IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 1.06% at Rs 142,883, supported by short covering as investors assessed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran. Reports of possible negotiations, including a proposed 10-day truce to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, helped reduce immediate geopolitical concerns while keeping focus on the inflation outlook. Earlier conflict-driven gains in crude oil had lifted energy prices to more than a one-month high, reinforcing fears that higher fuel costs could sustain inflationary pressures. As a result, several Federal Reserve policymakers continue to signal that interest rates may need to remain elevated for longer. While the Fed is broadly expected to leave rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, markets are currently pricing in more than a 60% probability of a rate hike in September. On the supply side, Russia's central bank reported gold reserves of 73.4 million troy ounces (2,282 metric tons) at the beginning of July, down by 43.5 metric tons since the start of the year, although the total value of its holdings remained substantial at $299 billion. In the physical market, demand remained subdued across major Asian hubs. Gold discounts in India widened to as much as $45 per ounce due to weak jewellery demand and expectations of lower prices, while Chinese premiums remained broadly stable amid muted retail buying. Meanwhile, gold stored in London vaults increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes, equivalent to around 757,145 gold bars, highlighting ample global inventory levels. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 3.84% while prices advanced. Gold is holding immediate support at Rs 142,325, followed by Rs 141,770. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 143,265, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 143,650.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141770-143650.

*  Gold prices rose as investors weighed diplomatic efforts to ease the U.S.-Iran conflict, which could temper oil-driven inflation risks.

*  Reports indicated that mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table.

*  Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, markets are pricing in more than a 60% probability of a rate hike in September.

Silver 

Silver prices settled 2.46% higher at Rs 223,779, supported by short covering as investors closely tracked diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran while evaluating the potential impact on oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Reports indicated that mediators are attempting to revive negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with discussions involving a possible 10-day truce to safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, elevated crude oil prices continue to fuel concerns over inflation, prompting several Federal Reserve officials to maintain a hawkish stance. While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting, markets are pricing in more than a 60% probability of a September rate hike and nearly an 80% chance of another increase by December. Recent US inflation data showed consumer and producer prices eased in June, although import prices unexpectedly rose, keeping uncertainty over the policy outlook intact. Fundamentally, silver continues to draw long-term support from improving market dynamics. ANZ expects silver to remain closely linked with gold in the near term, while its medium- to long-term fundamentals are likely to strengthen gradually. At the end of June, silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, valued at approximately $53.1 billion, equivalent to around 936,052 silver bars. In India, silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year by value and 94% by volume in May following tighter import restrictions and an increase in import duties to 15%, reflecting government efforts to reduce precious metal imports and protect foreign exchange reserves. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 4.28% while prices advanced sharply. Immediate support is placed at Rs 220,490, followed by Rs 217,195. Resistance is seen at Rs 225,790, and a sustained breakout above this level could open the way towards Rs 227,795.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 217195-227795.

* Silver jumped as investors monitored diplomatic efforts to ease the US-Iran conflict and assessed the implications for oil prices.

* Reports suggested mediators are working to restart negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with a possible 10-day truce being discussed.

* Some US policymakers have argued that rates may need to stay elevated for longer, or even rise further, to contain inflation

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices settled 2.53% higher at Rs 8,150, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran. The US continued its tenth consecutive day of strikes following attacks on American forces, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting Kuwait. Additional threats from Yemen's Houthis to disrupt Saudi Arabian shipping further heightened concerns over regional energy supplies. The geopolitical uncertainty has increased fears of prolonged disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transit route, keeping risk premiums elevated. Fundamentally, supply concerns continue to dominate market sentiment despite ongoing efforts to stabilize the market. Goldman Sachs projected Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel later this year if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist and Gulf production recovers only gradually. The International Energy Agency noted that member countries have already released around 290 million barrels from strategic reserves, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined to 311.4 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983. Weekly EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 1.69 million barrels, gasoline stocks declined more than expected, while refinery activity improved. However, distillate inventories posted a sharp increase, reflecting mixed demand conditions. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved another production target increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, although actual output remains below pre-war levels because regional disruptions continue to restrict exports. From a technical perspective, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 12.63%, indicating new long positions entering the market. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs 7,932, followed by Rs 7,715. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 8,292, and a sustained move above this level could extend the rally towards Rs 8,435.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7715-8435.

* Crude oil edged higher amid fresh attacks exchanged by the U.S. and Iran as well as threats of a naval blockade ‌of Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthis.

