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Gold:

Gold experienced a marginal decline of -0.03%, closing at 61964, as traders analyzed the latest economic data and speculated on the Federal Reserve's potential actions regarding interest rate cuts. The U.S. labor market added an element of uncertainty with a notable increase in first-time unemployment benefit applications. Weekly jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 214,000, signaling potential challenges in the labor market, and continuing jobless claims also saw a rise. Despite the labor market concerns, the U.S. economy demonstrated strength by exceeding expectations, with a fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth of 3.3%, surpassing the anticipated 2.0%. However, it fell short of the final Q3 estimate of 4.9%. Inflation remained below consensus, contributing to the overall economic narrative. Internationally, China's gold market showed positive trends, with production increasing by 0.84% to 375.155 metric tons in 2023. Additionally, China's gold consumption rose by 8.78% to 1089.69 tons. However, the Indian government's decision to increase import duty on precious metals raised concerns about potential impacts on global gold trade. Technically, the gold market indicated a shift towards long liquidation, with a significant -24.67% drop in open interest, settling at 3790. Despite a decline in prices by -21 rupees, support is identified at 61815, and a breach could lead to a test of 61675. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 62120, and a breakthrough could propel prices towards 62285.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 61675-62285.

* Gold settled flat as traders assess Fed move regarding interest rate cuts.

* Weekly jobless claims in the U.S. increase to 214,000

* U.S. economy grows above expectations at 3.3%

Silver:

Silver prices faced a modest decline of -0.13%, settling at 71773, influenced by robust U.S. economic growth that strengthened the dollar. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates unchanged, emphasizing its commitment to combat inflation, despite potential recessionary risks and disinflation signals. The ECB's stance contributed to the prevailing strength of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a higher-than-expected economic growth rate of 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2%. This upbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the current quarter, following a strong 4.9% rise in the previous quarter, weakened arguments for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Stronger U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for January, coupled with a resilient labor market and robust consumer spending, painted a picture of economic resilience, leading to reconsideration of potential rate cuts by the Fed. The CME Fedwatch tool reflected a shift in market expectations, with the likelihood of a 25 basis-points interest rate cut in March dropping to 42.4%. This change underscores the belief that a more restrictive monetary policy may be premature given the positive economic indicators in the U.S. Technically, the silver market indicated a move towards long liquidation, with a -0.42% drop in open interest, settling at 26193. Despite the decline in prices by -96 rupees, support is identified at 71505, with a potential test of 71230 if breached. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 72140, and a breakthrough could lead to a testing of 72500.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 71230-72500.

* Silver pared gains due to strong growth in the US economy and a firm dollar

* ECB keeps rates steady and pledges to combat inflation

* The US economy grew strongly by 3.3% while investors projected GDP expansion by 2%.

Crude oil:

Crude oil prices surged by 2.05%, settling at 6381, driven by multiple factors that contributed to a bullish market sentiment. China's unexpected reduction in the reserve requirement for banks aimed at boosting economic recovery served as a significant catalyst. The move injected liquidity into the market, heightening expectations of increased demand for crude oil in tandem with an anticipated economic rebound. Furthermore, the substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories provided additional support to the upward trajectory in crude oil prices. Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed a remarkable decline of 9.2 million barrels for the week ending January 19, surpassing market expectations of a 2.2 million barrel reduction. This unexpected drawdown followed a 2.5 million barrel reduction in the previous week. The American Petroleum Institute's data also reflected a substantial decrease of 6.7 million barrels, defying the market's anticipation of a more modest 3 million barrel decline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its plans to expedite the release of its first 2025 oil demand forecast, aligning with a similar move by OPEC. Both organizations intend to provide updated insights earlier than initially scheduled, reflecting the dynamic nature of the oil market. Technically, the crude oil market exhibited signs of short covering, with a -0.04% drop in open interest, settling at 11212. Despite the 128 rupee increase in prices, support is identified at 6263, and a breach could lead to a test of 6144. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 6446, with a potential breakout paving the way for prices to test 6510.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6144-6510.

* Crude oil surged due to China’s stimulus and larger-than-expected US inventory draw

* China reduced the reserve requirement for banks, allowing for a liquidity infusion to support economic recovery.

* EIA reported a decline of 9.2 million barrels in crude oil inventories, larger than the expected decline of 2.2 million barrels.

Natural gas:

Natural gas prices experienced a decline of -1.78%, settling at 182.5, driven primarily by weather forecasts indicating warmer-than-normal conditions through early February. This outlook, coupled with the gradual return of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to full service after last week's Arctic freeze, weighed on natural gas demand and contributed to the drop in prices. The recent Arctic freeze had initially led to a surge in gas demand, setting a daily record high, and simultaneously reducing U.S. gas output and LNG feedgas to a one-year low. Despite forecasts for higher demand in the upcoming week and the slow recovery of output from the extreme cold, natural gas prices fell.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a substantial withdrawal of 326 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended January 19, a consequence of last week's extreme cold. This withdrawal was the largest since the freeze in February 2021, and the second-largest in history after the all-time record of 359 bcf in January 2018. From a technical standpoint, the natural gas market indicated fresh selling pressure, with a notable 10.37% increase in open interest, settling at 51063. Despite a decrease in prices by -3.3 rupees, support is identified at 177.7, and a breach could lead to a test of 172.9. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 191.1, and a breakthrough could pave the way for prices to test 199.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 172.9-199.7.

