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Gold 

Gold prices surged 1.96% to settle at Rs 145,680, supported by renewed safe-haven buying as investors closely monitored the escalating Middle East conflict and shifted focus toward next week's U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. Rising geopolitical tensions, including continued uncertainty over Iran and disruptions to Red Sea shipping following Houthi threats, lifted crude oil prices and reinforced inflation concerns. Higher energy prices have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer, with most analysts now viewing the probability of an interest rate hike later this year as high despite expectations that rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting. On the physical market front, Swiss gold exports declined 3% in June as weaker shipments to Britain and China offset stronger exports to India and Saudi Arabia. Exports to the UK fell to 27.4 tonnes from 39.4 tonnes, while shipments to China eased to 27.9 tonnes from 31.6 tonnes. In contrast, exports to India rebounded sharply to 7.4 tonnes after exceptionally weak May shipments, while deliveries to Saudi Arabia nearly quadrupled to 10.3 tonnes. Russia's official gold reserves declined to 2,282 tonnes at the beginning of July, although the value of its holdings increased to approximately $299 billion. Meanwhile, Indian gold discounts widened to a one-month high of up to $45 per ounce amid weak jewellery demand, whereas premiums across China and other Asian markets remained largely stable. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes by the end of June. Technically, gold witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 3.31% while prices advanced sharply. Immediate support is placed at Rs 144,660, followed by Rs 143,640, whereas resistance is seen at Rs 146,350. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 147,020.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 143640-147020.

* Gold rose as investors assessed the widening Middle East conflict and awaited the Fed meeting next week for clues on the interest rate outlook.

* U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is still willing to negotiate an end to the Iran crisis but Tehran is not serious about talks.

* Swiss gold exports slip 3% in June as shipments to Britain fall

Silver

Silver prices advanced 1.44% to settle at Rs 226,998, supported by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices, which strengthened safe-haven demand while raising concerns over inflation. Market sentiment remained cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled limited prospects for immediate negotiations with Iran and warned of further military action. Additional disruptions to Red Sea shipping by Iran-backed Houthi rebels and attacks affecting Russian energy infrastructure further intensified supply concerns in global energy markets, reinforcing expectations of sustained inflationary pressures. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. labor market data showed private employers added an average of just 16,500 jobs per week during the four weeks ending July 4, marking the fourth consecutive slowdown in hiring. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, although expectations for a September rate hike have risen above 55%. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, and Chair Kevin Warsh, maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to control inflation if price pressures persist. Meanwhile, ANZ expects silver to remain closely linked to gold in the near term while projecting stronger fundamental support over the medium to long term. London vault silver holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes by the end of June. India's silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May to the lowest level in over three years after tighter import restrictions and higher import duties significantly reduced inflows. Technically, silver witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 3.67% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 224,595, followed by Rs 222,195, while resistance is seen at Rs 229,190. A decisive breakout above this level could push prices towards Rs 231,385.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 222195-231385.

* Silver climbed as investors continued to monitor Middle East uncertainties and rising oil prices and their impact on inflation and interest rates.

* President Donald Trump downplayed the chances of near-term talks with Iran and warned of additional strikes, lifting oil prices.

* ADP data showed US private employers added an average of 16,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending July 4.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rallied 3.19% to settle at Rs 8,410, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that intensified concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Continued U.S. military strikes on Iran and renewed threats to shipping in the Red Sea from Iran-backed Houthi forces heightened fears over the security of key energy trade routes. The possibility of prolonged disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transit corridor, continued to support bullish market sentiment despite signs of improving supply elsewhere. Fundamentally, the latest U.S. inventory data presented a mixed picture. The American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in crude and distillate inventories, while gasoline stockpiles declined. Official data also showed U.S. crude inventories increased by 2.011 million barrels, against expectations of a draw, while gasoline and distillate stocks also posted gains. Net U.S. crude imports rose by 485,000 barrels per day, although inventories at the Cushing delivery hub declined. The International Energy Agency noted that nearly 290 million barrels of strategic oil have been released by member countries since March to stabilize markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined to 311.4 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983. Goldman Sachs warned Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel if disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue. On the supply side, OPEC+ approved a further production target increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, although actual output remains below pre-conflict levels due to regional disruptions. Technically, crude oil witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 3.13% while prices moved sharply higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs 8,229, followed by Rs 8,048, while resistance is placed at ?8,584. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 8,758.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8048-8758.

