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Gold

Gold prices declined 1.84% to settle at Rs. 140,525, pressured by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who supported a December rate hike and indicated that a larger 50-basis-point increase could be considered if inflation worsens. Markets are pricing in nearly a 99% probability of a December rate hike, while investors await US consumer inflation data for further monetary policy cues. Commerzbank also expects another rate increase, citing resilient employment and elevated inflation. Meanwhile, China's central bank continued its gold accumulation, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months in October, with reserves rising to 78.3 million fine troy ounces. China added 103.26 tonnes during the first nine months of 2026, taking total reserves to 2,409.59 tonnes. However, China's domestic gold production declined 11.44% year-on-year to 347.99 tonnes, while consumption edged up 0.28% to 684.62 tonnes, supported by a 26.26% increase in bar and coin demand, although jewellery consumption plunged 33.86%. The World Gold Council reduced its forecast for global investment demand growth to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes, citing weaker bar and coin purchases, but raised its central bank buying expectations to at least 848 tonnes for 2026. Global gold ETFs recorded inflows of 211 tonnes in the third quarter, while central bank purchases increased 42% to 321 tonnes. In India, gold demand is expected to decline to around 650 tonnes in 2026, its lowest level since 2020, as elevated prices, weak rural demand and economic pressures weigh on jewellery consumption. Physical demand nevertheless improved across Asian markets ahead of Diwali, with Indian dealers quoting premiums of up to $4 per ounce. Meanwhile, speculative net long positions declined by 3,107 contracts to 104,297 in the week ended November 3, indicating some reduction in bullish positioning. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.72% to 16,449 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 2,641, indicating additional short positions. Support is placed at Rs. 139,760, followed by Rs. 138,990, while resistance is seen at Rs. 141,900, above which prices could test Rs. 143,270.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 138990-143270.

• Gold prices fell after hawkish remarks from a US Federal Reserve official

• Tougher Fed action needed if inflation moves away from target- Waller

• Russia sells 19 tonnes of gold in 3Q26, the only sizeable reported central bank disposal – WGC

• PBOC said China’s gold reserves rose to 78.30 million ounces at end-October from 77.747 million ounces at end-September.

Silver

Silver prices declined 2.43% to settle at Rs. 182,576, pressured by a stronger US dollar index, which climbed to 102 after stronger-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate increases. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against expectations of 0.3%, while core CPI increased 0.3% for the third consecutive month, exceeding forecasts of 0.2%. Additionally, October employment data showed stronger job growth and a decline in unemployment to 4.1%, strengthening expectations of another rate hike at the December 8-9 Federal Reserve meeting. Speculative positioning also weakened, with net long positions declining by 238 contracts to 2,665 in the week ended November 3. Meanwhile, Perth Mint silver sales dropped 36% month-on-month to 388,536 ounces in October from 605,408 ounces in September, reflecting weaker investment interest amid higher interest rate expectations. Despite near-term demand concerns, the global silver market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Around 762 million ounces have been drawn from global inventories since 2021, highlighting persistent structural supply constraints. However, total silver demand is forecast to decline 2% in 2026, as industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties, while coin and bar demand could increase 18% on improving US investment demand. Global silver supply is also projected to decline 2%, providing some underlying support to the market. London vault holdings stood at 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, up 1.95% month-on-month, indicating improved physical availability. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing marginally by 0.06% to 17,021 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 4,551, indicating additional short positions. Support is placed at Rs. 181,120, followed by Rs. 179,650, while resistance is seen at Rs. 185,180, above which prices could test Rs. 187,780.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 179650-187780.

• Silver dropped as stronger-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations that Fed will continue raising interest rates.

• US consumer inflation moderated in October, with the CPI rising 0.4% month on month after a 0.6% increase in September.

• Money markets increased bets on at least two additional rate hikes by mid-2027, with investors anticipating another increase at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting.

• Silver speculative net long fell by 238 to +2,665 contracts: speculators sold 173 longs and added 65 shorts.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined 1.62% to settle at Rs. 8,096, pressured by easing geopolitical concerns after US President Donald Trump indicated that he would hold off on additional military strikes against Iran following appeals from regional countries, including Qatar. The resumption of Gulf oil supplies has shifted market attention towards a potential global surplus, with JPMorgan estimating an oversupply of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October. Rising production from major producers is adding to supply concerns, as OPEC output increased in October, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, while US crude production reached a record 14.003 million bpd in the week ended October 30. China's crude oil imports recovered to 9.88 million bpd in October, up 9.4% month-on-month, marking their highest level since March. Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels, against market expectations of an increase of 877,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels to 209 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined by a significant 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million barrels. Refinery utilisation increased by 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%, indicating stronger processing activity. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd from 1.4 million bpd at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, but expects deferred demand to support stronger consumption in 2027. The International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production increased to 8.43 million bpd in September, although it remained below year-ago levels, while refinery disruptions continued to constrain operations. Speculative net long positions declined sharply by 14,468 contracts to 85,303 in the week ended November 3, reflecting reduced bullish positioning. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 5.26% to 9,827 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 133, indicating fresh short positions. Support is placed at Rs. 7,920, followed by Rs. 7,745, while resistance is seen at Rs. 8,215, above which prices could test Rs. 8,330.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 7745-8330.

