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Nifty :25496

Indian equities benchmark settled the Thursday's session on a flat note as Nifty settled at 25496, up 14 points. Market breadth remained in favour of advances as Nifty Mid gained 0.7%. Sectorally, Pharma, PSU Banks, auto remained in focus while FMCG extended losses

Technical Outlook:

* The index continued to trade in a choppy range that resulted in a small bear candle with lower shadow, highlighting supportive efforts emerging from 200 days Simple Moving Average

* The index exhibited a range bound activity over a second session in a row. However, noteworthy point is that, the absence of follow through weakness to last weeks sizable bear candle suggest that selling pressure is losing it’s grip. Hence, going forward, a decisive close above upper band of falling channel (placed at 25800) would be the key monitorable that would open the door for a meaningful pullback towards 26300 in the coming month. Failure to do so would result into prolongation of consolidation in 25800-25200 range wherein stock specific activity would prevail.

* Structurally, over past three-weeks, index has been consolidating within a falling channel formation after a sharp rally seen in early February month. We believe, the ongoing slower pace of retracement is a sign of a healthy consolidation that would further strengthen the base and provide launchpad to challenge All time high (26350) in coming month.

* In this process bouts of volatility cannot be ruled out amid geopolitical worries. Hence, any decline from current level should be use to accumulate quality stocks backed by strong Q3 results. As strong support is placed around 25,200 being 200-day EMA coincided with 61.8% retracement of recent up move (24572- 26341).

* On broader market front, the formation of higher peak and trough after bouncing from 200 days EMA highlights revival in midcap index. Further, the current up move is backed by the improvement in the market breadth as currently 50% of stocks of Nifty 500 universe are sustaining above their 50-day SMA compared to early Feb reading of 20%. Such improvement in the market breadth warrants broadening of rally going ahead

Key Monitorable:

* The brent crude would be the key monitorable going forward amidst renewed geopolitical tension, that pulled it around falling resistance trendline placed at $72 range. A decisive close above $72 would fuel the momentum for next leg of up move that can add pressure on emerging markets like India

* India GDP Number

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 200 days SMA

* Levels- Buy around 80% retracement of previous 3 days range (25342-25818)

Nifty Bank :61187

Nifty Bank ended the day on a flat note to settle at 61187 up 0.2%. Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed gaining ~1%.

Technical Outlook:

* Index began the day with positive note and found supportive efforts from previous day low. Consequently, daily price action formed a second consecutive inside bar, indicating consolidation while sustaining above its 20 days EMA

* The Nifty Bank index remains structurally stronger compared to the benchmark. As the banking index is just 1% away from its All-Time high while Nifty is still 3.5% away from its record highs, indicating relative outperformance. Therefore, a deceive close above 61800 (all-time high) would fuel further momentum that would open the door for next leg of up move towards 62800. Failure to do so would lead to continuation of consolidation near its all-time high (61800-59700) that would make market healthy.

* Volatility is likely to remain elevated on the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, any corrective declines from current levels should be viewed as buying opportunities as strong demand zone is identified near 59,700, being 50-day EMA and 61.8% retracement of the current up move (57,783-61,674).

* The PSU Bank index endured its northbound journey and clocked yet another Lifetime High. The sequence of higher peak and trough while sustaining above its short term moving average highlights sheer resilience that bodes well to head towards psychological mark of 10000 in the coming month.

* Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts around 20-day EMA

* Levels - Buy around 80% retracement of previous 3 days range(60805-61672).

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