* IEA said ‌around 290 million barrels of oil have been released by its member countries since the announcement on March 11.

* Goldman Sachs said that Brent crude could top $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter this year and average $100 a barrel next year

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 0.25% higher at Rs 275.3, recovering through short covering after recent declines driven by higher production, weaker liquefied natural gas (LNG) export flows, and expectations that Tropical Storm Bertha would temporarily reduce energy demand along the US Gulf Coast. The storm is forecast to make landfall near Louisiana, close to Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines export facility, raising concerns over potential disruptions to LNG operations. Despite these near-term uncertainties, warmer-than-normal weather forecasts through early August are expected to keep electricity demand elevated as gas-fired power plants continue to meet strong cooling requirements. Fundamentally, the US natural gas market remains supported by firm demand despite record production levels. Average dry gas production in the Lower 48 states increased to 110.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, while total gas demand, including exports, is projected to rise from 111.0 bcfd this week to 111.6 bcfd next week. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas storage increased by 41 billion cubic feet to 3,024 bcf during the week ended July 10, broadly matching market expectations. Storage remains 0.7% below last year's level but stands 6.4% above the five-year average, indicating a relatively comfortable supply position. The EIA also expects both production and consumption to reach record highs over the next two years, while LNG exports are projected to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026, providing longer-term demand support. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 9.45% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs 273.7, followed by Rs 272.2. Resistance is placed at Rs 277.7, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 280.2.

Trading Ideas

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.2-280.2.

* Natural gas gained on short covering after prices dropped on rising output, a decline in LNG export flows

* Average gas output rose to 110.5 bcfd so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June.

* Tropical Storm Bertha could hit Louisiana near Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG plant on Wednesday

Copper

Copper prices settled 1.99% higher at Rs 1,340.3, supported by tightening physical supplies and robust Chinese import demand despite persistent concerns over global economic growth amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment remained firm as declining exchange inventories and stronger buying from China continued to outweigh macroeconomic uncertainties. The Yangshan copper premium climbed to $103 per tonne, its highest level since May 2025, reflecting strong import demand from the world's largest copper consumer. At the same time, the narrowing cash-to-three-month spread on the London Metal Exchange indicated tightening near-term physical availability. Supply-side fundamentals remain supportive as inventories continue to decline across major exchanges. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses fell to 79,909 tonnes, the lowest level since August last year and more than 80% below mid-March levels. Chile also raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $5.90 per pound from $5.46 previously, reflecting expectations of continued market strength. Meanwhile, production remained under pressure, with Codelco's output declining 18.3% year-on-year, while production at Escondida and Collahuasi also posted significant declines. Although the International Copper Study Group reported an 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May, China's refined copper imports rose to a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June, highlighting resilient physical demand. Investors are also awaiting additional Chinese stimulus measures aimed at supporting domestic consumption and infrastructure investment. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 3.08% while prices advanced sharply. Copper has immediate support at Rs 1,323.9, followed by Rs 1,307.6. Resistance is placed at Rs 1,349.7, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 1,359.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1307.6-1359.2.

* Copper ticked up supported by fears of supply-side tightness and strong Chinese buying

* Chile, raised its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $5.90 per pound from a previous estimate of $5.46 per pound.

* The Yangshan copper premium, increased to $103 a ton on Monday, its highest since May 2025.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 0.82% higher at Rs 376.6, supported by short covering and persistent concerns over near-term supply tightness despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. Investors continued to assess diplomatic efforts aimed at easing geopolitical tensions and their implications for oil prices, inflation, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Additional support came from encouraging manufacturing data across China, Europe, and the United States, indicating resilient industrial activity despite elevated input costs. Although China's economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in three-and-a-half years, authorities have pledged continued accommodative monetary policy and stronger financial support to revive domestic demand. Fundamentally, supply-side disruptions continued to provide support for zinc prices. Production setbacks at Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan, a temporary suspension at Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru due to fire damage, and operational concerns at Boliden's Garpenberg mine have tightened near-term supply expectations. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group had earlier projected a 19,000-tonne refined zinc deficit for the year, although its latest data showed the global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April. In China, refined zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses continued to decline, reflecting healthy physical demand. Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to remain in a small surplus this year but forecasts tighter conditions beyond 2026 as mine supply growth slows and demand continues to expand. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 1.67% while prices moved higher. Zinc has immediate support at Rs 374.6, followed by Rs 372.6. Resistance is placed at Rs 378.1, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 379.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 372.6-379.6.

