average Lower 48 demand including exports to decline from 107.8 bcfd this week to 104.1 bcfd next week. The EIA expects US dry gas production to reach 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, compared with 107.6 bcfd in 2025. Domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 40.18% to 8,151 while prices gained ?6.1. Natural gas now finds support at ?283.5, and a break below could test ?278.3. Resistance is placed at ?293.7, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward ?298.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 278.3-298.7.

* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for seasonally cool weather, a drop in daily output and an increase in flows to LNG exports.

* Daily Lower 48 gas output drops to 109.8 bcfd on Wednesday

* Storage surplus seen narrowing to 3.0% above five-year norm before EIA data

Copper prices settled down 0.59% at ?1,406.75, pressured by a stronger dollar and profit-taking after recent gains. Comex copper inventories have started recording modest daily inflows, while the premium of US copper futures over LME prices increased after a sharp pullback. Comex warehouses now hold around 69% of the roughly 1 million tonnes of copper tracked across global exchanges, highlighting concerns over tighter availability outside the United States. Chilean copper production weakened sharply in July, with Codelco output falling 5% year-on-year to 112,800 tonnes, while BHP-controlled Escondida production declined 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes. Collahuasi output increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes, but Chile’s overall copper production fell 9.4% due to severe weather in the north and maintenance at major operations. Cochilco expects Chilean copper output to decline around 2.5% in 2026 before recovering next year. Peru provided some supply support, with July copper production rising 3.7% year-on-year to 236,515 tonnes, while January-July production increased 2.2% to 1.6 million tonnes. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-tonne deficit in June compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the first six months still showed a 131,000-tonne surplus. June refined copper production stood at 2.37 million tonnes against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes. China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Copper concentrate imports also declined to 19.49 million tonnes from 20.06 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 11.71% to 6,425 while prices fell ?8.4. Copper now finds support at ?1,402.3, and a break below could test ?1,397.7. Resistance is placed at ?1,413.2, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward ?1,419.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1397.7-1419.5.

* Copper prices fell due to a stronger dollar and as investors took profits.

* Comex copper inventories have started to record modest daily inflows as the premium of US copper futures over LME prices edged higher.

* Copper output at Chilean state miner Codelco fell 5% from a year earlier in July to 112,800 metric tons.

Zinc prices settled marginally higher by 0.05% at ?434.3 as elevated prices weakened demand and discouraged buyers in China, while expectations of Chinese export deliveries to the LME added pressure. The market also faced headwinds from a sharp pullback in LME copper amid changing tariff expectations. China’s zinc production contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August 2026, declining 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. However, rising Chinese exports could improve zinc availability in other major markets. Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.6% from the previous Friday. Global supply concerns remained supportive, with Glencore reporting own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 99,600 tonnes or 21% year-on-year, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. Reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter also raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. Tight inventories outside China continued to provide support, keeping the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract at $124 per tonne. Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have increased concerns over concentrate availability, while Middle East tensions have restricted Iranian ore shipments. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May. However, the market still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus during the first six months of 2026, compared with a 74,000-tonne surplus during the same period of 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 12.68% to 1,371 while prices gained ?0.2. Zinc now finds support at ?431.2, and a break below could test ?428. Resistance is placed at ?436.8, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward ?439.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 428-439.2.

* Zinc settled flat as elevated prices weakened demand and discouraged buyers China.

* China’s zinc output contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August 2026.

* Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability.

Aluminium prices settled down 0.27% at ?347.3 as expectations of improving supply weighed on sentiment, with several smelters restarting and ramping up previously curtailed capacity while expansion projects could further increase availability. However, downside remained limited due to tight physical supply conditions, with Middle East disruptions significantly affecting regional output. Gulf Cooperation Council aluminium production fell 44% year-on-year in July, while LME inventories remained near a 36-year low and SHFE stocks continued to decline. Aluminium inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.7% from the previous Friday, highlighting constrained physical availability. China’s rising exports could partly offset supply shortages from the Gulf, although August exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products declined to 626,000 tonnes from 643,000 tonnes in July. Still, exports during the first eight months rose 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. Aluminium Bahrain was operating at an annualised production rate of 1.3 million tonnes, around 19% below pre-war capacity after production lines were shut following the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Japanese aluminium inventories increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August. Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes after Cyclone Narelle and bauxite contamination disrupted operations at its Pinjarra refinery. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July. In contrast, China’s August aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes, up 4.7% year-on-year, while January-August output rose 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 10.3% to 1,916 while prices fell ?0.95. Aluminium now finds support at ?346.4, and a break below could test ?345.4. Resistance is placed at ?348.5, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward ?349.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 345.4-349.6.

* Aluminum dropped as supply outlook could improve as several smelters restart and ramp up previously curtailed capacity

* Japan's August aluminium stocks up 22.7% m/m

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.7% from last Friday.

Turmeric prices settled up 1.35% at ?20,358, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, lower-than-expected sowing expansion and concerns that deficient rainfall and possible El Nino conditions could affect the developing crop. Declining carry-forward stocks accumulated over the past three to four years have further tightened availability, with industry estimates placing carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could reduce yields and provide additional price support. However, upside remained limited as monsoon activity improved across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, while key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh filled adequately, improving water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions showing improvement. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, pressuring commercial-grade turmeric while supporting demand and premiums for Integrated Pest Management certified supplies. Farmers have also increased selling during the peak harvest window, adding temporary pressure to the market. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes in July 2025, although cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, while shipments to Sri Lanka rose 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria increased 983% to 69 tonnes. Switzerland and Zambia also recorded sharp increases of 3,263% and 507%, respectively. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, turmeric prices ended at ?20,273.15, gaining 1.35%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.57% to 36,770 while prices gained ?272. Turmeric now finds support at ?20,146, and a break below could test ?19,932. Resistance is placed at ?20,532, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward ?20,704.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19932-20704.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of lower overall output for the upcoming harvest.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* India’s turmeric exports declined 10% YoY to 13,489 tonnes in July-2026 from 15,071 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20273.15 Rupees gained by 1.35 percent.

Jeera prices settled up 1.19% at ?22,030, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade high-purity supplies are shrinking faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals across major markets such as Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started tapering significantly, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected the quality and quantity of harvestable crop. However, upside remained limited as farmers continued liquidating stocks for immediate cash flow ahead of the next season, while favorable weather in North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying. NCDEX warehouse stocks have also increased steadily, reducing urgency among traders, while large spice grinders are maintaining hand-to-mouth buying rather than aggressive bulk procurement. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria could pressure Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists are also reducing forward coverage. India’s cumin production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season against 1.10 crore bags last year, including 42-45 lakh bags from Gujarat and 48-50 lakh bags from Rajasthan. Outside India, China’s production is estimated at 70-80 thousand tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9-10 thousand, 10-11 thousand and 10-12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes, but exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices ended at ?21,612.45, gaining 0.31%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 4.27% to 7,269 while prices gained ?260. Jeera now finds support at ?21,810, and a break below could test ?21,580. Resistance is placed at ?22,170, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward ?22,300.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21580-22300.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21612.45 Rupees gained by 0.31 percent.

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