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Gold

Gold prices fell by 1.16% to settle at 75,161 as strong U.S. employment data reduced the chances of a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Markets are now expecting a more conservative approach at the Fed's November meeting, with a 50-basis-point reduction being priced out after the robust jobs report. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have adjusted their expectations for future rate moves, waiting for additional signals from the minutes of the Fed's recent policy meeting and upcoming U.S. inflation data. Speculators increased their net long positions on COMEX by 6% to 976 tons in September, marking the highest level since February 2020. In India, gold demand improved slightly due to the upcoming festival season, but record-high prices have kept overall demand lower than usual. Dealers in India were offering discounts of up to $21 an ounce over official domestic prices, an increase from the previous week's $19 discount. Meanwhile, Chinese markets were closed for the Golden Week holiday, with weak demand resulting in widening discounts of $16-$7 per ounce. Global gold demand, excluding over-the-counter (OTC) trading, dropped 6% year-on-year to 929 metric tons in the second quarter, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), as high prices led to a 19% decline in jewelry consumption. Technically, the gold market is under long liquidation, with a 7.43% drop in open interest to 14,575 contracts. Prices have decreased by 884, with support now at 74,660, and further declines could test 74,155 levels. Resistance is expected at 75,895, and a move above this level could see prices testing 76,625.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 74155-76625.
* Gold fell as recent U.S. employment data priced out the chances of a bigger rate cut.
* Fed's September meeting minutes due on Wednesday
* Gold ETFs registered 5th month of inflows in Sept- WGC

Silver

Silver prices fell sharply by -3.93%, closing at 88,729, as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report shifted market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The robust employment data, which showed 254,000 jobs added in September—significantly beating estimates—prompted investors to dismiss the possibility of a 50-basis-point rate reduction by the Fed in November. Additionally, the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.1%, further supporting the narrative of a resilient labor market. These developments have dampened demand for non-yielding assets like silver, as higher interest rates diminish the appeal of precious metals. Silver also faced pressure as China’s National Development and Reform Commission briefing provided few details on additional stimulus measures. This has implications for silver’s industrial use, especially in China’s renewable energy sector, where the metal plays a key role in electrification technologies and solar panel manufacturing. On a brighter note, India’s silver imports surged in the first half of 2024, rising to 4,554 tons from 560 tons a year ago, driven by strong demand from the solar panel and electronics industries. Investors in India are also favoring silver as they anticipate better returns compared to gold, which could further support global prices. From a technical perspective, silver is experiencing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 12.42% to 29,237 contracts, while prices dropped by 3,628 rupees. Immediate support is at 87,225, and a break below could test 85,720 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 91,230, and a move above this level could push prices towards 93,730.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 85720-93730.
* Silver fell as US jobs report dampened expectations for more aggressive rate cuts.
* Prices also came under pressure after NDRC IN China provided few details on further stimulus measures.
* Upbeat US NFP report eased concerns about economic slowdown.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices dropped by 3.57% to settle at 6,244 as concerns over supply disruptions from the Israel-Iran conflict and a potential hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico eased. The market saw some relief after Hezbollah indicated openness to a ceasefire with Israel, while Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) resumed production, reaching 1.13 million barrels per day (bpd) after the resolution of internal disputes. U.S. oil demand increased by 1.2% month-over-month to 20.48 million bpd in July, the highest level for that month since 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). However, U.S. oil production declined for the second time in three months, dropping by 25,000 bpd in July. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose by 3.889 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline, while gasoline stocks also increased. In contrast, distillate stockpiles fell by 1.284 million barrels, below the expected 1.5 million drop. Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports in August declined by 7% year-on-year, although they showed a recovery from July's low levels. Weak refining margins and low fuel consumption continued to weigh on demand, contributing to slower growth in China’s oil imports. On the technical front, the crude oil market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 13.49% to 12,244 contracts. Support for crude oil is seen at 6,096, with further declines potentially testing 5,947. Resistance is now expected at 6,412, and a move above this level could lead to prices testing 6,579.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5947-6579.
* Crude oil dropped as fears of supply interruptions from the conflict between Israel and Iran eased.
* Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire with Israel.
* Libya's NOC says daily production reached 1.13 mln bpd of crude oil and condensate

