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Gold

Gold edged marginally lower by 0.03%, settling at 143,063, as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Market participants largely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged this week, although the CME FedWatch Tool continues to indicate nearly an 80% probability of a rate hike in September. Sentiment was also influenced by easing geopolitical tensions after the United States paused its military campaign and Iran indicated it would refrain from further attacks if the US maintains its pause. The decline in crude oil prices following these developments reduced inflation concerns, limiting safe-haven demand for gold, although downside remained restricted due to lingering uncertainty over the future interest rate path. On the fundamental front, CFTC data showed that COMEX gold speculators increased their net long positions by 4,438 contracts to 123,586 during the week ended 21 July, reflecting continued institutional interest. Meanwhile, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong declined by more than 5% month-on-month to 50.679 metric tonnes in June from 53.674 metric tonnes in May. Physical demand remained mixed across key Asian markets. In India, gold discounts widened to US$56 per ounce, the highest in seven weeks, as higher prices discouraged buyers. In contrast, Chinese physical premiums improved to US$3–6 per ounce, indicating better domestic demand. At the same time, gold holdings in London vaults rose 0.77% during June to 9,464 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 757,145 gold bars valued at US$1.2 trillion. Technically, gold is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 10.12% to 4,424 lots, accompanied by a modest price decline. Immediate support is placed at 142,520, followed by 141,975, while resistance is seen at 143,920. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 144,775, whereas failure to hold support may invite additional profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141975-144775.

* Gold dropped amid lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this week.

* Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told.

* COMEX gold speculators raised net long positions by 4,438 contracts to 123,586 in the week to July 21, CFTC data showed.

Silver 

Silver declined 0.43% to settle at 221,173, extending recent losses as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Markets continue to expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week, although expectations for a September rate hike remain elevated amid persistent inflation concerns. Downside, however, remained limited after easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil prices lower, reducing fears of energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. The suspension of US military operations against Iran and Tehran's decision to halt retaliatory actions eased safe-haven demand for precious metals, while improving overall market sentiment. Fundamentally, stronger-than-expected US economic data continued to weigh on silver. Initial Jobless Claims fell to their lowest level since September 1969, reinforcing the resilience of the US labour market and supporting expectations for further monetary tightening. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, and Chair Kevin Warsh, reiterated that additional rate hikes could be necessary if inflation remains persistent. Despite weaker US consumer and producer inflation data in June, rising import prices highlighted lingering inflationary risks. ANZ expects silver to remain closely linked with gold in the near term, although improving industrial demand should provide stronger medium- to long-term fundamentals. On the physical market side, silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.7% during June to 28,082 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 936,052 silver bars valued at US$53.1 billion. India's silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May to US$75.57 million, while import volumes dropped 94% to just 33 metric tonnes, following tighter import restrictions and higher import duties aimed at reducing precious metals imports. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.99% to 12,189 lots, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at 219,510, followed by 217,845, while resistance is placed at 224,030. A sustained move above this level could open the door towards 226,885, whereas failure to hold support may trigger additional downside momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 217845-226885.

* Silver dropped remaining under pressure amid lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this week.

* The US suspended its nearly two-week campaign of strikes against Iran beginning late Friday without an official announcement.

* Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday before raising them in September

Crude oil

Crude oil plunged 7.52% to settle at 7,957, as easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran sharply reduced concerns over immediate supply disruptions. Both countries paused military strikes over the weekend, raising optimism that diplomatic negotiations could prevent further escalation and facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments. Although Iran-backed Houthi forces continued attacks on Saudi energy facilities along the Red Sea, the market focused on improving prospects for uninterrupted crude exports. Despite the sharp correction, crude prices remain significantly higher on a monthly basis after gaining nearly 40% during the recent conflict, which disrupted supplies across both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. On the fundamental front, supply and inventory data presented a mixed outlook. The US Energy Information Administration reported a 2.011 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories against expectations of a draw, while gasoline and distillate stocks also rose, indicating softer near-term demand. Net US crude imports increased by 485,000 barrels per day, while inventories at the Cushing delivery hub declined by 674,000 barrels. Meanwhile, crude reserves in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 311.4 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1983, reflecting continued government releases. Goldman Sachs maintained its Brent crude forecast at US$80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting geopolitical tensions to ease later this year. Additionally, OPEC+ approved another production increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, adding to expectations of improving global supply as export routes gradually normalise. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 16.68% to 12,357 lots, signalling profit booking after the recent rally. Immediate support is placed at 7,814, followed by 7,671, while resistance is seen at 8,180. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 8,403, whereas failure to hold support may trigger additional selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7671-8403.

* Crude oil prices tumbled ‌after the U.S. and Iran paused strikes over the weekend.

