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Gold

Gold prices dropped by 0.98% to 72,333, driven by profit-taking after soft U.S. jobs data spurred prices to a one-month high on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September. Recent labor market data, showing a slackening trend, bolstered these expectations, with markets pricing in a 74% chance of a September rate cut and another potential cut in December. However, China's central bank did not add to its gold reserves for the second consecutive month in June, impacting the market sentiment. Additionally, the U.S. labor market data revealed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate and the lowest wage growth in three years, further supporting the view of an easing labor market and a potential dovish shift by the Fed. Globally, gold imports to China via Hong Kong fell 38% in April compared to March, marking a significant decline in the world’s largest gold consumer. This decline comes after a strong first quarter where gold consumption in China rose by 5.94% year-on-year. In contrast, in India, high prices continued to deter buyers, leading to discounts offered by dealers for the ninth consecutive week, as they awaited a potential import duty cut in the upcoming budget. Indian dealers offered up to $11 per ounce discounts, while in China, premiums ranged from $11 to $24 per ounce over international spot prices. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with a 5.31% drop in open interest to settle at 13,042 contracts. Prices are currently supported at 71,950, with further support potentially at 71,570 levels. Resistance is anticipated at 72,890, and a move above this level could see prices testing 73,450.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 71570-73450.
* Gold slipped as investors booked profits after soft U.S. jobs data
* PBOC refrains from gold purchases for a second month
* Markets are currently pricing in a 74% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September.
 
 
 Silver
Silver prices fell by 1% to 92,614, influenced by rising US Treasury bond yields amid increased probabilities of former President Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election. Despite this, soft US economic data has raised the odds for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September. Expectations that China will unveil more stimulus measures at the upcoming Third Plenum this month, aimed at achieving a 5% growth target, provided some support for silver prices. Additionally, robust demand from the solar panel sector continued to underpin the market. The strong momentum in solar power investment was highlighted by the connection of the world’s largest solar farm in Xinjiang. In other developments, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams noted that the level of interest rates that is neutral for the economy likely hasn’t risen much. India's silver imports in the first four months of the year have already surpassed the total for all of 2023, driven by rising demand from the solar panel industry and investor speculation on an outperformance versus gold. India, the world's biggest silver consumer, imported a record 4,172 metric tons of silver during January to April, a significant increase from 455 tons in the same period last year. Nearly half of this year's imports have come from the UAE, leveraging lower import duties. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with a 4.28% drop in open interest to settle at 23,410 contracts. Silver prices are currently supported at 91,790, with further support potentially at 90,975 levels. Resistance is expected at 93,655, and a move above this level could see prices testing 94,705.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 90975-94705.
* Silver declines as Trump effect pushes up Treasury yields
* Prices were also supported by expectations that China will unveil more stimulus measures at the upcoming Third Plenum this month.
* Demand for silver from the solar panel sector also continued to support the market.
 
 
 Crudeoil
Crude oil prices declined by 1.42% to 6,878 as markets continued to evaluate near-term supply threats. Hurricane Beryl, which reached Texan land, initially drove oil producers to adjust operations, but expectations that the storm would not significantly disrupt output led traders to unwind positions taken earlier in the month. The concerns about supply interruptions also lessened as Canadian wildfires did not significantly threaten Suncor’s infrastructure. In the U.S., the number of operating oil rigs remained unchanged at 479, holding at its lowest level since December 2021, according to Baker Hughes. However, U.S. oil production and demand rose to a four-month high in April, as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 13.25 million bpd, the highest since December. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell in the week ending June 28, according to the EIA. Crude inventories dropped by 12.2 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels, significantly more than the expected 680,000-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 345,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 260,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rates rose by 1.3 percentage points. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels to 231.7 million barrels, against expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, as evidenced by a 23.74% drop in open interest to settle at 5,102. Crude oil prices are currently supported at 6,850, with a further test of 6,821 levels possible. Resistance is now likely at 6,919, with a move above potentially testing 6,959 levels.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6821-6959.
* Crude oil dropped as markets continued to assess near-term threats to supply.
* A fresh wave of pessimism over energy demand in China also pressured crude oil.
* The number of operating oil rigs in the U.S. were unchanged at 479 last weeks, holding at its lowest since December 2021
 
 
 Naturalgas
Natural gas prices settled up by 1.12% at 197.8 due to concerns over Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall near Matagorda, Texas. The storm, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, led to the closure of key oil and gas ports, including Corpus Christi and Houston. Energy production facilities, such as refineries and offshore platforms, were also impacted, causing widespread power outages that affected nearly 490,000 homes and businesses. Additionally, the number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States increased by 4 to 101, according to data from Baker Hughes. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that utilities added 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ending June 28. Despite these developments, the downside for prices was limited due to a bullish heat wave expected to linger over much of the country through mid-July, increasing demand for natural gas. However, a bearish rise in output in July versus June and the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage tempered the bullish sentiment. Financial data firm LSEG noted that gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, up from 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 4.19% to settle at 32,967 while prices rose by 2.2 rupees. Natural gas is currently supported at 193.9, with further potential to test 190.1 levels. Resistance is now likely at 200.7, and a move above this level could see prices testing 203.7.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 190.1-203.7.
* Natural gas recovered due to concerns over Hurricane Beryl.
* EIA utilities added 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 28.
* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States rose by 4 to 101.
 
