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Daily comment as on Tuesday, 27 January 2026

Gold prices settled marginally lower by 0.19% at 156,037, witnessing profit booking after scaling record highs. The broader trend remains supported by fading confidence in U.S. assets, persistent geopolitical tensions, and elevated global economic uncertainty. Market participants continue to factor in a cautious Federal Reserve stance, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged at the January meeting, while expectations of two rate cuts in the second half of 2026 continue to underpin bullion sentiment. U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, reinforcing the view of policy stability in the near term. On the global front, geopolitical developments around Greenland eased immediate tariff concerns, though uncertainty lingers. Gold fundamentals remain strong, with London vault holdings rising 2.24% month-on-month, reflecting sustained investor interest. Major banks have turned increasingly bullish: Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, HSBC, and UBS all raised their 2026 gold forecasts, citing safe-haven demand, rising debt, dollar weakness, and growing private-sector diversification into gold. Central bank buying remains a key pillar, led by China and Poland, highlighting continued official-sector accumulation. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, as open interest fell 6.16% alongside a price decline of ?304. Gold has immediate support at 154,445; a break below could extend losses toward 152,860. On the upside, resistance is seen at 158,420, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward 160,810.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152860-160810.

* Gold rose supported by fading confidence in US assets, persistent geopolitical tensions, and broader economic uncertainty.

* Central bank buying and a broader move away from the dollar have underpinned gold's rise.

* Gold premiums in India jumped to their highest in more than a decade, while China premiums dipped.

Silver prices surged sharply, settling up by 2.26% at 334,699, supported by robust demand, persistent supply tightness, and ongoing challenges in scaling up refining capacity. Investor appetite for real assets strengthened as the U.S. dollar weakened amid shifting U.S.–Europe geopolitical dynamics over Greenland and concerns that Europe could potentially leverage its large holdings of U.S. assets. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next week, alongside market pricing for two possible rate cuts later in the year, further supported precious metals. Speculation that President Trump may appoint a more dovish Fed chair also added to easing expectations. The rally was reinforced by a historic short squeeze, strong retail participation, and China’s tightening export controls. Macroeconomic data remained supportive, with U.S. GDP expanding at a strong 4.4% annualized pace in Q3 2025, while jobless claims stayed well below expectations, signaling continued economic resilience. On the supply side, Chinese silver inventories have fallen to decade lows, raising fresh concerns about global liquidity despite rising exports and increased London vault holdings. Commerzbank and HSBC raised long-term price forecasts, citing safe-haven demand, a weaker dollar, and structural supply-demand deficits, albeit with warnings of elevated volatility. Technically, silver is under fresh buying interest, as open interest rose 2.02% alongside a price gain of ?7,410. Immediate support is seen at 328,165; a break below could test 321,620. Resistance stands at 340,590, and a decisive move above this level may push prices toward 346,470.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 321620-346470.

* Silver rose driven by robust demand, challenges in scaling up refining of the metal and a persistent supply shortage in the market.

*  The rally in silver has also been fueled by a historic short squeeze and strong retail buying, as well as China's tightening export controls.

* Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its January 27–28 meeting, but markets still expect two further rate cuts in the second half of 2026.

Crude oil prices rallied sharply, settling up by 3.49% at 5,630, driven primarily by heightened geopolitical risk after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats against Iran, raising fears of potential supply disruptions. Additional support came from outages in Kazakhstan, where production at the major Tengiz oilfield remains suspended following a fire. Saudi Aramco’s CEO reiterated confidence in strong underlying demand, noting record global consumption last year and expectations for further growth in 2026. Fundamentally, the outlook remains mixed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast higher to 930,000 bpd, while still projecting a sizeable supply surplus, albeit slightly narrower than previously estimated. The U.S. EIA expects crude production to ease from record levels in 2026–27, while domestic petroleum demand is projected to remain stable. However, inventory data weighed on sentiment, with U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks rising well above expectations, signaling near-term supply comfort. OPEC+ production edged higher in November, though the group maintained expectations for steady demand growth amid a resilient global economy. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, as open interest rose 0.72% alongside a price increase of ?190. Crude oil has immediate support at 5,524; a break below could test 5,419. Resistance is seen at 5,692, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 5,755.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5419-5755.

