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India is poised to achieve record sugar production in the next marketing year, supported by increased cane cultivation and favorable water availability in key regions. After two years of export restrictions due to drought, the rebound may allow the world's second-largest producer to resume exports in 2025/26. Farmers have shifted to sugarcane due to poor returns from alternative crops like soybeans and cotton. Favorable weather conditions and ample rainfall have driven the expansion of cultivation in Maharashtra and Karnataka, promising higher yields. This development could stabilize global sugar prices amid concerns about Brazil’s reduced supply due to dry weather.

Key Highlights

* India’s sugar output is projected to hit a record high in 2025/26.

* Ample water availability and favorable rains aid sugarcane planting.

* Farmers shift from soybeans and cotton to sugarcane for better returns.

* India may export 3-5 million tons of sugar if conditions remain favorable.

* Global sugar prices could stabilize with increased Indian exports.

India is gearing up for record sugar production in the next marketing year, starting October 2025, driven by a surge in sugarcane cultivation. Key producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, bolstered by ample reservoir levels and favorable rains, are seeing farmers plant sugarcane at an unprecedented rate. This anticipated rebound follows two years of production declines due to erratic rainfall, which also restricted exports.

Prices in the domestic market are expected to remain stable as increased production eases supply concerns. Globally, Indian exports, projected at 3-5 million tons, could cap rising sugar prices driven by Brazil's anticipated lower output due to dry weather. With India being a significant exporter to Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the UAE, this development could reshape global market dynamics.

The shift in farmer preference from soybeans and cotton to sugarcane has been another critical factor. Low returns from competing crops and water scarcity last year prompted this strategic move. Experts, including Prakash Naiknavare, emphasize that sugarcane's assured returns are pivotal in driving this trend.

Despite current season production dipping to 28 million tons, next year’s favorable conditions, including abundant water and expanded planting, could push India’s output to a record high. However, factors like pest infestations or adverse weather could still pose risks.

Finally

India’s sugar industry is set for a rebound, promising record production and renewed export opportunities in 2025/26, potentially stabilizing global sugar markets.

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