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Gold

Gold came under sharp pressure, declining by 3.2% to settle at 1,39,493, as investors remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainty around Middle East de-escalation efforts. Conflicting signals between the U.S. and Iran regarding potential negotiations have kept markets on edge, while expectations for U.S. monetary policy have shifted significantly. Markets are now pricing in almost no chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, compared to earlier expectations of multiple cuts, which has weighed heavily on bullion. On the fundamental side, COMEX gold inventories have dropped to 16.51 million ounces, the lowest since November, reflecting tightening physical availability. However, ETF outflows continue, indicating weak investor participation. In India, discounts narrowed slightly due to festive buying and a sharp price correction, although jewellers remained largely inactive due to financial year-end adjustments. In China and other Asian markets, premiums softened, highlighting subdued physical demand. Central bank buying remains a supportive long-term factor, with continued accumulation expected despite slightly slower momentum at elevated price levels. Geopolitical uncertainty and dedollarisation trends are likely to keep underlying demand intact. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping sharply by 22.26% alongside a steep price fall of Rs.4,604. Immediate support is seen at 1,38,075, with further downside towards 1,36,650. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,41,810, and a move above this level could extend gains towards 1,44,120.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 136650-144120.

* Gold prices ‌fell as investors awaited clearer signs of progress in Middle East de-escalation efforts.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting.

* India extends UAE gold import authorisations to June 30

Silver

Silver witnessed a sharp decline, dropping 6.37% to settle at 2,19,874, as a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed heavily on prices. The metal has been under sustained pressure this month, with rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict fueling inflation concerns and pushing major central banks toward a more hawkish stance. Market sentiment remains fragile amid mixed signals on potential peace talks. While the U.S. has indicated ongoing negotiations and even proposed a roadmap to de-escalate tensions, Iran has firmly denied any willingness to engage, adding to uncertainty. This geopolitical backdrop continues to keep volatility elevated across financial markets. Fed officials have also struck a cautious tone, emphasizing that future policy decisions will depend heavily on how inflation and growth evolve amid the ongoing conflict. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,065 tonnes at the end of February, down 2.4% from the previous month, reflecting a modest tightening in physical availability. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 0.73% alongside a steep price fall of Rs.14,960, indicating aggressive short positions. Immediate support is seen at 2,17,440, with further downside towards 2,15,000. On the upside, resistance is placed at 2,23,880, and a move above this level could push prices towards 2,27,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 215000-227880.

* Silver prices fell pressured by a firm U.S. dollar and fading hopes for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

* However conflicting statements from the US and Iran over potential peace talks continued to unsettle financial markets.

* Fed’s Goolsbee, said the US interest rate outlook depends on inflation.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged sharply, gaining 5.88% to settle at 8,999, as escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to fuel concerns over global supply disruptions. The ongoing conflict has already led to significant constraints in oil flows, particularly through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a major share of global shipments. According to the International Energy Agency, the crisis has triggered one of the largest supply disruptions in history, with millions of barrels per day affected and emergency stock releases being considered to stabilize markets.  Additional support came from reports that a substantial portion of Russia’s export capacity has been disrupted, further tightening global supply. At the same time, Venezuela has increased production to around 1.1 million barrels per day, offering limited relief. However, rising U.S. inventories—up by nearly 6.9 million barrels—highlight that supply dynamics remain mixed, even as geopolitical risks dominate price action. Overall, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with supply risks outweighing bearish inventory data in the near term. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, reflected in a 3.92% rise in open interest alongside a Rs.500 price gain, indicating strong long buildup. Immediate support is seen at 8,804, with further downside towards 8,609. On the upside, resistance is placed at 9,131, and a move above this level could push prices towards 9,263.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8609-9263.

* Crude oil gains on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

* Venezuela oil production has reached 1.1 mln bpd in March

* US crude oil stockpiles rose last week to highest since June 2024, EIA says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices moved higher, gaining 1.74% to settle at 281.1, tracking the broader rally in global energy markets driven by supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Concerns intensified after reports suggested nearly 20% of global LNG supply is currently offline, with QatarEnergy declaring force majeure on some deliveries due to infrastructure damage, tightening the global supply outlook. On the domestic front, U.S. production remains strong, averaging 109.6 bcfd in March, close to record levels. However, mild weather conditions have reduced heating demand, allowing utilities to begin injecting gas into storage earlier than usual. Weather forecasts continue to point toward above-normal temperatures into early April, which is likely to keep demand subdued in the near term. LNG export flows have also edged slightly lower from recent highs, adding another layer of softness to demand. Storage data showed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 54 bcf, bringing total inventories to 1.829 trillion cubic feet—still above both last year’s levels and the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects production to rise further in 2026, while demand may ease slightly. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 12.74% alongside a Rs.4.8 price gain, indicating strong long buildup. Immediate support is seen at 275.7, with further downside towards 270.2. Resistance is placed at 285, and a move above this level could push prices towards 288.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 270.2-288.8.

* Natural gas climbed as the gas market followed the rise in global energy prices due to supply disruptions from the Iran war.

* QatarEnergy declaring Force Majeure on LNG delivery contracts to several countries, citing infrastructure damage.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 109.6 bcfd so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 1.05% to settle at 1,138.9, as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. Conflicting signals from the U.S. and Iran over potential peace talks have kept markets cautious, while rising energy prices are adding to concerns about inflation and slowing global industrial activity. Adding to the pressure, inventories in LME-approved warehouses have surged to an eight-year high of 361,075 tonnes, up sharply by 153% since the start of the year. This build-up highlights ample near-term supply and has dampened bullish sentiment. On the demand side, Chinese buying has eased after a phase of dip-led restocking, with imports of unwrought copper down 16.1% year-on-year in the first two months. However, imports of copper concentrates have shown some resilience, rising 4.9%, indicating steady underlying processing demand. Outlook from major institutions remains mixed. While Citi has turned cautious in the near term, Goldman Sachs and UBS continue to maintain a constructive longer-term view, supported by expectations of a widening supply deficit and steady consumption growth. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 6.31% alongside a price decline of Rs.12.1, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is seen at 1,135.2, with further downside towards 1,131.6. Resistance is placed at 1,145.2, and a move above this level could push prices towards 1,151.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1131.6-1151.6.