* Crude oil rose on mounting concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes because of escalating hostilities.

* While global oil stockpiles have drawn amid the conflict, the latest U.S. data is showing some building of inventories.

* Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude and distillate inventories rose last week, while gasoline stockpiles fell.

Natural gas 

Natural gas prices gained 2.94% to settle at Rs 283.4, supported by stronger summer cooling demand and higher crude oil prices as traders awaited the latest U.S. storage data. Hotter-than-normal weather across the United States continued to boost electricity demand for air conditioning, encouraging gas-fired power generation. However, gains remained capped by rising domestic production, softer liquefied natural gas (LNG) export flows, and concerns that Tropical Storm Bertha could temporarily disrupt LNG operations along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Fundamentally, average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states increased to 110.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July from 110.0 bcfd in June, remaining just below the record high reached in December 2025. Weather forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures are likely to persist through early August, supporting power sector gas consumption. LSEG estimates total U.S. gas demand, including exports, will increase from 111.0 bcfd this week to 111.6 bcfd next week. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, storage inventories increased by 41 billion cubic feet to 3,024 bcf, broadly matching market expectations. Storage remains 0.7% below last year's level but stands 6.4% above the five-year average. The EIA also projects record supply and demand in 2026, with dry gas production expected to rise to 111.2 bcfd, domestic consumption to 92.1 bcfd, and LNG exports to 17.4 bcfd, highlighting a constructive long-term demand outlook. Technically, natural gas witnessed short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 39.11% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 279.1, followed by Rs 274.8, while resistance is seen at Rs 285.7. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs 288.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 274.8-288.

* Natural gas rose supported by summer cooling demand and gains in oil prices

* Gas inventories were 6.4% above their five-year seasonal average as of July 10, signaling comfortable supply conditions.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 110.5 bcfd so far in July from 110.0 bcfd in June.

Copper 

Copper prices edged 0.27% lower to settle at Rs 1,336.7, as profit booking emerged after recent gains driven by tightening global supplies and firm Chinese demand. Despite the minor correction, the broader market sentiment remained supported by declining exchange inventories and improving physical demand in China. Traders also remained cautious while awaiting clarity on potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, which could influence global trade flows and pricing. Fundamentally, supply conditions continue to tighten, with copper inventories in both LME-registered warehouses and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses declining steadily since May. SHFE stocks dropped to 79,909 tonnes, their lowest level since August last year and more than 80% below mid-March levels, while weekly inventories fell another 20.3%. The Yangshan copper premium climbed to $109 per tonne, the highest level since December 2023, reflecting robust Chinese import demand. China's refined copper imports reached a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June as lower domestic supply supported overseas purchases. Meanwhile, Chile raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $5.90 per pound, citing favorable market conditions, although production at major mines including Codelco, Escondida, and Collahuasi declined sharply. The International Copper Study Group reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May after a deficit in April, while China's government reiterated its commitment to achieving annual growth targets and signaled additional policy support to strengthen domestic demand. Technically, copper witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 10.84% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,331.5, followed by Rs 1,326.1, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,344.4. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 1,351.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1326.1-1351.9.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained as supply worries and firm Chinese demand.

* Copper inventories have fallen in LME-registered warehouses and SHFE-monitored warehouses.

* The Yangshan copper premium hit its highest since December 2023 on Tuesday at $109 a ton.

Zinc 

Zinc prices rose 1.63% to settle at Rs 382.75, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and optimism surrounding global manufacturing activity. Market participants also monitored diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran, as developments in the Middle East continued to influence energy prices, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.  Fundamentally, China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May to 64,000 tonnes, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 0.28%, indicating stable domestic demand. Although China's economic growth slowed to a 3.5-year low amid weak domestic consumption, policymakers reiterated their commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policy and increasing support measures to stimulate economic activity. On the supply side, production disruptions continued to tighten the market. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan remained affected following an explosion, Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru continued its gradual recovery after fire damage, and concerns persisted over lower output from Boliden's Garpenberg mine following a seismic event. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus this year but forecasts slower mine supply growth from 2027 onward, potentially pushing markets outside China into deficit as demand is projected to grow around 2% annually. Technically, zinc witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.18% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 378.1, followed by Rs 373.5, while resistance is seen at Rs 385.6. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 388.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 373.5-388.5.

