India's central bank holds rates as expected
The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday, as it awaits data to judge if higher oil prices are stoking inflationary pressures across Asia's third-largest economy.
COMMENTS:
RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, DBS BANK, SINGAPORE:
"The RBI signalled patience, but not complacency. By remaining on hold, the MPC retained flexibility while monitoring whether current inflation pressures prove temporary or evolve into a more generalised inflation cycle."
UPASNA BHARDWAJ, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI:
"The RBI's decision of status quo has been in line with expectations. The tone has been well balanced, highlighting the risks and, hence, the policy decisions ahead being data-dependent. We continue to see scope for 50 bps of rate hike in the second half of FY27."
SHISHIR BAIJAL, INTERNATIONAL PARTNER, CHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, KNIGHT FRANK INDIA:
"For the real estate sector, this policy continuity is expected to sustain housing demand and investment activity, particularly across residential and commercial segments, while supporting the sector's long-term growth trajectory."
VIKRAM CHHABRA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, 360 ONE ASSET, MUMBAI:
"The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain with the West Asia conflict fuelling volatility in crude oil prices, while strengthening El Niño conditions raise the risk of a weaker monsoon. These factors pose challenges to both growth and inflation.
"Against this backdrop, the RBI's decision to adopt a wait-and-watch approach at its August meeting was appropriate.
"If the geopolitical situation stabilises and the monsoon remains close to normal, we expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged for an extended period. However, if crude oil prices remain elevated and a weak monsoon disrupts agricultural output, driving up food inflation, the RBI may be compelled to raise interest rates by the end of FY27."
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