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 0.7%, settling at 231.8, as output declined and demand forecasts for the next two weeks increased. Concerns over tropical storms affecting Gulf of Mexico production eased, reducing worries about potential supply disruptions. According to Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. increased by 3 to a total of 102, reflecting stable exploration activity. However, storage injections during July, August, and likely September were at record lows, based on federal energy data dating back to 1997. Gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged 101.0 bcfd in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September, and significantly below the record 105.5 bcfd set in December 2023. Additionally, LSEG forecasted 142 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, indicating slightly higher energy demand than previously estimated. U.S. natural gas production is projected to decline in 2024, while demand is expected to rise to a record high, according to the U.S. EIA. The EIA anticipates gas production will drop from a record 103.8 bcfd in 2023 to 103.4 bcfd in 2024. Storage levels rose by 55 bcf for the week ending September 27, 2024, below market expectations of a 57 bcf increase. Total U.S. gas stockpiles now stand at 3,547 bcf, which is 127 bcf higher than the same period last year and 190 bcf above the five-year average. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering as open interest dropped by -3.89% to 27,429 contracts while prices gained 1.6 rupees. Immediate support is at 228.1, with a potential test of 224.4 if breached. Resistance is expected at 234.7, with a move above potentially testing 237.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 224.4-237.6.
* Natural gas gains amid decline in output and forecasts for more demand.
* The outlook for tropical storms to move away from the Gulf of Mexico, easing concern about a disruption.
* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in US rose by 3 this week to 102.

Copper
Copper prices fell by 2.21% to settle at 834.95 as China’s economic stimulus measures failed to instill confidence in investors regarding the recovery of its economy. Despite a series of policies introduced in September to boost growth, including lower interest rates and easing of home purchase restrictions, market sentiment remains cautious. Copper stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have dropped nearly 60% since June, indicating some demand. However, China's unwrought copper imports hit a 16-month low in August at 415,000 metric tons, down 12.3% from a year earlier, due to weaker domestic demand. Imports for the first eight months of 2024 were still up 3% year-on-year. The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 91,000 metric tons in July, down from a surplus of 113,000 metric tons in June, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Year-to-date, the market posted a surplus of 527,000 metric tons, a significant increase from the 79,000 metric tons surplus in the same period last year. World refined copper production in July was 2.35 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.26 million metric tons, indicating an oversupply in the market. Additionally, copper concentrate imports into China declined by 4.7% in August compared to the previous year. Technically, copper is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 3.4% to 8,586 contracts. Prices declined by 18.9, and support is now at 827, with further downside potentially testing 819 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 847.5, and a move above this level could see prices testing 860.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 819-860.
* Copper fell after China failed to convince investors on how its stimulus would get the economy back on track.
* Stocks in warehouses tracked by the SHFE have dropped nearly 60% since early June to 141,625 tons.
* LME cash copper contract was trading at a discount of $149.50 a ton, the biggest discount since July 17

Zinc

Zinc prices fell by -2.65%, settling at 280.55, as markets were disappointed by the lack of additional stimulus measures from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in China. Despite this, Chinese authorities announced plans to expedite special-purpose bond issuances to support economic growth. Meanwhile, China has already implemented comprehensive economic support measures, such as reducing banks' reserve requirements and key lending rates, though markets are awaiting further fiscal signals. Zinc prices were also pressured by growing expectations of a less aggressive easing campaign by the Federal Reserve, following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for September. On the supply side, global zinc markets are expected to face a deficit of 164,000 metric tons in 2024, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), primarily due to reduced output in Europe and other regions. European production is forecast to fall by 11.4%, driven by cuts in Ireland and Portugal, with additional declines in China, Canada, South Africa, the U.S., and Peru. However, increases in output from Australia, Mexico, and Congo could offset these declines. In China, refined zinc production fell to 486,300 metric tons in August, a 0.68% month-over-month and a 7.64% year-over-year decline, impacted by factors like heavy rains and power rationing. Technically, the zinc market is experiencing long liquidation, as open interest dropped by -16.89% to 3,080 contracts while prices fell by -7.65 rupees. Immediate support is at 278.8, with a potential test of 276.9 if breached. Resistance is expected at 284, and a move above this level could push prices towards 287.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.9-287.3.
* Zinc dropped as a briefing from the NDRC in China signaled no additional stimulus measures
* Chinese authorities announced plans to speed up special purpose bond issuances to support economic growth.
* The global refined zinc market could see a 164,000 metric ton deficit in 2024

Aluminium
Aluminium prices dropped by 3.2% to settle at 234.75 due to profit booking, following recent gains spurred by economic support measures from the Chinese government. Beijing's aggressive fiscal stimulus package, coupled with the People's Bank of China's monetary stimulus, including liquidity injections and mortgage refinancing, aimed to help the economy achieve its 5% growth target. These measures provided an initial boost to industrial demand, particularly for aluminium. However, the market also faces risks around alumina supply in China, exacerbated by production issues in Guinea and Australia, which have contributed to upward pressure on prices. Additionally, tightness in the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium market has emerged, with a significant premium developing for the October contract. This reflects a large bullish position, with the premium rising to $18 per metric ton, compared to $5.85 three weeks ago and a discount of $17.50 in July. China's aluminium output in August hit its highest level since 2002 at 3.73 million metric tons, up 2.5% year-on-year, as higher prices and steady profits motivated smelters to maintain high production. For the first eight months of 2024, aluminium production in China reached 28.91 million tons, a 5.1% increase from the previous year. Technically, the aluminium market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 7.45% to 3,030 contracts. Prices fell by 7.75, with support at 232.9 and further downside potentially testing 230.9 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 238.5, and a move above this level could push prices to 242.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 230.9-242.1.
* Aluminium fell on profit booking after prices gained amid China’s economic support measures.
* The premium of LME October aluminium over November hit $18 a metric ton from a premium of $5.85 about three weeks ago.
* Global aluminium surplus seen at 200,000-300,000 T in 2025