* Natural gas dropped due to warmer weather forecasts and slow recovery of LNG export plants.

* Output of natural gas has been slow to return after wells and equipment froze during the recent Arctic freeze.

* Extreme cold last week led to record high gas demand and decreased gas output and LNG feedgas.

Copper:

Copper prices experienced a marginal decline of -0.05%, settling at 729.5, influenced by optimistic developments in China's policy support for its economy. The announcement of a deep cut to bank reserves by China's central bank, injecting around $140 billion into the banking system, sent a strong signal of support for the country's fragile economy. Additionally, reports indicated that Chinese authorities were planning to mobilize approximately 2 trillion yuan for a stabilisation fund aimed at purchasing shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link. Despite the positive developments in China, concerns about slowing growth in physical consumption of nonferrous metals and mixed global macroeconomic data tempered further price rallies. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 119,000 metric tons deficit in the global refined copper market for November, compared to a 48,000 metric tons deficit in October. World refined copper output in November reached 2.26 million metric tons, while consumption stood at 2.38 million metric tons. When adjusted for changes in inventory in Chinese bonded warehouses, there was a 128,000 metric tons deficit in November, up from a 70,000 metric tons deficit in October, as highlighted by the ICSG. From a technical perspective, the copper market showed signs of long liquidation, marked by a -1.6% drop in open interest, settling at 4544. Despite a nominal decrease in prices by -0.4 rupees, support is identified at 727.9, and a breach could lead to a test of 726.2. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 731.9, and a breakthrough might propel prices to test 734.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 726.2-734.2.

* Copper remained srteady due to optimism on policy support in China.

* China's central bank announced a deep cut to bank reserves, injecting $140 billion into the banking system*

* The global refined copper market showed a deficit of 119,000 metric tons in November.

Zinc:

Zinc prices remained unchanged at 228.1, receiving support from a cut in bank reserves in China, the world's top metals consumer. China's central bank announced a significant reduction in the cash reserves that banks are required to hold, injecting around $140 billion into the banking system. The Chinese cabinet pledged additional measures to bolster market stability, including increased injections of medium- and long-term funds into the capital market. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed that the global zinc market deficit expanded to 71,600 metric tons in November 2023 from 62,500 tons in October. However, for the first 11 months of 2023, the ILZSG reported a surplus of 211,000 tons, a significant shift from the deficit of 86,000 tons in the same period of 2022. China's refined zinc output in December 2023 increased to 590,900 metric tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 2.05% and a year-on-year increase of 12.38%, surpassing previous estimates. The cumulative refined zinc output for the entire year reached 6.622 million metric tons, marking a robust year-on-year increase of 10.77%. Additionally, domestic zinc alloy production in December reached 102,900 metric tons, up by 9,600 metric tons from the previous month. From a technical standpoint, the zinc market indicated fresh selling pressure, with a 1.42% increase in open interest, settling at 3346. Despite prices remaining unchanged at 228.1, support is identified at 227, and a breach could lead to a test of 225.7. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 229.9, and a breakthrough might propel prices to test 231.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 225.7-231.5.

* Zinc settled flat after prices rose due to cut in bank reserves in China

* China's cabinet pledges to stabilize market confidence

* Global zinc market deficit increased in November 2023

Aluminium:

Aluminium prices experienced a marginal decline of -0.05%, settling at 203.05, driven by profit booking after a period of support fueled by optimism about Chinese policy measures following a seasonal lull. China's central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced a 50 basis points reduction in the reserve requirements for banks starting from February 5, the first such move this year. The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported that in November 2023, global primary aluminum production reached 5.8613 million tons, consumption was 5.9714 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of around 80,000 tons. Notably, global bauxite production stood at approximately 32.35 million tons, with global alumina output reaching 11.82 million tons. For the first 11 months of 2023, there was a surplus of around 600,000 tons in the global primary aluminum market, as production totaled 63.8 million tons, and consumption was 63.2 million tons. In December, global primary aluminum output rose 2.1% year on year to 6.041 million tonnes, according to data from the IAI. Additionally, China's aluminium imports surged by 28% in 2023, as per customs data, driven by robust demand and higher prices in the world's largest consumer market for the metal. From a technical standpoint, the aluminium market showed signs of long liquidation, with a -1.9% drop in open interest, settling at 3871. Despite a marginal decrease in prices by -0.1 rupees, support is identified at 201.7, and a breach could lead to a test of 200.2. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 204.2, and a breakthrough might propel prices to test 205.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.2-205.2.