* Copper dropped as conflicting statements from the US and Iran over potential peace talks weighed.

* Stocks in LME-approved warehouses hitting an-eight year high, up 153% since the start of the year.

* Citi has become more cautious about the outlook for industrial metals as the Middle East conflict clouds the macroeconomic backdrop.

Zinc

Zinc prices remained largely flat, slipping marginally by 0.02% to settle at 309.85, as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising oil prices weighed on overall market sentiment. However, the downside was limited due to persistent concerns over tight supply conditions and historically low inventory levels in some regions. Fundamentally, the market is balancing mixed signals. On one hand, improving industrial activity in China—where output rose 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026—has offered some support. On the other hand, rising inventories, particularly in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses (up 3.3%), indicate that supply pressure remains elevated while consumption recovery is still uneven. Adding to supply, the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine and ramp-up at the Kipushi project in Congo are gradually improving global availability. Globally, the zinc market has shifted into a small surplus, with data showing a 9,200-ton surplus in January. While demand is expected to grow modestly by around 2% annually, increasing mine supply is likely to keep the market well-supplied in the near term. Still, longer-term projections suggest tightening conditions beyond 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.58% alongside a marginal price dip. Immediate support is seen at 308.6, with further downside towards 307.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 311.8, and a move above this level could push prices towards 313.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 307.3-313.7.

* Zinc settled flat as a stronger US dollar and rising oil prices weighed on investor sentiment

* Zinc also received support from China’s industrial recovery, with output rising 6.3% yoy in the first two months of 2026

* Chinese Zinc output up 6.4% in Jan-Feb 2026

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.39% to settle at 336.15, supported by tightening global supply conditions and a sharp drawdown in exchange inventories. LME aluminium stocks have dropped 32.6% since Q4 2025 to 423,075 tonnes, offering less than three days of global consumption cover—an unusually tight buffer that is adding to price volatility. Concerns are also building around raw material supply, as Guinea considers imposing bauxite export quotas, potentially disrupting nearly 40% of global feedstock supply. On the supply side, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to create disruptions. Output cuts from Aluminium Bahrain and reduced operations at Qatalum have tightened availability, although Emirates Global Aluminium has managed to reroute shipments, easing some immediate concerns. At the same time, production increases in regions like the UK and China are partially offsetting supply risks. However, elevated inventories above 1.3 million tonnes and subdued buying interest reflect demand-side caution amid high prices and macro uncertainty. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 7.06% to 2,713 lots alongside a price gain of Rs.1.3. Aluminium is now finding support at 334.7, with a break below potentially testing 333.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at 338.7, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards 341.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 333.1-341.1.

* Aluminium gains as LME aluminium inventories contract to 423,075 tonnes representing a 32.6% decline since Q4 2025

* Exchange stockpiles saw another daily withdrawal of 3,675 tonnes.

* Alvance British Aluminium confirms 10% output boost to 40,000 tonnes annually at Lochaber smelter.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices moved higher, settling up by 1.95% at 14,444, supported by tight arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. With farmers and stockists already holding lower inventories, the market is finding a strong base ahead of fresh crop inflows. However, the upside remains capped as arrivals from Erode are expected to increase significantly over the next couple of weeks, which could ease supply tightness. On the production front, the 2025–26 crop outlook reflects a mixed picture. Acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Still, erratic weather and disease issues—especially in Maharashtra—have impacted yields, with losses of 15–20% reported in some regions. Overall dried production is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last year, though lower carry-forward stocks are limiting supply expansion. Export trends remain mixed, with January shipments down 19% YoY, but cumulative exports slightly higher, indicating stable medium-term demand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, reflected in a 2.15% drop in open interest alongside a price rise of Rs.276. Immediate support is seen at 14,240, with further downside towards 14,036. On the upside, resistance is placed at 14,598, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards 14,752.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14036-14752.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14850.65 Rupees gained by 1.19 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged higher by 0.68% to settle at 22,095, supported by concerns over rising temperatures in North Gujarat. Heatwave conditions could impact seed development in late-sown crops, potentially trimming yields further. Overall production is already expected to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this season. Gujarat’s output may drop sharply due to lower acreage and weaker yields, while Rajasthan is likely to offset some of the decline with improved production. Despite these supply-side concerns, gains remain capped as fresh crop arrivals have started entering the market and are expected to pick up pace through March. Comfortable existing stocks and weak export demand continue to weigh on sentiment. Export data also reflects this softness, with January shipments plunging 48% year-on-year and cumulative exports down 15%. Globally, supply disruptions in countries like Syria and Turkey are offering some support, but demand from overseas buyers remains subdued. On the domestic front, demand for premium-quality jeera is steady, although lower-grade varieties are seeing price fluctuations in line with arrivals. Weather risks, including aphid infestations in Rajasthan, are also being closely monitored. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 2.32% while prices gained Rs.150. Immediate support is seen at 22,010, with further downside towards 21,910. Resistance is placed at 22,200, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards 22,290.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21910-22290.

* Jeera gained as IMD heatwave warning for Gujarat growing belts threaten late-sown crops

* Production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.

* Rajasthan’s output is projected to rise 15 per cent to 3.29 lt, supported by a 4 per cent rise in area.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21842.8 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.