Cotton Candy
Cotton Candy prices dropped by 0.16% to settle at 56,750 due to moderate demand and weak export activity, particularly to Bangladesh. However, the downside was limited by hopes of a demand revival from China after the implementation of stimulus measures and concerns over potential crop damage in key growing areas, exacerbated by Hurricane Helene. The USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, with ending stocks reduced to 12.38 million bales due to crop damage from excessive rains and pest issues. Acreage in the current kharif cropping season has also declined by around 9% to 110.49 lakh hectares, compared to 121.24 lakh hectares in the previous year. Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year are estimated to reach 28 lakh bales, an increase from the previous year’s 15.50 lakh bales, driven by strong demand from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam. However, imports of cotton have also risen to 16.40 lakh bales, up from 12.50 lakh bales last year. As per the Cotton Association of India (CAI), closing stocks as of September 30, 2024, are expected to be 23.32 lakh bales, down from 28.90 lakh bales a year ago. The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production and ending stocks, primarily due to reduced yields in key regions. Technically, the cotton market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 0.81% to 125 contracts. Prices fell by 90, with support at 56,560, and further declines could test 56,370. Resistance is expected at 56,880, and a move above this level could see prices testing 57,010.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56370-57010.
* Cotton dropped amid moderate demand, with weak export activity, particularly to Bangladesh.
* Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year or season ending September are estimated at about 80 per cent at 28 lakh bales
* The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices fell by -2.32%, closing at 13,370, amid lower demand and rising arrivals. However, the downside was limited by reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in the Nanded and Hingoli areas, with potential losses higher than initially estimated. Total arrivals were reported at 14,915 bags, slightly lower than the previous session's 16,975 bags, with a significant drop at Sangli, where only 890 bags arrived compared to 11,000 previously. Despite increased arrivals, concerns over crop damage and low supply could push prices higher in the coming weeks. However, this is tempered by reports of increased sowing, which may cap further price gains. In Indonesia, dry weather has accelerated harvesting, which is at its peak, adding pressure on prices. Rising acreage and low export demand could also lead to further price declines. In India, turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double compared to last year, while sowing in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh is estimated to be 30-35% higher. Overall, turmeric sowing is projected to increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares from last year's 3-3.25 lakh hectares. Turmeric exports from April to July 2024 dropped by 13.97%, but July saw a 9.17% year-on-year rise. On the import front, April-July 2024 saw a massive 429.58% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest down by -0.47% to 9,610 contracts as prices dropped by 318 rupees. Immediate support is at 13,168, with a potential test of 12,966 if breached. Resistance is expected at 13,696, with a move above potentially testing 14,022.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12966-14022.
* Turmeric dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* However downside seen limited amid reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in Nanded and Hingoli areas
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14294.95 Rupees gained by 1.24 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices rose by 0.62% to settle at 26,770, driven by strong domestic and export demand coupled with tight global supplies. Farmers are holding back stocks in anticipation of higher prices, which has provided additional support. However, the upside is capped due to expectations of a substantial increase in production this season. Jeera production is projected to rise by 30%, reaching 8.5-9 lakh tonnes, thanks to a significant increase in the sowing area in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Gujarat's sowing area surged by 104%, while Rajasthan's area increased by 16%. Globally, jeera production has also increased, with China leading the surge, nearly doubling its cumin output to 55-60 thousand tons. Turkey and Afghanistan are also expected to contribute more supply, which could pressure prices in the coming months. Despite the increased global production, India's jeera exports during April-July 2024 rose by 58.31% to 91,070.02 tonnes, with July exports alone showing a 110.15% increase compared to the same month last year. In India, the total production of cumin in Gujarat is estimated to reach a record 4.08 lakh tonnes, and Rajasthan's production has surged by 53%. Analysts expect cumin exports to increase, potentially reaching 14-15 thousand tonnes by February 2024, due to higher international demand and lower global prices. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with a 7.85% drop in open interest to 1,092 contracts while prices rose by 165. Support is seen at 26,590, and a break below this could test 26,390 levels. Resistance is expected at 26,990, and a move above this could push prices to 27,190.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26390-27190.
* Jeera gains amid robust domestic and export demand besides tight global supplies.
* However upside seen limited as the expectation of higher production weighed on the prices. cent.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26504.95 Rupees gained by 0.31 percent.

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