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Gold

Gold prices declined 1.25% to settle at 143,478, pressured by rising crude oil prices and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer. Minutes from the Fed's June meeting revealed that policymakers remained concerned about persistent inflation, with some members even supporting another rate hike before the decision to keep rates unchanged. While many officials still expect interest rates to end the year at or slightly below current levels, markets are now pricing in a 58% probability of a September rate hike. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation data and testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for further policy direction. Reflecting the stronger dollar and hawkish monetary outlook, HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, while still expecting prices to remain elevated over the medium term. Physical gold demand presented a mixed picture across major Asian markets. In India, dealers offered discounts of up to $19 per ounce over official domestic prices as heightened price volatility discouraged retail buying. In contrast, demand in China remained relatively resilient, with bullion trading between a $1 discount and a $5 premium. The People's Bank of China extended its gold buying streak for a twentieth consecutive month, adding approximately 15 metric tons in June, the largest monthly increase since October 2023. Meanwhile, gold holdings in London vaults increased 0.21% to 9,392 tonnes by the end of May, highlighting continued institutional demand despite recent price weakness. Technically, gold remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.87%, indicating the emergence of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 142,850, with a break below this level likely to expose 142,220. On the upside, resistance is seen at 144,585, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further recovery toward 145,690.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142220-145690.

*  Gold edged lower as rising crude ‌oil prices and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

*  Fed's minutes showed growing concern about inflation, with some policymakers favouring a rate hike before rates were left unchanged.

*  Gold traded at a wide discount in India as price volatility weighed, while demand in China remained steady

Silver

Silver prices declined 1.64% to settle at 222,664 as investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on inflation and global monetary policy. Although reports suggested that the United States and Iran would continue peace talks, recent military strikes and disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz kept inflation concerns elevated. Market participants continue to expect at least one additional Federal Reserve rate hike this year, though the policy outlook remains uncertain. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that demand driven by artificial intelligence remains an important inflationary factor. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture, with existing home sales falling 2.4% in June to an annualized 4.09 million units, while weekly jobless claims declined to 215,000, reflecting continued resilience in the labor market. Fundamental indicators also showed notable developments in the physical silver market. Silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% to 27,611 tonnes at the end of May, indicating stable institutional inventories. In India, silver imports plunged sharply following tighter government restrictions on precious metal imports. Imports fell 87% in value and 94% in volume year-on-year during May, reaching the lowest level since February 2023. The government has imposed stricter import authorization requirements and increased import duties on gold and silver to 15% in an effort to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves after record silver imports during the previous financial year. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.32%, indicating the addition of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 220,450, and a break below this level could extend losses toward 218,230. On the upside, resistance is seen at 225,940, with a sustained move above this level likely to open the door for a further recovery toward 229,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 218230-229210.

* Silver dropped as investors continued to assess developments in ME and their potential impact on inflation and monetary policy.

* Reports indicated that the US and Iran will continue peace talks despite a recent escalation in hostilities.

* Markets continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates at least once this year, although the policy outlook remains highly uncertain.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined 0.58% to settle at 6,814 as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced the risk premium in energy markets. Reports that Qatari mediators were holding discussions with Iranian officials to revive negotiations, along with comments from U.S. President Donald Trump expressing confidence that the conflict would not escalate further, weighed on prices. The absence of fresh military action between the United States and Iran over the past 24 hours also improved market sentiment. However, the International Energy Agency warned that any renewed disruption could significantly alter its outlook for the global oil market, as supply recovery remains heavily dependent on the continued reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Fundamental data presented a mixed supply outlook. The IEA reported that global oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels per day in June but remained well below pre-war levels. The agency also reduced its forecasts for Russian oil production over the next two years due to continued Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure. In the United States, crude oil inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories also fell, indicating healthy fuel demand, while distillate stockpiles increased. Meanwhile, net U.S. crude imports rose and crude inventories at the Cushing delivery hub recorded their first weekly increase after nine consecutive declines. OPEC+ further agreed to raise production targets from August, adding to expectations of higher global supply despite actual production remaining below planned levels. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.54% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at 6,727, with a break below this level likely to extend losses toward 6,640. On the upside, resistance is placed at 6,946, and a sustained move above this level could lead to a recovery toward 7,078.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6640-7078.

* Crude oil declined as efforts by third-party mediators to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table intensify.