* Aluminium pared gains on profit booking after seen supported by Chinese policy support

* China's imports of aluminum increased by 28% in 2023

* China's central bank injects $140 billion into banking system

Cotton candy:

Cotton candy prices saw a modest uptick, closing 0.45% higher at 57500, buoyed by a surge in overseas prices supported by a drawdown in unsold inventories and a weakened U.S. dollar. The global cotton market witnessed adjustments in consumption forecasts for the 2023/24 season, with a reduction of 1.3 million bales due to lower estimates for India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkey. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) maintained its estimate for domestic cotton consumption for the 2023-24 season at 311 lakh bales. Pressing estimates for the season stood at 294.10 lakh bales, and total cotton supply until the end of the season (September 30, 2024) remained at 345 lakh bales, as per CAI's observations. Brazil witnessed record-high cotton production in the 2022-23 season, driven by expanded cultivation and improved productivity. The infestation of pink bollworm in the Indian cotton crop has declined, dropping from 30.62% during 2017-18 to 10.80% in 2022-23. Reports suggest a reduction in pink bollworm infestation across cotton-growing areas in the north, central, and south zones of the country. In November, Brazilian cotton shipments increased by 12%, reaching 253.71 thousand tons compared to October 2023. However, it marked a 5.5% decrease compared to November 2022. Globally, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected that cotton production would likely outpace consumption for the second consecutive year. Technically, the cotton candy market experienced short-covering, with open interest remaining unchanged at 176. Despite a price increase of 260 rupees, support is identified at 57020, with a potential test of 56550 if breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 57780, and a breakthrough might propel prices to test 58070.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57200-58560.

* Cotton gains amid rise in overseas prices supported by a drawdown in unsold inventories

* World 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast 2.0 million bales higher this month driven by higher beginning stocks.

* World production is 260,000 bales higher with China’s crop up 500,000 bales and Argentina’s production higher as well

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26743.8 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.

Turmeric:

Turmeric prices remained unchanged, closing at 15808, driven by weaker production prospects and tighter stocks in the market. The market found support from improved export opportunities, but upside potential was limited as buying activities slowed in anticipation of stock releases ahead of the commencement of new crops in January 2024. Additionally, pressure was observed due to improved crop conditions resulting from favorable weather conditions. However, the crop condition across regions was reported to be satisfactory, with harvest expected during January to March. The current levels of buying activity, coupled with decreasing supplies, were anticipated to sustain price stability. Turmeric exports during April-November 2023 dropped by 1.07% to 110,745.38 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. In November 2023, turmeric exports were at 8,582.44 tonnes, showing a decline of 15.34% from October 2023 and 30.78% from November 2022. Expectations of a 20-25% decline in turmeric seeding, particularly in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, were attributed to farmers' shifting priorities. The demand for turmeric has witnessed an increase in both developed and emerging nations, leading to a 25% growth in exports. Technically, the turmeric market experienced long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 13,305 while prices also remained unchanged. Support is identified at 15570, and a breach could lead to a test of 15330 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 16110, with a breakthrough possibly pushing prices to test 16410.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15140-16736.

* Turmeric gains amid weaker production prospects and tighter stocks in the market.

* While Support is also evident for improved export opportunities.

* However, upside seen limited as buying activities has been slower in expectation new crops.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13829.35 Rupees gained by 0.54 percent.

Jeera:

Jeera prices remained stagnant at 28350 due to increased production expectations in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The current rabi season witnessed a four-year high in jeera acreage, with Gujarat and Rajasthan leading the expansion. In Gujarat, cultivation soared by 160%, reaching 5.60 lakh hectares, well above the normal acreage of 3.5 lakh hectares. Rajasthan also experienced a 25% increase, reaching 6.90 lakh hectares. This surge is attributed to the previous season's record prices, prompting farmers to expand cultivation. However, global demand for Indian jeera declined, as buyers favored alternatives like Syria and Turkey due to higher prices. Challenges such as lower water availability, fewer cold days, and concerns about fusarium wilt and pest attacks impact the cultivation outlook. Jeera exports for Apr-Nov 2023 dropped by 33.10%, with November showing a rise of 30.04% compared to October but a drop of 22.89% compared to the same month in 2022. Jeera imports during Apr-Nov 2023 plummeted by 1,134.63%, with November experiencing a significant drop of 81.18% compared to October but a remarkable increase of 1,426.38% compared to November 2022. In the Unjha spot market, prices ended at 32407 Rupees, dropping by -0.03%. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation with unchanged open interest at 1896. Jeera's support is at 27530, with potential testing of 26690 levels, while resistance is expected at 28980, and a move above could lead to testing prices at 29590.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 26910-29110.

* Jeera prices dropped due to higher production prospects

* In Gujarat, Cumin sowing witnessed very strong growth by nearly 103% with 530,030.00 hectares against sown area of 2022

* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 32407 Rupees dropped by -0.03 percent.

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