 
 Copper
Copper prices settled down by 0.62% at 869.8 amid persisting weak demand signals from top metals consumer China. Lacklustre demand in China has led to an inventory build-up, with deliverable stocks in SHFE warehouses nearing a four-year peak touched last month. A survey showed an unexpected decline in copper cable and wire producers' operation rates last week, further indicating weak demand. Investors are now hoping for additional stimulus measures at China's key third plenum meeting on July 15-18. Globally, poor macroeconomic data and price-sensitive physical copper demand, especially around $10,000, have capped further price gains. Chilean copper mining giant Codelco’s output continued to decline year-on-year in the first half of 2024 but is expected to improve in the second half. The global refined copper market showed a 13,000 metric tons surplus in April, down from 123,000 tons in March, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first four months of the year, the market was in a 299,000 metric tons surplus compared with 175,000 tons a year earlier. China's unwrought copper imports in May rose 15.8% year-on-year to 514,000 metric tons, despite weak physical consumption and high prices. In the first five months, China imported 2.33 million tons of unwrought copper and products, up 8.8% from the same period in 2023. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 0.37% to settle at 6780 while prices fell by 5.45 rupees. Copper is currently getting support at 865.4, with a potential test of 860.8 levels if it falls further. Resistance is expected at 876.4, with prices possibly testing 882.8 if they move upwards.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 860.8-882.8.
* Copper prices dropped amid persisting weak demand signals from China.
* Lacklustre demand in China has led to an inventory build-up.
* Investors are hoping that additional stimulus measures will be announced at China's key third plenum meeting on July 15-18.
 
 
 Zinc
Zinc prices settled down by 1.49% at 271.55 as inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone increased by 1,500 mt to 15,000 mt. Despite the closed zinc ingot import window, overseas zinc ingots have been flowing into the bonded zone, anticipating a future opening, which led to this rise in inventory. China's MMG Ltd has halted operations at its Dugald River zinc mine in Australia for about two months due to repair work. Investor sentiment is currently focused on the potential impact of incoming stimulus from Beijing on demand. Expectations are high that the Chinese government will unveil measures to support the country’s debt-ridden property market at the upcoming Third Plenum. Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses rebounded by 9% to their highest level in nearly three months, indicating a surplus of metal in the market. Despite this recent rebound, LME zinc stocks had earlier touched their highest levels since May 2021 at 276,100 tons in late February but had since declined by 13% until the recent increase. The global zinc market surplus fell to 22,100 metric tons in April from 70,100 tons in March, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest decreased by 2.61% to settle at 2682 while prices fell by 4.1 rupees. Zinc is currently supported at 270, with a potential test of 268.2 levels if it falls further. Resistance is expected at 274.9, with prices possibly testing 278 if they move upwards.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 268.2-278.
* Zinc dropped as inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was 15,000 mt, up 1,500 mt WoW.
* China's MMG Ltd has halted operations at a mill at its Dugald River zinc mine in Australia for about two months of repair work.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses registered with LME rebounded 9% to their highest level in nearly three months
 
 
 Aluminium
Aluminium prices settled down by 0.6% at 232.65, reflecting concerns over increased production in China. China's production of primary aluminium is nearing last year's record highs, driven by the ramp-up of previously idled capacity in Yunnan province. In May, production rose by 5% year-on-year to 3.65 million metric tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute. National output is close to an annualized 43.0 million tons, approaching the record highs observed in September and October last year. However, domestic alumina supply has struggled to keep pace with the increased demand from smelter restarts in Yunnan. While primary metal production rose by 5.4% in the first five months of the year, alumina output increased by just 3.4%.Global primary aluminium output rose by 3.4% year-on-year to 6.1 million tons in May, with China's aluminium production increasing by 7.2% to 3.65 million tons, as per data from the National Bureau of Statistics. China's aluminium imports surged by 61.1% in May from a year earlier, driven by rising shipments from Russia, which is subject to Western sanctions. China imported 310,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminium and products last month, with significant increases in shipments from Russia. Technically, the aluminium market is under long liquidation, with a 7.33% drop in open interest to settle at 3866. Prices are currently down by 1.4 rupees. Aluminium is getting support at 231.8, and below that, it could test 230.9 levels. Resistance is expected at 234, and a move above could see prices testing 235.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 230.9-235.3.
* Aluminium dropped as China's production is closing record highs as idled capacity ramps up in Yunnan.
* China’s increased production by 5% year-on-year to 3.65 million metric tons in May
* Domestic alumina supply has struggled to keep up with demand from the smelter restarts in Yunnan.
 