* Prices pared gains after report said that Qatari negotiators are in Iran to meet Iranian officials.

* US – Iran escalation could threaten 2027 oil market surplus, IEA says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined 2.57% to settle at 280.3, pressured by expectations of lower feedgas demand from LNG export facilities and stronger-than-expected storage injections. Freeport LNG announced scheduled maintenance at its pre-treatment and liquefaction facilities from July 10 through late August, temporarily reducing natural gas flows to the export terminal. At the same time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a storage build of 61 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 3, exceeding market expectations of 49 Bcf and increasing the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 185 Bcf. The larger storage build highlighted comfortable domestic supply conditions despite ongoing seasonal demand. Fundamentally, weather forecasts continue to support power sector demand, with above-normal temperatures expected through July 23 likely to keep electricity consumption elevated for air conditioning. On the supply side, natural gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 109.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, slightly below June levels and below the record monthly high reached in December 2025. Total working gas in storage climbed to 2.983 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.5% below last year's level but 6.6% above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA projects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027. Dry gas production is forecast to rise to 111.0 bcfd in 2026, while LNG exports are expected to increase steadily, reflecting expanding export capacity and long-term global demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 9.37% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at 273.9, and a break below this level could extend losses toward 267.5. On the upside, resistance is placed at 287.8, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 295.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 267.5-295.3.

* Natural gas dropped amid the prospect of lower gas flows to LNG export facilities as well as data pointing to ample domestic supply.

* Freeport LNG said that maintenance work at its pre-treatment and liquefaction facilities would begin on July 10.

* EIA reported that energy firms injected 61 Bcf of natural gas into storage for the week ended July 3.

Copper 

Copper prices edged up 0.06% to settle at 1,293.6, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Improved market sentiment also received support after copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 18.3% from the previous week, indicating tighter near-term physical availability. Meanwhile, China's central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy and increasing financial support to stimulate domestic consumption, although it acknowledged that the economy continues to face structural challenges from weak demand despite stable overall growth. Fundamental developments remained mixed across the global copper market. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, reported a 12.9% year-on-year decline in May copper output, while China's refined copper production increased 2.2% during the same period. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper market deficit of 145,000 metric tons in April, reversing the surplus recorded in March, reflecting stronger global consumption relative to production. China also reported a recovery in unwrought copper imports, reaching a seven-month high despite record domestic refined production, supported by robust investment in high-voltage power infrastructure. However, copper concentrate imports declined sharply, highlighting tighter raw material availability for smelters. Major producers, including Ivanhoe Mines, expect higher production in the second half of the year, although supply growth remains constrained. Reflecting this outlook, Goldman Sachs and Citi both raised their copper price forecasts, citing persistent global supply deficits and stronger demand expectations. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.31% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 1,287.7, with further downside support at 1,281.7 if selling intensifies. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,301.8, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,309.9, keeping the near-term technical bias cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1281.7-1309.9.

* Copper gains supported by a weak dollar and easing fears around a rash of tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

* China's central bank pledges to maintain accommodative policy amid weak demand, external shocks

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 18.3% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.12% to settle at 376.35, supported by supply disruptions and improving manufacturing sentiment across major economies. Market confidence strengthened after reports of a fire at a sulphuric acid production unit at a South Korean zinc smelter, adding to concerns over near-term supply availability. Additional support came from positive manufacturing data released by China, Europe, and the United States, indicating resilient industrial activity despite elevated input costs. U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month in June, although the pace of growth moderated from the previous month. Fundamental developments continued to highlight a mixed supply-demand outlook. China's refined zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting improved domestic output, while zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose marginally by 0.6%, indicating stable inventory levels. However, several global supply disruptions continued to underpin prices. Glencore's Kazzinc operation in Kazakhstan is running at reduced capacity following an explosion, Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming operations after fire-related damage, and concerns persist over lower production at Boliden's Garpenberg mine following earlier seismic activity. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 tons in March, although the cumulative surplus for the first four months of the year remained significantly higher than last year. Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus in 2026 but anticipates tighter market conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows. Technically, zinc is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 9.4% while prices posted modest gains. Immediate support is placed at 373.5, with further downside support at 370.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at 378.8, and a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery toward 381.2, maintaining a cautiously positive near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 370.6-381.2.

* Zinc prices gained after reports a fire broke out in a sulphuric acid production unit at a South Korean zinc smelter.

