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Gold

Gold prices declined 0.29% to settle at Rs 141,850, as softer U.S. inflation data reduced immediate rate-hike concerns, while escalating Middle East tensions and higher crude oil prices continued to support safe-haven demand. Although easing inflation strengthened expectations for future monetary easing, markets still priced in nearly a 49% probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, keeping sentiment cautious. Investment banks turned more conservative on gold's medium-term outlook. ANZ lowered its year-end forecast to $4,600/oz and its 12-month target to $5,400/oz, warning that persistent hawkish monetary policy could drag prices toward $3,500 before stabilizing around $3,800–4,000. HSBC also trimmed its 2026 and 2027 price forecasts, citing a stronger U.S. dollar and prolonged restrictive monetary policy. Market positioning reflected softer investor confidence, with COMEX gold speculative net long positions falling by 1,964 contracts to 114,854. Physical demand remained mixed as Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $19/oz due to volatile prices. Meanwhile, China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to a 20th consecutive month, purchasing nearly 15 metric tonnes in June, while London vault holdings rose 0.21% to 9,392 tonnes. From a technical perspective, gold remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.31% alongside lower prices, indicating profit booking by bullish participants. Immediate support is placed at Rs 140,920, followed by Rs 139,990, while resistance is seen at Rs 142,600 and Rs 143,350. A decisive move beyond these levels is likely to determine the next short-term directional trend.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 139100-142380.

*  Gold fell as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields higher.

*  Concerns over Middle East energy supplies increased after Iran asked Yemen's Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route.

*  Traders are now pricing in about a 56% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September.

Silver

Silver prices declined 2.09% to settle at Rs 216,013, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that global interest rates could remain elevated despite softer inflation data. Investor sentiment remained cautious as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher, increasing concerns that inflationary pressures could persist. The latest escalation followed fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and Tehran's retaliation, raising fears over disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and supporting safe-haven demand while weighing on industrial metals. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. consumer and producer inflation both eased in June, but stronger retail sales and a rebound in the dollar index to 100.6 reinforced confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, pending home sales fell 5.4% in June, marking the sharpest monthly decline since December 2025, while the NAHB Housing Market Index slipped to 34 from 36, indicating continued weakness in the housing sector. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation, without providing any indication of imminent policy easing. Fundamentally, silver continues to receive long-term support despite short-term weakness. ANZ expects silver fundamentals to improve gradually over the medium to long term, although prices remain closely linked to movements in gold. London vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 936,052 silver bars. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged 87% in value and 94% in volume year-on-year during May after tighter import restrictions and higher import duties curtailed inflows. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 4.72%, indicating the formation of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 214,025, followed by Rs 212,035, while resistance is seen at Rs 219,070 and Rs 222,125. Sustained trading below support may extend the corrective phase, whereas a breakout above resistance could revive bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 212035-222125.

* Silver prices fell as escalating Middle East tensions and reinforced concerns that interest rates could remain elevated.

* Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declared his determination to bring inflation down without hinting at how.

* Traders are still pricing an about 73% chance of a December Fed rate hike, CME FedWatch Tool's data showed.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices ended marginally higher, settling 0.01% up at Rs 7,614, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offset concerns over increasing global supply. Market sentiment remained supported after Iran reportedly urged Yemen's Houthis to prepare for potential disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. targeted Iranian power infrastructure. Reduced vessel traffic through the Red Sea following the reimposition of the U.S. naval blockade on Iran heightened fears of supply disruptions across key energy shipping routes. On the supply front, Iraqi crude exports more than doubled to an average of 1.2 million barrels per day during the first half of July, while OPEC+ approved another production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August. Although the group has announced cumulative production hikes since April, actual output remains constrained by regional conflict and disruptions to tanker movements. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day, marking the third consecutive downward revision, while maintaining a relatively more optimistic outlook than the International Energy Agency. U.S. inventory data presented a mixed picture. Commercial crude inventories declined by 1.693 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.533 million barrels, reflecting healthy fuel demand, while distillate inventories increased by 4.556 million barrels. Crude stocks at Cushing rose by 0.43 million barrels, and refinery runs edged higher. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by approximately 3 million barrels to 316.5 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, while total U.S. crude inventories reached their lowest level since 1984. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 11.09% alongside stable prices, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs 7,538, followed by Rs 7,463, while resistance is placed at Rs 7,744 and Rs 7,875. A sustained move above resistance could strengthen bullish momentum, whereas failure to hold support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7463-7875.

* Crude oil rose as concerns over Middle East energy supplies increased.