* Crude oil prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats against Iran, raising concerns of military action.

* IEA reiterated that global oil supply is likely to exceed demand this year, even after slightly revising its demand growth forecast upward.

* US crude stocks rose by 3.602 million barrels, compared with market expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel build.

Natural gas prices settled marginally higher by 0.74% at 328.8, extending an extraordinary rally as markets braced for a historic winter storm. Prices are on course for their largest weekly gain on record, rising more than 65% since the start of the week, driven by forecasts of widespread below-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. Severe freezing conditions, particularly in southern gas-producing regions, have raised concerns about ice formation in pipelines, potentially disrupting production and LNG exports. Meteorologists expect colder-than-normal weather to persist through early February, with the most intense cold between January 24 and 31. Fundamentally, storage data showed a withdrawal of 120 bcf last week, taking inventories down to 3.065 tcf. While the draw exceeded expectations, stockpiles remain about 6.1% above the five-year average, reflecting earlier mild weather. Production has eased, with Lower-48 output averaging 108.6 bcfd in January and daily output set to fall to a three-month low due to declines in North Dakota and Oklahoma. Longer term, the EIA expects U.S. gas production to rise to record levels in 2026, even as domestic demand softens, while LNG exports continue to grow. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 1.31% alongside a ?2.4 price gain. Immediate support lies at 315.9; a break below could test 302.9. Resistance is seen at 339.8, and a move above this level may push prices toward 350.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 302.9-350.7.

* Natural gas rose as the market continued to brace for a historic winter storm.

* Support also seen driven by forecasts for widespread below-normal temperatures across most of the country.

* Storage data showed inventories fell 120 billion cubic feet to 3.065 trillion cubic feet last week, a larger draw than expected.

Copper prices settled higher by 0.84% at 1,283.8, supported by supply-side disruptions and easing geopolitical anxieties. The most immediate catalyst was the near-halt in production at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in northern Chile, where a prolonged labor strike led to the shutdown of the desalination plant, threatening a complete stoppage of output. Broader supply concerns persist across major producers, with Chilean state miner Codelco reporting a 3% year-on-year decline in November output and BHP’s Escondida mine posting a sharp 12.8% fall. Peru’s November copper production also declined 11.2% year-on-year, highlighting ongoing operational challenges in key mining regions. These constraints contrast with mixed inventory signals. While Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose 5.8% week-on-week and the global refined copper market remained in surplus, availability in LME registered warehouses dropped 22% to a six-month low as metal continued to flow toward the United States. From a macro and outlook perspective, Goldman Sachs raised its first-half 2026 copper price forecast, citing scarcity premiums and limited inventory coverage outside the U.S., though it does not expect prices above $13,000 per ton to be sustained. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 24.38% alongside a ?10.75 price gain. Copper has immediate support at 1,272.1; a break below could test 1,260.2. Resistance is seen at 1,293.6, and a move above this level may open the path toward 1,303.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1260.2-1303.2.

* Copper prices rose as striking workers force production halt at Chile's Mantoverde mine

* Freeport expects about 85% of Grasberg mine output to be back online in H2 this year.

# Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 5.8 % from last Friday.

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.27% to settle at 312.8, supported by tightening inventory conditions and near-term supply concerns. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.1% from last Friday, while the LME cash zinc contract trading at a $14 per tonne discount to the three-month forward indicated modest nearby tightness. Additional support came from expectations of reduced concentrate availability, as several Chinese mines are scheduled for routine maintenance. Notably, a southwest China operation plans to cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes of metal content, while a central China mine is also set for a maintenance shutdown, reducing effective production days. Macro factors were mixed. A weaker U.S. dollar lent support after President Donald Trump initially threatened tariffs on European countries before softening his stance following a framework agreement with NATO. In China, sentiment improved marginally as industrial output growth accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year in December and fourth-quarter GDP slightly exceeded expectations. Globally, the zinc market deficit widened to 7,700 tons in November, though the refined market still posted a surplus for the first 11 months of 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling sharply by 28.31% while prices gained ?0.85. Zinc has support at 311.9; a break below could test 311. Resistance is seen at 313.8, and a move above this level may push prices toward 314.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 311-314.8.