• Crude oil dropped after US ‌President Donald Trump downplayed the need for additional military action against Iran.

• The global oil market is showing signs of a return to excess supply as demand drops because of high prices.

• OPEC oil output rose in October, led by gains in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq despite continued constraints on exports.

• China's October crude oil imports rise to highest level since March

Natural gas

Natural gas prices gained 2.76% to settle at Rs. 308.80, supported by forecasts for cooler weather in late November, record gas flows to LNG export facilities and declining domestic production. Average US gas output across the Lower 48 states fell to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, compared with 113.4 bcfd in October and a record 115 bcfd in August. However, relatively mild weather and subdued demand have allowed energy companies to rebuild inventories, with gas storage estimated to stand 2.1% above the five-year average during the week ended November 6. US energy firms added 77 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ended October 30, below market expectations of 81 bcf, taking total inventories to 3.801 trillion cubic feet, 2.8% below year-earlier levels but 1.4% above the five-year average. The US Energy Information Administration expects both production and consumption to reach record levels in 2026 and 2027. Dry gas production is projected to rise to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also expected to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, providing an important source of demand support. However, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and expectations that supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. The bank expects the US market to remain comfortably supplied in the medium term, limiting the potential for a sustained price recovery. Meanwhile, speculative net short positions increased by 19,032 contracts to 224,495 in the week ended November 3, reflecting continued bearish positioning. Technically, natural gas is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 7.65% to 37,269 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 8.30. Support is placed at Rs. 302.50, followed by Rs. 296.50, while resistance is seen at Rs. 313, above which prices could test Rs. 317.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 296.50-317.50.

• Natural gas rose on forecasts for cooler weather in late November, record gas flows to LNG and a drop in output.

• Storage rose by 77 bcf, below forecasts for an 81 Bcf build, bringing total stocks to 3.801 trillion cubic feet.

• Inventories remained 2.8% below year-earlier levels but 1.4% above the five-year average.

• Speculative net short deepened by 19,032 to −2,24,495 contracts: speculators added 34 longs and added 19,066 shorts.

Copper

Copper prices declined 1.04% to settle at Rs. 1,337.30, pressured by a selloff in technology stocks and weakening sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence investment, although tightening supply conditions limited further losses. Citi lowered its three-month copper price forecast to $13,300 per tonne from $14,500, warning that weaker AI sentiment and reduced expectations of US tariffs could trigger further selling. However, underlying supply concerns remain supportive, with SHFE-monitored warehouse inventories falling more than 75% over the past six months to just 33,848 tonnes, while China's Yangshan copper premium climbed to a record $230 per tonne. LME cash-to-three-month copper backwardation widened to $175.39 per tonne, indicating tight nearby availability. China's October copper concentrate imports declined 11% year-on-year to 2.17 million tonnes, while January-October imports fell 3.8% to 24.14 million tonnes, reflecting weaker availability of smelter feedstock amid deeply negative treatment charges and falling sulphuric acid prices. Refined copper and copper product imports declined 1.7% month-on-month to 453,000 tonnes in October but remained 3.4% higher year-on-year. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July, taking the January-August surplus to 218,000 tonnes. On the supply side, Chile's copper production faced operational challenges, with overall output declining 9.4% in July. Production at Codelco fell 5% year-on-year to 112,800 tonnes, while output at Escondida dropped 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes. Chile's copper commission Cochilco lowered its production outlook and raised its average copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027, citing constrained mine supply. Meanwhile, US refined copper imports declined 3.1% month-on-month to 194,284 tonnes in September but remained nearly double year-earlier levels. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 4.36% to 7,422 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 14.10, indicating fresh short positions. Support is placed at Rs. 1,332.50, followed by Rs. 1,327.50, while resistance is seen at Rs. 1,344.50, above which prices could test Rs. 1,352.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1327.50-1352.00.

• Copper dropped weighed down by a rout in technology stocks, although supply concerns limited the downside.

• China's October copper concentrate imports fell 11% compared to last year.

• Buyers in biggest consumer China are facing record premiums, amid shortfalls in copper concentrate and refined copper stocks.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined 0.76% to settle at Rs. 410.35, pressured by expectations of recovering Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability, which could gradually ease supply tightness. However, downside remained limited amid tightening global mine supply, declining refined production and concerns over disruptions at major smelters. Operational issues at Korea Zinc, Glencore's Kazzinc and YoungPoong's Seokpo smelter have raised concerns about potential supply losses, while uncertainty surrounding Nyrstar's loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands is adding to Western supply risks. China's refined zinc production declined 3.5% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year in October 2026, while cumulative January-October output fell 1.5% year-on-year, below expectations. However, November refined production is forecast to recover 4.6% month-on-month due to maintenance recoveries and production ramp-ups at several smelters, although output is expected to remain 4.8% lower year-on-year. China's manufacturing activity remained resilient, with the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 in October, marking the eleventh consecutive month of expansion. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored zinc inventories declined 6.3% from the previous Friday, highlighting tightening domestic availability. Western refined zinc production fell 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material supplies. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market recorded a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August against a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, although the January-August period maintained a surplus of 96,000 tonnes. Looking ahead, the ILZSG expects the global market to shift to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027 from an estimated deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026, supported by a 2% increase in refined production and a 3% rise in mine output. Global demand is projected to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027. Technically, zinc is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 1.34% to 1,549 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 3.15. Support is placed at Rs. 409.00, followed by Rs. 407.50, while resistance is seen at Rs. 413.00, above which prices could test Rs. 415.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 407.50-415.50.