* Zinc gains as investors weighed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the US-Iran conflict and their potential impact on oil prices, inflation risks.

* The global zinc market surplus declined to 8,700 metric tons in May from 43,400 tons in April  - ILSZG

* China's cabinet, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, vowed to ensure the economy achieves its full-year growth target after second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.3%.

Aluminium 

Aluminium prices advanced 1.01% to settle at Rs 346.5, supported by tightening global supply conditions and declining exchange inventories. Market sentiment remained positive as visible aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses dropped to their lowest level since 2022, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) declined 1.12% during the week. Strong regional premiums and supply disruptions at key production facilities further strengthened the market outlook. Fundamentally, Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes following operational disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle and contamination issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Australia. Although refinery operations have stabilized, alumina shipment guidance was also lowered. Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $395 per tonne for July-September aluminium shipments, representing a 13% increase from the previous quarter, reflecting tighter regional availability. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, with Gulf production falling sharply due to earlier supply disruptions. Aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports declined 7.8% during June, indicating improving physical demand. Meanwhile, China's unwrought aluminium and product exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes in June, while imports fell 17.4% amid unfavorable import economics. Morgan Stanley expects the aluminium deficit to narrow in 2026 before the market shifts into a surplus from 2027, although long-term demand is expected to remain supported by expanding data centre construction. Technically, aluminium witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 7.09% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 343.4, followed by Rs 340.1, while resistance is seen at Rs 348.8. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 350.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 340.1-350.9.

* Aluminium gains amid supply concerns and LME stocks were at their lowest levels since 2022.

* Global primary aluminium output in June fell 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million metric tons - IAI

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 220,300 metric tons at the end of June,down about 7.8% from the previous month.

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices declined 1.71% to settle at Rs 21,158, as improved monsoon conditions eased immediate concerns over the upcoming crop and encouraged profit booking at elevated price levels. Better rainfall across major producing regions has strengthened expectations of higher Kharif acreage and improved production prospects, resulting in a softer market tone. However, the downside remained limited due to lower market arrivals, tight spot supplies, and steady export demand. Fundamentally, arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, significantly lower than 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. Good rainfall over the past week is expected to accelerate sowing activities, while attractive prices near multi-year highs are likely to encourage farmers to expand cultivation during the current season. Nevertheless, rainfall distribution and the potential impact of El Niño remain key factors for crop development. Although farmers have increased selling during the peak harvest period, overall supplies remain structurally tight because of lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks, which are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Quality concerns, including reports of rhizome rot, have also pressured prices in some markets. Export demand remained resilient despite India's turmeric exports easing 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May. Strong shipments to China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy helped keep cumulative April-May exports broadly stable. Meanwhile, spot prices in Nizamabad increased 0.34% to Rs 20,374.7 per quintal. Technically, turmeric witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.64% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 20,552, followed by Rs 19,946, while resistance is seen at Rs 21,532. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,906.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19946-21906.

* Turmeric dropped as recent improvements in monsoon rains have slightly eased concerns regarding the upcoming crop.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production.

* However, downside seen limited due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20374.7 Rupees gained by 0.34 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices declined 0.80% to settle at Rs 21,130, as increased selling by farmers and higher warehouse stocks weighed on market sentiment. Farmers continued to liquidate inventories to generate cash for the ongoing Kharif sowing season, while favorable weather across north-western India accelerated harvesting, drying, and market arrivals. The steady build-up of NCDEX warehouse stocks also reduced the urgency for spot buying, with major spice processors maintaining a cautious hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. Fundamentally, the downside remained limited due to tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, which continue to attract export demand. While overall crop availability remains adequate, supplies of export-grade residue-compliant lots are shrinking faster than expected. Daily arrivals in key markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, supporting prices at lower levels. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weaker-than-expected buying from China, and improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria have capped export premiums. Reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have affected crop quality and reduced the availability of high-grade seeds. Current estimates place India's jeera production at around 90–92 lakh bags, lower than 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat contributing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while cumulative April-May exports fell 22%. However, exports to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. Spot prices in Unjha remained stable at Rs 20,786.7 per quintal. Technically, jeera witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.76% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 21,040, followed by Rs 20,960, while resistance is seen at Rs 21,220. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,320.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20960-21320.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20786.7 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.

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