* Zinc prices rose as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.1% from last Friday.

* The LME cash zinc contract traded $14 per tonne below the three-month forward, suggesting modest near-term tightness.

* The global zinc market deficit rose to 7,700 metric tons in November from 2,800 tons in October - ILZSG

Aluminium prices settled modestly higher by 0.33% at 316.25, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and strength across the broader base metals complex. The dollar was on track for its steepest weekly decline since June, as geopolitical tensions and abrupt policy signals around Greenland unsettled investor sentiment. Prices also drew support from improving risk appetite, with investors reassessing expectations of tightening supply conditions alongside signs of stabilizing global demand. In China, sentiment improved after the central bank reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity and support economic growth. Fundamentally, the supply-demand balance remains constructive despite mixed inventory signals. The International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium output rising 0.5% year-on-year in December. China’s aluminium production rose 3.0% year-on-year in December, and imports of unwrought aluminium and products rebounded strongly, rising 7.1% from a year earlier. However, inventories increased in the near term, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks up 6.0% week-on-week and aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports also edging higher. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping 23.48% alongside a ?1.05 price gain. Aluminium has immediate support at 314.1; a break below could test 311.9. Resistance is seen at 317.7, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 319.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 311.9-319.1.

* Aluminium rose as prices getting support from a weaker dollar, growth in other metals.

* PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 and will utilize tools such as RRR cuts to ensure sufficient liquidity.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.0% from last Friday.

Turmeric prices declined by 1.64% to settle at 17,562, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favorable rainfall during the current sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, supply growth is expected to remain moderate as weather irregularities, unseasonal rains, and localized disease pressure have offset gains from higher planted area. In key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, yields have been impacted by excessive rainfall, with nearly 15–20% losses reported in affected pockets. Despite near-term price weakness, downside appears limited due to lower-than-normal arrivals and reduced stocks held by both farmers and stockists. Demand remains firm domestically and internationally, supported by strong export activity. Turmeric exports during April–November 2025 rose nearly 5% year-on-year, with November shipments posting strong monthly and annual growth. Import volumes, meanwhile, declined sharply, further supporting domestic balances. Spot prices in Nizamabad ended marginally higher, reflecting underlying firmness. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, as open interest rose 3.29% while prices fell ?292. Immediate support is seen at 17,080; a break below could test 16,600. Resistance is placed at 18,100, and a move above this level may push prices toward 18,640.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16600-18640.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16848.15 Rupees gained by 0.25 percent.

Jeera prices declined sharply by 2.24% to settle at 24,255, weighed down by comfortable supplies and subdued export demand amid adequate existing stocks. The end of the retail season and continued caution among overseas buyers further pressured prices, with most current export requirements being met from available inventories. Spot prices in Unjha, the key physical market, also eased by 0.57%, reflecting weak near-term sentiment. Despite this, downside remains limited due to persistently low arrivals and delayed sowing, particularly in Gujarat, where jeera sowing has fallen to 3.98 lakh hectares, down over 16% year-on-year, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Supply-side concerns continue to offer underlying support. Weather disruptions and logistical challenges across India and the Middle East are keeping near-term supplies tight, while geopolitical instability in other major producing countries such as Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and China has curtailed global availability. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with reduced output expected in both Gujarat and Rajasthan. Although farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags, limited marketable surplus and GST reduction to 5% are expected to support demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.84% alongside a ?555 price decline. Jeera has support at 23,900; a break below could test 23,540. Resistance is seen at 24,870, and a move above this level may push prices toward 25,480.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23540-25480.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476097 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23551.95 Rupees dropped by -0.57 percent.

Amit Gupta

Research Support

Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.