* Trump pauses attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, US ambassador says

* Strait of Hormuz traffic stays low despite pause in conflict

Natural gas

Natural gas declined 4.62% to settle at 264.5, tracking the broad weakness across global energy markets after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. Prices came under pressure after Iran announced it had halted retaliatory attacks following the suspension of US military strikes, reducing concerns over regional energy supply disruptions. Additional downside pressure emerged from comfortable US supply conditions and softer LNG export demand. Gas flows to major US LNG export terminals averaged 17.2 bcfd so far in July, slightly below 17.4 bcfd in June due to scheduled maintenance at the Freeport LNG facility. However, losses were partially limited as weather forecasts continued to indicate above-normal temperatures through 8 August, supporting demand for gas-fired power generation to meet cooling requirements. Fundamentally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ended 17 July, slightly below market expectations of 35 bcf. Total working gas in storage increased to 3.056 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.5% below year-ago levels but 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, highlighting relatively comfortable supply conditions. Meanwhile, average dry gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to 110.4 bcfd in July from 110.0 bcfd in June. The EIA also projected both US natural gas production and demand to reach record levels over the coming years, forecasting production at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are expected to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026. Technically, natural gas is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 43.79% to 7,033 lots, reflecting aggressive profit booking. Immediate support is seen at 260.5, followed by 256.6, while resistance is placed at 269.9. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 275.4, whereas failure to hold support may invite further downside pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 256.6-275.4.

* Natural gas slid tracking the decline in global energy prices as Middle East hostilities paused.

* Natural gas prices also dropped amid ample supply conditions.

* EIA data showing that gas inventories remained 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average as of July 17.

Copper

Copper gained 0.35% to settle at 1,336.6, supported by improving market sentiment after the United States and Iran paused military hostilities, easing concerns over broader economic disruptions. Investors also remained focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 63.7% probability that the Fed will leave rates steady, while expectations for future policy guidance continue to influence base metal sentiment. Tight availability of copper outside the United States also continued to underpin prices as traders accelerated shipments ahead of potential US tariffs on refined copper. Fundamentally, supply conditions remained supportive despite signs of improving production. Copper inventories in SHFE-monitored warehouses declined 12.9% last week to 69,610 tonnes, the lowest level since February 2024, while LME inventories also remained at their lowest level since March. China's refined copper imports climbed to a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June, reflecting resilient demand and lower domestic supply. Meanwhile, Chile raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to US$5.90 per pound from US$5.46, although production remained weak, with Codelco's output falling 18.3%, Escondida declining 17.6%, and Collahuasi dropping 19.3% year-on-year. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported an 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May after a 145,000-tonne deficit in April. Additionally, China pledged further fiscal support to achieve its annual economic growth target, boosting expectations for stronger industrial metal demand. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 22.64% to 9,295 lots, indicating the addition of new long positions. Immediate support is seen at 1,332.4, followed by 1,328.1, while resistance is placed at 1,341.4. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 1,346.1, whereas failure to hold support may trigger near-term profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1328.1-1346.1.

* Copper firmed up buoyed by a nascent halt in fighting between the U.S. and Iran and oil market relief.

* Antofagasta resumes production at Los Pelambres copper mine after rain and power outage

* China's national social copper inventory increased by 5,300 mt WoW to 117,200 mt.

Zinc 

Zinc advanced 0.60% to settle at 379.7, supported by expectations of tighter near-term supply and improving sentiment towards the global manufacturing sector. Prices received an additional boost after a zinc smelter in Central China announced routine maintenance during August, expected to last around half a month and reduce output by 1,000–1,500 metric tonnes. Although China's economic growth slowed to a 3.5-year low due to weak domestic demand, manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States continued to show resilience, helping improve the outlook for industrial metals. Market participants also remained encouraged by expectations of further monetary support from China's central bank to stimulate domestic consumption and economic activity. Fundamentally, supply conditions remained supportive despite higher production levels. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May to 640,000 metric tonnes, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses declined 0.8%, indicating healthy physical demand. Additional supply concerns emerged after operational disruptions at major global producers. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan continued operating at reduced capacity following an explosion, Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru was gradually recovering after a fire, and production uncertainty persisted at Boliden's Garpenberg mine following seismic activity. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global refined zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 metric tonnes in May from 43,400 metric tonnes in April. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects only a modest global zinc surplus this year before slower mine supply growth potentially shifts the market outside China into deficit during 2027–2028, with global zinc demand projected to expand by around 2% annually over the next two years. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 21.55% to 2,087 lots, indicating the addition of new long positions. Immediate support is placed at 377.8, followed by 375.9, while resistance is seen at 381.1. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 382.5, whereas failure to hold support may encourage near-term profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 375.9-382.5.

* Zinc gains as a zinc smelter in central China plans maintenance for about half a month

* Support also seen amid tight near-term supply conditions.

