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Mixed Q4, Enquiry pipeline gathering pace

Triveni Turbine (TRIV) reported a mixed quarterly performance with revenue growth of 26.3% YoY, while EBITDA margin contracted by 354bps YoY to 18.8% largely impacted by adverse project mix, lower aftermarket contribution and execution of strategic lowmargin NTPC energy storage orders. However, order inflows remained healthy at Rs7.5bn (+19% YoY) driven by strong export demand and robust traction in aftermarket offerings the enquiry pipeline strengthened materially during the year, with global product inquiries rising to ~18GW while domestic inquiries doubled YoY to ~7GW, supported by thermal power expansion, industrial capex revival, renewable energy investments and rising data centre-linked power demand. Export order conversion environment is gradually improving despite geopolitical disruptions, with management expecting exports to outgrow domestic business in FY27. New growth avenues including geothermal, ORC, CO2-based energy storage, heat pumps and SMR-linked opportunities continue to gain traction, particularly across the US and Southeast Asia. Additionally, data centre-related opportunities now account for a significant portion of the inquiry pipeline supported by rising demand for combined-cycle power infrastructure and AI-driven energy investments. The aftermarket and API turbine businesses also continue to witness improving momentum, while the US subsidiary is expected to move towards profitability in FY27 supported by better operating leverage and improving local demand traction. The stock is trading at a P/E of 45.5x/38.0x on FY27/28E EPS. We roll forward to Mar’28E and downgrade our rating from ‘Accumulate’ to ‘Hold’ given recent rally in the stock price and valuing the stock at a PE of 38x Mar’28E (37x Sep’27E earlier) arriving at a TP of Rs638 (Rs585 earlier).

While we remain cautious on the near-term outlook given slower order finalizations amid geopolitical uncertainties however, its long-term prospects continue to remain strong due to

1) A healthy enquiry pipeline across markets

2) Growing share of higher margin exports & aftermarket sales

3) Strong traction in both industrial & API drive turbines

4) A robust order book with strong inflows across businesses.

Gross margin contraction impacted profitability:

Consolidated revenue increased by 26.3% YoY to Rs6.8bn (Ple: Rs6.5bn). Product sales grew by 30% YoY to Rs5.1bn and Aftermarket sales increased by 16.2% YoY to Rs1.7bn. Gross margin saw a sharp contraction of 893bps YoY to 41.1%. EBITDA grew by 6.3% YoY to Rs1.3bn (Ple: Rs1.4bn). EBITDA margin contracted by 354bps YoY to 18.8% primarily due to lower gross margin partially offset by operating leverage. PBT grew by 1.7% YoY to Rs1.3bn due to lower other income (-17.6% YoY to Rs164mn). PAT grew by 8.5% YoY to Rs1.0bn (Ple: Rs1.1bn) aided by lower effective tax rate (24.2% vs 28.4% YoY).

Strong order book of Rs20.5bn (0.9x TTM revenue):

Order intake increased by 19% YoY to Rs7.5bn (Product/Aftermarket mix of 50%/50%) primarily driven by export increased by 174.1% YoY partly offset by decline in domestic order intake by -47.4% to Rs2.3bn. The order book stood at Rs20.5bn with a export share (51% vs. 57% YoY) and a Product/Aftermarket mix of 74%/26%.

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SEBI Registration No. INH000000271Accumulate Paradeep Phosphates Ltd For Target Rs.141 by Prabhudas Liladhar Capital Ltd