 
 Cottoncandy
Cotton candy prices settled down by 0.12% at 58,170, driven by expectations of favorable weather boosting supplies from key growing regions. However, the downside was limited due to delays in shipments from the US and Brazil, which has triggered demand for Indian cotton from mills in neighboring countries. A firm trend in cottonseed prices has also supported the market, even as sowing for the Kharif 2024 season begins in southern states like Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, which have started receiving monsoon rains. The 2024/25 US cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month, with production, domestic use, and exports unchanged. The season average upland farm price is down 4 cents from the May forecast to 70 cents per pound due to a decline in new-crop cotton futures. Ending stocks are 400,000 bales higher at 4.1 million, or 28% of use. Globally, the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet shows increased beginning stocks, production, and consumption, with world trade unchanged. World ending stocks are projected 480,000 bales higher than in May at 83.5 million. The forecast for production is raised by 90,000 bales due to higher area and yield in Burma. Consumption is 80,000 bales higher with increases in Vietnam and Burma offsetting reductions elsewhere. In Rajkot, a major spot market, cotton prices ended at 27,673.95 Rupees, dropping by 0.04%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with a drop in open interest by 0.27% to settle at 370, while prices are down by 70 rupees. Currently, cotton candy is getting support at 57,990, and a break below this level could see prices testing 57,810. Resistance is likely to be seen at 58,370, and a move above could see prices testing 58,570.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57810-58570.
* Cotton dropped tracking ICE cotton prices on expectations of good weather boosting supplies.
* China's agriculture ministry raised its forecast for cotton imports in the 2023/24 crop year by 200,000 metric tons
* The 2024/25 U.S. cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.
 
 
 Turmeric
Turmeric prices settled down by 3.85% at 15,246 due to news of increased sowing, although the downside is limited as farmers are holding back stocks in anticipation of further price rises. The prospects of fair prices for their produce have motivated farmers to increase sowing across major producing states. In Erode, turmeric sowing has reportedly doubled compared to last year, while in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, an increase of 30-35% in sowing is estimated. Last year, turmeric was sown on approximately 3-3.25 lakh hectares across the country, and this year the sowing area is expected to increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares. Last year's low sowing area and unfavorable weather conditions resulted in an estimated production of 45-50 lakh bags of turmeric for the year 2024, with an additional outstanding stock of 35-38 lakh bags. Despite the increase in sowing during the current season, the upcoming turmeric crop is projected to be around 70-75 lakh bags, with the outstanding stock expected to be depleted to zero. Consequently, the availability of turmeric in 2025 is anticipated to be less than consumption, despite the high production and leftover stock seen in 2023, when production was 80-85 lakh bags with an outstanding stock of 25-30 lakh bags. Exports of turmeric dropped significantly, with around 14,109.09 tonnes exported in April 2024, a 19.07% decrease from 17,432.83 tonnes in March 2024, and a 27.98% drop from 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023. Technically, the turmeric market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 21.76% drop in open interest to settle at 15,770 contracts, while prices fell by 610 rupees. Turmeric currently finds support at 14,852, with a potential test of 14,460 levels if it drops below this support. Resistance is anticipated at 15,734, and a move above this level could see prices testing 16,224.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14460-16224.
* Turmeric prices dropped amid news of increased sowing.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year.
* Turmeric was sown in about 3/3.25 lakh hectares in the country last year, which is estimated to increase to 3.75/4 lakh hectares this year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16700.8 Rupees dropped by -3.15 percent.
 
 
 Jeera
Jeera prices settled down by 2.19% at 27,885 amid expectations of higher production, which could weigh on prices. Despite the decline, the downside was limited due to robust domestic and export demand alongside tight global supplies. This season, jeera production is projected to increase by 30% to 8.5-9 lakh tonnes, driven by a substantial rise in the cultivation area. Sowing area in Gujarat increased by 104%, and in Rajasthan by 16%. Global jeera production has also surged, with China's output more than doubling to over 55-60 thousand tons. High prices from the previous season incentivized increased production in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, with Turkey expecting 12-15 thousand tons and Afghanistan's output potentially doubling. As these new supplies enter the market, cumin prices are expected to decline. The total production of jeera in Gujarat is estimated to reach a record 4.08 lakh tonnes, surpassing the previous record of 3.99 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. In Rajasthan, production increased by 53%. Overall, production has doubled this year compared to last year due to increased sowing area and favorable weather conditions. In April 2024, jeera exports reached 38,026.96 tonnes, an 18.37% increase from March 2024's 32,126.66 tonnes and a 133.55% rise from April 2023's 16,281.87 tonnes. In the Unjha spot market, prices ended at 28,131 rupees, down by 1.7%. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh selling pressure, with open interest surging by 1241.42% to settle at 28,210 contracts while prices fell by 625 rupees. Jeera currently finds support at 27,710, with a potential test of 27,540 levels if it drops below this support. Resistance is anticipated at 28,150, and a move above this level could see prices testing 28,420.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 27540-28420.
* Jeera dropped as the expectation of higher production could weigh on the prices.
* China's cumin output soared to over 55-60 thousand tons from the previous 28-30 thousand tons.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 28131 Rupees dropped by -1.7 percent.

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