Index started the week on a flat note and oscillated ~500 points range during the session - ICICI Direct
Nifty :24352
Indian equity benchmarks ended a volatile session on a flat-to-positive note, defying pressure from rising crude oil prices (which spiked nearly 7% following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz). The Nifty 50 settled at 24,364.85, up 11 points. Market breadth, however, favored declines with an A/D ratio of 1:2. Sectorally, PSU Banks, Auto, and Energy (were top gainers, while IT and Realty faced the most pressure
Technical Outlook
* Index started the week on a flat note and oscillated ~500 points range during the session. The daily price action resulted into doji-like candle around 50-day EMA, indicating indecision and elevated volatility.
* The Index has approached its previous breakdown support near 24,500, which is now acting as immediate resistance according to the change of polarity principle.
* Following a sharp rally of ~2,300 points over the last three weeks, the Stochastic Oscillator on both daily and weekly timeframes has entered overbought territory. This suggests that the possibility of profit-booking at higher levels cannot be ruled out.
* However, such a "cool-off" should not be construed as a negative. Instead, it should be viewed as a healthy consolidation of the current advance, potentially setting the stage for the next leg higher toward the 200-day EMA near 24,800
* On a broader market perspective, Since the recent bottom formed on April 2, 2026, the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices have rallied 15-17%, while the Nifty has gained only 10%. This performance gap suggests further room for Nifty to catch up. A higher base formation amid ongoing consolidation should set the stage for a march toward 24,800 in the coming weeks.
* In the process, volatility would remain elevated on the back of geopolitical development as well as onset of earning season. Hence, we expect stock specific activity to remain in focus.
Our constructive bias is further validated by following observations:
1.Mirroring the historical volatility of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the index is repeating a similar "war-induced" pattern. Recent corrections have arrested near the 11% mark, followed by a resilient one-month rally of approximately 9%, suggesting that markets have priced in the geopolitical risks and are entering a recovery phase.
2.On a global market perspective, with the S&P 500 recently crossing the historic 7,000 mark and the Nasdaq hitting record highs, we expect the Indian markets to witness "catch-up" activity.
3.The Bank Nifty has staged a strong rebound, successfully maintaining its longterm rhythm of avoiding corrections greater than 20%. This established floor, which has held firm since the COVID-19 lows, reinforces the sector's relative strength and its role as a primary driver of the broader market recovery.
4.Market breadth has seen a significant improvement, indicating broad-based participation rather than a narrow rally. The % of stocks trading above their 50-day SMA has jumped to 72% (up from 15% last month), while those above their 200-day SMA have increased to 39%, signaling that mid and long-term trends are turning bullish across various sectors
Key Monitorable:
A.US-Iran ceasefire 22nd April deadline
B.Q4 earning season
C.Further decline in Crude, US Dollar Index.
Intraday Rational:
* Trend - Higher high-low formation in weekly time-frame, indicating bias positive.
* Levels - Buy around 61.8% retracement level of previous 2 days range.
Nifty Bank :56582
The Bank Nifty Index ended the day on a flat note. BankNifty settle the day at 56582.35 up 0.03%
Technical Outlook:
* Index started the week on a flat note and oscillated ~730 points range during the session. The daily price action resulted into High wave-like candle around 50-day EMA, indicating indecision and elevated volatility.
* The Index has approached its previous breakdown support coincides with gap resistance (57000-57700), which is now acting as immediate resistance according to the change of polarity principle of primary uptrend.
* Key point to highlight is that Index has closed above its 50- day EMA for second time Since March 2026, indicating revival of upward momentum. Going ahead a decisive close above 200-day EMA (56700) will open the door for the next leg of up move towards 57200 in the coming weeks. Failing which could lead to a period of consolidation within 54900-56700 range.
* The Bank Nifty has staged a strong rebound, successfully maintaining its long-term rhythm of avoiding corrections greater than 20%. This established floor, which has held firm since the COVID-19 lows, reinforces the sector's relative strength and its role as a primary driver of the broader market recovery
* On the broader space, the Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed the benchmark and closed positive up 0.87%. Forming higher high higher low. Index is consolidating above its short term 20-day EMA, indicating buying demand at elevated support base. A sustain and close above 100-day EMA would accelerate the next leg of upmove towards 9100 being 61.8% Retracement of Feb-April26 decline.
Intraday Rational:
* Trend- Higher high-low formation in weekly time-frame, indicating bias positive bias
* Levels- Buy around 61.8% retracement of previous 2 day’s range
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