• Zinc dropped as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

• In October 2026, China's refined zinc production fell 3.5% MoM and 12% YoY.

• Operational incidents at Korea Zinc, Glencore’s Kazzinc and YoungPoong’s Seokpo smelter have raised concerns about potential supply losses.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 1.63% to settle at Rs. 325.40, pressured by expectations of improving global supply and a potential market surplus in 2027. Recovering Middle East production, resilient Chinese output and expanding Indonesian capacity are expected to narrow the current year's supply deficit and improve availability. Estimates of Middle East production losses have been revised downward from 3–3.5 million tonnes to less than 2 million tonnes as smelter operations gradually recover. Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected by the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China's primary aluminium production reached a record quarterly level of 11.84 million tonnes in July-September, up 2.2% year-on-year. September production increased 3.1% to 3.91 million tonnes, while January-September output rose 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, supported by strong smelting margins and high operating rates. The International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production of 6.014 million tonnes in September, compared with 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier, indicating continued year-on-year contraction. However, improving operational rates and capacity restarts could gradually increase global availability. On the demand side, global inventories have declined to around 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, providing underlying support to prices. Additionally, Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored aluminium inventories fell 30.6% from the previous Friday, highlighting tightening domestic stocks. Jefferies noted that aluminium prices have declined around 17% since early June, partly due to expectations of Middle East capacity restarts, although high alumina import costs and weak smelter economics could delay some production recoveries and planned capacity additions. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 2.5% to 3,688 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 5.40, indicating fresh short positions. Support is placed at Rs. 323, followed by Rs. 321, while resistance is seen at Rs. 329, above which prices could test Rs. 332.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 321.00-332.00.

• Aluminium dropped amid concerns over improving global supply prospects and expectations of a potential market surplus in 2027.

• Global inventories fell to 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, as demand remained strong.

• Global primary aluminium production in September 2026 was 6.014 mln tonnes, down from 6.10 mln tonnes a year earlier - IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.23% to settle at Rs. 28,414, as tight pipeline supplies, lower acreage estimates and concerns over adverse weather conditions supported the market, although profit booking emerged after the recent sharp rally. Overseas inquiries from Bangladesh, the Middle East and Southeast Asia temporarily slowed as buyers awaited price stability, while physical trading across Nizamabad, Sangli and Erode remained cautious due to elevated prices. Total arrivals declined to approximately 6,000 bags, around 2,000 bags lower than the previous session, providing additional support. Weather conditions remain a major concern, with persistently dry conditions across Maharashtra potentially affecting crop growth and yields, while forecast cyclonic rainfall in South India could create further uncertainty depending on its intensity and timing. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, improving crop prospects. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags against more than 20 lakh bags last season, indicating a tighter availability position. Meanwhile, stronger demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers is supporting compliant stocks, although stricter European Union maximum residue limits have created challenges for non-compliant supplies. India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Shipments to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil increased 50%, 57% and 37%, respectively, while exports to Bangladesh declined sharply by 85%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices declined 0.11% to Rs. 24,954.10. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.29% to 19,190 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 66, indicating fresh long positions. Support is placed at Rs. 28,160, followed by Rs. 27,910, while resistance is seen at Rs. 28,560, above which prices could test Rs. 28,700.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 27910-28700.

• Turmeric prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

• Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

• Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 24954.1 Rupees dropped by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices surged 3.04% to settle at Rs. 28,460, supported by rising export demand, tightening domestic and global supplies, and concerns over adverse weather conditions affecting the upcoming crop. Limited Syrian supplies have increased dependence on Indian cumin, strengthening export demand, while the El Niño phenomenon has raised concerns over rainfall patterns and water availability in key growing regions. Gujarat declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch scarcity-hit, highlighting growing agricultural concerns. However, expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan, along with favorable residual soil moisture and improved harvesting conditions, limited aggressive buying. Farmers have also been liquidating existing stocks to generate funds for the upcoming season, while processors and millers have restricted procurement at elevated prices. Indian cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags against 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Internationally, China's cumin production is estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. Meanwhile, India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, while cumulative April-August shipments fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes last year. Although exports to the USA, Singapore and Mexico increased, shipments to the UAE and Bangladesh declined sharply. On a broader basis, exports during September 2025-August 2026 declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices edged up 0.01% to Rs. 27,181.10. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 10.45% to 3,831 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 840, indicating covering of existing short positions. Support is placed at Rs. 27,590, followed by Rs. 26,730, while resistance is seen at Rs. 29,010, above which prices could test Rs. 29,570.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 26730-29570.

• Jeera gained amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

• Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

• With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 27181.1 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

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