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Nifty :25571

Day that was.. Indian equities closed the week the on flat note, with Nifty settling at 25571, up 0.4%, despite navigating global as well as geopolitical uncertainties. Broader market underperformed the benchmark as Nifty midcap, small cap remained unchanged. Sectorally, PSUs bank, Energy, PSU remained in limelight wherein Nifty IT, Auto were the top losers for the week

Technical Outlook:

• Index began the week with a strong three-day rally; however, mid-week turbulence on geopolitical jitters fueled the volatility in the market. Consequently, weekly price action formed a small bull candle with upper shadow, indicating breather over second week in a row.

• Index is set for a strong Gap-up fueled by a global relief rally after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down key trade tariffs, easing global trade war fears. Going ahead, we expect prolongation of ongoing consolidation in the broader range of 26000-25200 while sailing through global, geopolitical volatility. Key point to highlight is that, over past 13 sessions index has retraced merely 50% of preceding two sessions up move seen during early February, highlighting slower pace of retracement.

• This measured pullback, indicating that the ongoing decline is more of a time-wise consolidation rather than a reversal of the prevailing uptrend which would make market healthy and provide launchpad to challenge All time high (26350) in coming month.

• Hence, any decline from current level should be used to build a quality portfolio wherein focus should be on accumulating key beneficiaries of trade deal of India with US & European Union. In the process, strong support is placed around 25,200 being 200- day EMA coincided with 61.8% retracement of recent up move (24572-26341)

 • Mirroring the benchmark move, Nifty midcap, smallcap indices underwent healthy consolidation after bouncing back from their key support zone. The current up move is backed by the improvement in the market breadth as currently 45% of stocks of Nifty 500 universe are sustaining above their 50-day SMA compared to early Feb reading of 20%. Such improvement in the market breadth warrants broadening of rally going ahead

Key Monitorable:

• The brent crude would be the key monitorable going forward amidst renewed geopolitical tension, that pulled it around falling resistance trendline placed at $72 range. A decisive close above $72 would fuel the momentum for next leg of up move that can add pressure on emerging markets like India

Intraday Rational:

• Trend - consolidation range 25200-26000

• Levels - Buy around Friday’s close

Nifty Bank :61172

Week that was:

Index closed the week on strong note gaining 1.6% positive at 61172. Nifty PSU Bank outperformed gaining 5.4% and made new All time High at 9691.

Technical Outlook:

• Index began the week with a strong note however; midweek geopolitical worries fueled the volatility in the market. Consequently, weekly price action formed a bull candle engulfing previous week candle, indicating upward momentum to continue in coming weeks.

• Index is to open with a positive gap-up backed by ease in geopolitical worries Key point to highlight, is that despite heightened volatility index continues to trade firm above all key moving averages indicating near term uptrend intact. Thursday's session it rebounded after taking support at 61.8% of prior 3 days rally, while sustaining firmly above the 20-day EMA, signaling healthy profit booking after sharp upmove. Going ahead we expect Index to consolidate in the range 59700-61700 in coming weeks.

• Volatility is likely to remain elevated because of geopolitical uncertainty, therefore any corrective declines from current levels should be viewed as buying opportunities as strong demand zone is identified near 59,700, being 50-day EMA and 61.8% retracement of the current up move (57,783-61,674).

• Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank has formed new All time high and relatively outperformed the benchmark and now in overbought condition. Going ahead we expect it to go in consolidation mode also Private Bank Index is just 3% away from its All time high , we expect catch-up activity in Private Banks in coming week.

Intraday Rational:

• Trend- Supportive efforts in the vicinity of 20-day EMA

• Levels - Buy around Friday’s close

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