* Support also seen supported by tight near-term supply conditions.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 1.6% to settle at 338.45, pressured by improving supply expectations after Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage. The company expects production to reach 50% of capacity within days and restore full operational capability by the end of the year, easing concerns over alumina availability. Market sentiment was also supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although fresh incidents near the Strait of Hormuz continued to keep supply risks under close watch. The improved supply outlook outweighed ongoing concerns over regional instability, leading to profit booking in aluminium prices. Fundamentally, the aluminium market continued to reflect mixed supply-demand dynamics. London Metal Exchange aluminium inventories remained at their lowest level since September 2022, while the cash contract traded at a premium over the three-month contract, indicating tight near-term physical availability. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories declined 4.8% during the week, further highlighting limited immediate supplies in China. Japanese buyers agreed to pay a 13% higher premium for July-September shipments, reflecting continued demand for physical metal. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year in May. In China, aluminium production increased 1.7% during May, supported by elevated international prices, while imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 6.9% and exports also recorded solid growth, reflecting resilient trade activity despite easing price momentum. Technically, aluminium remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 1.98% alongside lower prices, indicating new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at 335.0, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward 331.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 344.1, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward 349.6. The near-term technical structure remains cautious unless prices successfully move above the immediate resistance zone.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 331.4-349.6.

* Aluminium prices fell as EGA said it had restarted its alumina refinery in the United Arab Emirates.

* Pressure also seen driven by an easing of Middle East tensions and optimism over returning supplies.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.8% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rallied 3.25% to settle at 18,988, driven by lower market arrivals, tight spot supplies, and steady export demand. Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, sharply lower than 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. The sharp decline in arrivals supported spot prices as buyers competed for limited supplies. Although recent monsoon rainfall across key turmeric-growing regions has improved soil moisture and accelerated Kharif sowing, overall market sentiment remains supported by structurally tight supplies and reduced carry-forward stocks. Fundamentally, good rainfall over the past week is expected to encourage higher turmeric acreage during the current Kharif season as prices continue to trade near multi-year highs. However, future crop prospects remain dependent on the timely and even distribution of monsoon rains, with traders closely monitoring any potential impact from El Niño. While improved weather has slightly eased concerns regarding the upcoming crop, lower production in the previous season and declining carry-forward stocks continue to support prices. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward inventories have fallen to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last year. Export demand also remained encouraging, with India's turmeric exports rising marginally by 0.6% year-on-year in April. Strong shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset weaker exports to the UAE and the United States, reflecting healthy demand across diversified international markets. Meanwhile, Nizamabad spot prices gained 0.9%, reinforcing the positive tone in the physical market. Technically, turmeric remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.33% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at 18,554, with further downside support at 18,122. On the upside, resistance is seen at 19,234, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend the rally toward 19,482 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 18122-19482.

* Turmeric prices rallied due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, down sharply from 18,000 bags in the previous session.

* Good rainfall has been reported over the past five to six days, which is expected to accelerate sowing activities.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 17229.6 Rupees gained by 0.9 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined 0.6% to settle at 20,575 as profit booking emerged after the recent rally driven by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds. Although overall physical availability remains adequate, export-grade high-purity jeera has become increasingly scarce, supporting the broader market. Arrivals at major trading centers such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, reflecting reduced market participation. However, the upside remained limited as farmers continued to sell stocks aggressively to generate cash for Kharif sowing activities, while faster harvesting and drying supported higher arrivals during the peak marketing season. Fundamentally, the market continues to balance tight quality supplies against comfortable overall availability. NCDEX warehouse stocks have increased steadily, reducing the urgency for spot purchases by traders. Export demand remained mixed as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affected logistics and buying interest from traditional importers, while expected bulk purchases from China have remained irregular and highly price-sensitive. Domestic spice processors and stockists continue to follow a hand-to-mouth buying strategy instead of building inventories. However, demand for residue-compliant, export-quality jeera from Europe and North America remains supportive. Lower sowing during the current season is expected to reduce India's jeera production to around 90–92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year in April, mainly due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE, although stronger exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the weakness. Spot prices in Unjha also eased by 0.53%, reflecting cautious physical market sentiment. Technically, jeera remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9.59%, indicating fresh short positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at 20,440, with a break below this level likely to extend losses toward 20,310. Resistance is seen at 20,720, and a sustained move above this level could push prices higher toward 20,870.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20310-20870.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20350.55 Rupees dropped by -0.53 percent.

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