* US launches multiple strikes on Iran, which retaliates

* Fewer vessels travel through Hormuz after US resumes blockade

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined 2.76% to settle at Rs 274.90, pressured by rising U.S. production and weaker demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Market sentiment remained bearish as scheduled maintenance at Freeport LNG's export terminal in Texas reduced gas flows for overseas shipments, leaving more natural gas available for domestic consumption. The facility is expected to resume normal operations only in late August, adding to near-term supply concerns. Fundamental pressure also came from improving U.S. production, with average output in the Lower 48 states rising to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July from 110.0 bcfd in June. At the same time, near-record solar and wind power generation continued to displace natural gas-fired electricity generation, reducing domestic demand. Although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted LNG shipping routes through the Persian Gulf, the impact on U.S. prices remained limited due to abundant domestic supply. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas storage increased by 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) during the week ended July 10, lifting total inventories to 3,024 bcf. While inventories remain 6.4% above the five-year average, they are 0.7% below levels recorded a year ago, reflecting stronger LNG exports despite record domestic production. The EIA also projects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs over the next two years, with production expected to increase to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to rise to 17.4 bcfd and 18.6 bcfd, respectively. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 10.45%, indicating the addition of new short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs 269.70, followed by Rs 264.60, while resistance is placed at Rs 283.20 and Rs 291.60. Sustained weakness below support may extend losses, whereas a breakout above resistance could trigger short-covering gains.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264.6-291.6.

* Natural gas dropped on rising output and lower flows to LNG export plants.

* US energy firms added 41 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage to a total of 3,024 bcf.

* Average gas production increased to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in July from 110.0 in the previous month.

Copper

Copper prices slipped 0.25% to settle at Rs 1,308.50, as investors balanced weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data against softer U.S. inflation figures. China's GDP growth slowed to a 3.5-year low, reflecting weak domestic demand and weighing on sentiment for industrial metals. However, easing U.S. inflation supported expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy outlook, limiting the downside in copper prices. Fundamentally, the market presented mixed signals. Combined LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper inventories reached 1.145 million tonnes at the end of May, up 54% from the end of 2025 and the highest level since January 2003, indicating ample global availability. China's refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year to 1.26 million tonnes in May, while cumulative copper imports during January-May declined 7%, highlighting weaker import demand. The LME cash-to-three-month spread remained in deep contango, reflecting comfortable near-term supply conditions. Despite elevated inventories, several supply-side developments provided underlying support. Copper stocks in LME-approved warehouses have declined more than 20% since the end of May to a four-month low, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories dropped 18.3% over the past week. Chile reported sharp production declines across major mines, with Codelco, Escondida, and Collahuasi posting double-digit annual output declines. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 145,000-tonne global refined copper deficit in April as consumption exceeded production, although the market remained in surplus over the first four months of the year. Technically, copper remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.34% alongside falling prices, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs 1,297.40, followed by Rs 1,286.30, while resistance is placed at Rs 1,329.80 and Rs 1,351.10. A sustained move above resistance could restore bullish momentum, whereas a break below support may extend the corrective phase.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1286.3-1351.1.

* Copper dropped as investors weighed gloomy Chinese macroeconomic conditions with lower U.S. consumer inflation data.

* The LME cash-to-3-month spread widened into a deeper contango, with cash trading discounted below the 3-month price by over $40–$50/t.

* Combined LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper inventories reached 1,144,966 tonnes at the end of May 2026, up 54% from the end of 2025.

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 0.84% to settle at Rs 377.30, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and encouraging manufacturing data from major economies. Market sentiment improved as manufacturing indicators from China, Europe, and the United States pointed to continued industrial resilience despite higher input costs. However, gains remained capped by escalating Middle East tensions, which reinforced inflation concerns and expectations of elevated interest rates, while China's GDP growth slowed to a 3.5-year low, highlighting persistent weakness in domestic demand. Fundamental developments reflected a mixed outlook. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May to 640,000 metric tonnes, while inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange edged 0.6% higher, indicating comfortable domestic supply. China's central bank acknowledged the economy's structural imbalance between strong supply and weak demand and reiterated its commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy to stimulate consumption and support economic growth. Supply-side disruptions continued to provide underlying support for prices. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan remained affected by reduced operations following an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru gradually resumed production after fire-related disruptions. Concerns also persist over lower output from Boliden's Garpenberg mine following seismic activity. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 tonnes in April from 56,300 tonnes in March, although the market remained in a 145,000-tonne surplus during the first four months of the year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus in 2026 before supply growth slows in subsequent years. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 3.49% alongside higher prices, indicating the formation of new long positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs 375.30, followed by Rs 373.20, while resistance is placed at Rs 378.90 and Rs 380.40. A sustained move above resistance could extend the upward trend, while a break below support may invite profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 373.2-380.4.

