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Nifty :25665

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Indian equities benchmark concluded the session on a subdued note to settle at 25665 down 0.26% tracking weak global cues. Despite correction in benchmark, market breadth was upbeat with both Nifty midcap and Smallcap has relatively outperformed by 0.50% each. Sectorally, barring Metals and PSUs Bank all other indices closed flat to negative wherein IT was the key laggard

Technical Outlook:

* The index opened on a flat note and oscillated within previous session range, as a result the daily price action formed inside bar, indicating range bound session.

* Index is likely to open with a gap-up backed by strong earnings from large-cap IT majors, which have reinforced positive sentiment. Key point to highlight is that, after recent decline index is now forming higher base around its 100-day EMA(25623), coinciding with the long-term trend line which has been held since covid low, indicating strong support. Thereby holding above Monday’s panic low of 25473 would keep pullback options open. Additionally, a decisive close above 25900 would fuel momentum which would drive index toward 26300 in coming weeks.

* Looking ahead, volatility is expected to stay elevated amid geopolitical uncertainties, Q3 earnings season, and awaited clarity on the US-India trade deal.

* Structurally, Since Oct 2025, index has arrested multiple intermediate corrections in 3-4%. Subsequently, such correction offered incremental buying opportunity followed by gradual positive recovery in subsequent weeks. In the current scenario, the index has already corrected ~3.4% that hauled daily stochastic oscillator in oversold territory, indicating limited downside. Hence, one should avoid aggressive selling at current levels and focus on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong fundamentals as key support is placed at 25300 being 200 day-EMA and 61.8% retracement of preceding up-move (24580-26325)

* On the broader market front, Midcap index found supportive efforts from 50 % retracement of Sept-Nov rally placed around 58700 (which has been held on multiple occasions in last two months) that coincided with 100 days EMA, highlighting prevailing uptrend is intact. Going ahead, follow through strength above 60100 would reignite bullish momentum in the midcaps Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 100-day EMA

* Levels: Buy near 61.8% retracement of last 2 days up move (25573-25934

Nifty Bank : 59580

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Banknifty closed the session on a flat note to settle at 59580. Nifty PSU outperformed the benchmark making new All Time High gaining 1.8%.

Technical Outlook

* The index opened on a negative note thereafter traded within previous session range. The daily price action formed is Inside bar, indicating lack of direction move.

* Key point to highlight is that, Q3 earnings from PSU Bank has boosted market sentiment that helped PSU Bank Index to make New All time High . Despite volatility Bank Nifty Index continue to trade at 20-day EMA.

* We believe Index to eventually head towards 60400 as strong support is placed at 58500, being 50% retracement of its preceding up-move (57157-60114) and previous swing-low Structurally, post rebound from 50-day EMA index has made new high in subsequent months. In current scenario also, Index has maintained the same rhythm and we expect it to make new high in coming months.

* Nifty PSU Bank Index made New All time High after witnessing breakout from recent consolidation range, forming higher high higher low on daily time frame. Going ahead we expect Index to head towards 9200 (measuring implication of range breakout) in coming weeks ,considering good results from PSU Banks.

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 50-day EMA

* Levels: Buy near 50% retracement of last 2 days up move (59128-59930)

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