* Zinc gains as investors weighed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the US-Iran conflict and their potential impact on oil prices, inflation risks.

* The global zinc market surplus declined to 8,700 metric tons in May from 43,400 tons in April  - ILSZG

* China's cabinet, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, vowed to ensure the economy achieves its full-year growth target after second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.3%.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.59% higher at Rs 343.05, supported by short covering and persistent supply concerns across key producing regions. Market sentiment remained positive as aluminium inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses declined to their lowest levels since 2022, while stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also continued to fall, indicating tightening physical availability. Supply risks were further reinforced after Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes following operational disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle and contamination issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia, although production has now stabilized. Fundamentally, global supply conditions remain relatively tight despite improving production in some regions. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf production falling sharply due to earlier operational disruptions. Japanese buyers agreed to pay a 13% higher quarterly premium of $395 per tonne for July-September shipments, highlighting firm regional demand. At the same time, aluminium inventories at Japan's major ports declined 7.8% during June. In China, primary aluminium production increased 4.7% year-on-year, while exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products reached a record 711,000 tonnes in June, reflecting strong overseas demand despite weaker imports. Morgan Stanley expects the aluminium market deficit to narrow in 2026 before shifting into a surplus from 2027, although demand from data centre construction is expected to provide longer-term support. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 5.89% while prices advanced. Aluminium has immediate support at Rs 341.4, followed by Rs 339.6. Resistance is placed at Rs 344.9, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 346.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 339.6-346.6.

* Aluminium gains amid supply concerns and LME stocks were at their lowest levels since 2022.

* Global primary aluminium output in June fell 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million metric tons - IAI

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 220,300 metric tons at the end of June,down about 7.8% from the previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 0.16% higher at Rs 21,526, supported by lower market arrivals, tight spot supplies, and steady export demand. Daily arrivals declined sharply to around 8,500 bags from 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra, tightening near-term availability. Spot prices remained firm as structurally lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks continued to support the market. In Nizamabad, one of the country's major spot markets, turmeric prices rose 1.3% to Rs 20,306.65, reflecting steady physical demand. Fundamentally, market participants are closely monitoring weather conditions across major turmeric-growing regions. Good rainfall over the past week is expected to accelerate Kharif sowing, and with prices trading near multi-year highs, farmers are likely to increase acreage during the current season. However, concerns over the possible impact of El Niño and uneven rainfall distribution continue to create uncertainty regarding future production. While improved monsoon conditions have slightly eased crop concerns, supplies remain structurally tight due to lower production and carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Selling pressure from farmers during the harvest season and quality issues such as Rhizome Rot have temporarily weighed on prices. Export demand remains supportive, with cumulative April-May 2026 exports broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes, supported by strong growth in shipments to China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy, offsetting weaker demand from other destinations. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 1.5% while prices edged higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 21,234, followed by Rs 20,944. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,826, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 22,128.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20944-22128.

* Turmeric gained due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, down sharply from 18,000 bags in the previous session.

* Good rainfall has been reported across major turmeric-growing regions over the past five to six days, which is expected to accelerate sowing activities.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20306.65 Rupees gained by 1.3 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 0.07% higher at Rs 21,300, supported by short covering as tightening supplies of premium-quality seeds offset continued selling pressure from farmers. Producers have been actively liquidating stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather across north-west India accelerated harvesting and deliveries, increasing market arrivals. Although NCDEX warehouse stocks have continued to build, reducing the urgency for spot procurement, the availability of export-grade bold seeds has tightened significantly. Daily arrivals in major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have also started to decline, providing support to prices. In the Unjha spot market, jeera prices closed at Rs 20,895.9, down 0.29%. Fundamentally, the market continues to witness mixed demand conditions. Domestic spice processors remain cautious and are limiting purchases to immediate requirements rather than building inventories. Export demand has also been affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and slower-than-expected buying from China. However, demand from Europe and North America has improved, particularly for residue-compliant and premium-quality lots. Crop quality has also been impacted by blight disease in parts of Gujarat, reducing the availability of superior-grade seeds. Production estimates for the current season remain lower than last year, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags previously. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while cumulative exports during April-May fell 22% despite stronger shipments to emerging markets such as Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 2.17% while prices edged higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 21,130, followed by Rs 20,940. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,440, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20940-21560.

* Jeera settled flat as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20895.9 Rupees dropped by -0.29 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views