* Zinc gains supported by tight near-term supply conditions.

* GDP growth in China cooled to a 3.5-year low, missing forecasts on weak domestic demand, official data showed.

* Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating at reduced capacity, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru was temporarily suspended.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose 0.82% to settle at Rs 344.30, supported by tightening exchange inventories and supply concerns. Stocks in LME-registered warehouses dropped to their lowest level since 2022, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 4.8% over the week. However, gains were capped by improving supply prospects after Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage, with production expected to reach 50% capacity within days and full capacity by year-end. Global supply and demand fundamentals remained mixed. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.15 million tonnes in May. Meanwhile, China's aluminium production increased 1.7% to 3.89 million tonnes, extending its growth trend, while cumulative output during the first five months of the year rose 3.5% to 19.22 million tonnes. China's unwrought aluminium and product exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes in June, up 12.5% from May, taking first-half exports 16.3% higher to 3.4 million tonnes. In Japan, aluminium stocks at major ports declined 7.8% to 220,300 tonnes, while Japanese buyers agreed to pay a $395 per tonne premium for July-September shipments, reflecting firm regional demand. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects the aluminium deficit to narrow in 2026 before the market shifts into a surplus in 2027 as additional supply enters the market. Nevertheless, the bank believes demand from data centre construction will continue to provide structural support for aluminium consumption. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.05% while prices advanced, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 342.70, followed by Rs 341.10, while resistance is seen at Rs 345.50 and Rs 346.70. A sustained move above resistance could extend the recovery, whereas failure to hold support may invite renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 341.1-346.7.

* Aluminium gains amid supply concerns and LME stocks were at their lowest levels since 2022.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.8% from last Friday

* EGA said it had restarted its alumina refinery in the United Arab Emirates after a 3-1/2-month outage.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 1.50% to settle at Rs 20,950, supported by lower market arrivals, tight spot supplies, and steady export demand. Total arrivals declined sharply to around 8,500 bags from 18,000 bags in the previous session, primarily due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. Strong buying interest amid limited arrivals helped support prices, while the Nizamabad spot market also strengthened, with prices rising 4.07% to Rs 19,345.90. Crop prospects remain closely linked to weather conditions. Good rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions over the past five to six days is expected to accelerate Kharif sowing, and attractive prices near multi-year highs are likely to encourage higher acreage. However, the pace of sowing will depend on the consistency of monsoon rainfall, particularly amid concerns over the potential influence of El Niño. Although improving monsoon conditions have eased immediate crop concerns, overall supplies remain structurally tight due to lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Export demand continues to provide strong support to the market. India's turmeric exports increased 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Demand from China surged to 1,455 tonnes from just 9 tonnes a year earlier, while exports to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan also recorded strong double-digit growth. Although shipments to the UAE and USA declined, robust demand from emerging markets offset these weaknesses and maintained stable overall export performance. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.97% alongside higher prices, indicating the addition of new long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 20,584, followed by Rs 20,220, while resistance is seen at Rs 21,206 and Rs 21,464. A sustained move above resistance could extend the upward trend, whereas a break below support may trigger corrective profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20220-21464.

* Turmeric prices gained due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, down sharply from 18,000 bags in the previous session.

* Good rainfall has been reported over the past five to six days, which is expected to accelerate sowing activities.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 19345.9 Rupees gained by 4.07 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined 0.46% to settle at Rs 20,735, as increased selling by farmers ahead of the Kharif sowing season weighed on market sentiment. Producers accelerated stock liquidation to generate cash, while favorable weather across northwestern India enabled faster harvesting and drying, resulting in higher arrivals and a steady build-up of NCDEX warehouse stocks. However, losses remained limited as the availability of premium export-grade bold seeds continued to tighten despite stable overall physical supplies. Fundamental factors remained mixed. Daily arrivals across major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, reflecting tightening supplies of high-quality cumin. Reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have also affected crop quality and reduced premium-grade availability. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, slower-than-expected buying from China, and improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria have reduced export demand and pressured Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists have also maintained hand-to-mouth buying rather than building large inventories. Production estimates indicate India's jeera output may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat producing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. India's jeera exports fell 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, mainly due to a 90% decline in shipments to the UAE. However, exports to Morocco, the USA, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth, partly offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. In the Unjha spot market, prices eased 0.12% to Rs 20,519.70. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 4.01% while prices declined, indicating the creation of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 20,560, followed by Rs 20,390, while resistance is seen at Rs 20,980 and Rs 21,230. A move above resistance could improve sentiment, while sustained trading below support may extend the corrective phase.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20390-21230.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* However downside seen limited amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20519.7 Rupees dropped by -0.12 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views