* China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons.

Aluminium 

Aluminium declined 0.45% to settle at 341.9, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced concerns over supply disruptions after the United States and Iran paused hostilities. The prospect of shipping resuming through the Strait of Hormuz weighed on prices, while the restart of Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage also improved supply expectations. However, losses remained limited as aluminium fundamentals continued to receive support from tight visible inventories and resilient demand. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits in the aluminium smelting industry surged 117.1% year-on-year during the first half of the year, although seasonal weakness in downstream consumption and slower destocking of domestic aluminium inventories capped further upside. Fundamentally, supply conditions remained relatively tight despite higher Chinese production. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminium inventories declined 4.4% last week, while London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium inventories dropped to 271,275 metric tonnes, the lowest level since 1998, with on-warrant stocks falling to their lowest level since April 2025. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes following operational disruptions in Australia. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium production fell 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, with Gulf production declining sharply. China's aluminium exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes in June, up 12.5% from May, while imports fell 17.4% year-on-year, reflecting an unfavourable import arbitrage. Morgan Stanley expects the global aluminium deficit to narrow in 2026 before the market shifts into surplus during 2027, although demand from expanding data centre construction is expected to remain supportive. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.48% to 4,675 lots, indicating new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at 340.6, followed by 339.3, while resistance is seen at 343.3. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 344.7, whereas failure to hold support may encourage additional selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 339.3-344.7.

* Aluminium dropped following a temporary de-escalation of US-Iran tensions.

* Aluminium stocks on the London Metal Exchange have slumped to their lowest this century.

* Restart of Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage.

Turmeric 

Turmeric declined 1.37% to settle at 20,888, as improved monsoon rainfall across key growing regions eased concerns over the upcoming crop and encouraged profit booking at higher levels. Good rainfall during the past five to six days is expected to accelerate sowing activities, while attractive prices near multi-year highs are likely to encourage farmers to expand acreage during the ongoing Kharif season. However, market participants remain cautious as the pace of sowing will depend on the distribution of rainfall in the coming weeks, particularly amid concerns over the possible impact of El Niño. Despite the correction, downside remained limited due to lower arrivals, tight spot availability, and steady export demand. Fundamentally, arrivals declined sharply to around 8,500 bags from 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra, supporting spot prices. Although farmers continued to liquidate stocks during the peak marketing season, overall supplies remain structurally tight because of lower production and reduced carry-forward inventories. Industry estimates place carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than over 20 lakh bags last season. Reports of Rhizome Rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals also influenced market sentiment, while buyers remained selective and cautious. Export demand remained stable, with India's turmeric exports easing just 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May 2026. However, exports recorded strong growth to several destinations, including China (+1,580%), Oman (+749%), Yemen (+1,125%), and Italy (+639%), helping keep cumulative April–May FY2026-27 exports broadly unchanged. Meanwhile, the Nizamabad spot market price increased 0.47% to Rs 20,345.9. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.68% to 29,645 lots, indicating the addition of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 20,460, followed by 20,030, while resistance is seen at 21,480. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 22,070, whereas failure to hold support may invite further selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20030-22070.

* Turmeric dropped as recent improvements in monsoon rains have slightly eased concerns regarding the upcoming crop.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production.

* However, the pace of sowing in the coming weeks will depend largely on the distribution of rainfall, particularly amid concerns over the potential impact of El Niño.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20345.9 Rupees gained by 0.47 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera edged higher by 0.43% to settle at 21,070, supported by short covering after recent declines, although overall market sentiment remained cautious. Farmers continued to liquidate stocks aggressively to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather across North-West India accelerated harvesting and deliveries. The steady rise in NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot buying, and large domestic spice processors remained on the sidelines, preferring hand-to-mouth purchases while awaiting lower prices. However, the decline was limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade supplies continued to shrink despite stable overall crop availability. Lower daily arrivals at key markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan also provided underlying support. Fundamentally, export demand remained mixed amid challenging global conditions. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt logistics and weaken demand from traditional buyers, while purchases from China remained sporadic and price-sensitive. At the same time, improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria weighed on India's export competitiveness. Industry estimates suggest India's jeera production for the current season may decline to 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting lower sowing acreage. Gujarat's production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce 48–50 lakh bags. India's jeera exports fell 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May 2026, while cumulative April–May exports declined 22% to 33,431 tonnes. Despite the overall decline, exports to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Kenya recorded strong growth, highlighting resilient demand from emerging markets. Meanwhile, the Unjha spot price slipped 0.41% to Rs 20,836.85. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.41% to 9,000 lots, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at 20,850, followed by 20,610, while resistance is seen at 21,290. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 21,490, whereas failure to hold support may invite renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20610-21490.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20836.85 Rupees dropped by -0.41 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views