IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices dropped sharply by 3.62% to settle at 1,39,260, although losses were partially trimmed after reports that President Donald Trump delayed potential strikes on Iran, citing ongoing discussions. Despite this temporary relief, gold extended its losing streak for the ninth straight session, hitting its lowest level since early January. The broader weakness comes as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations of rate cuts and even price in a possible rate hike by the US Federal Reserve later this year. Adding to the pressure, central banks have turned more cautious, with policymakers signaling that interest rates will remain elevated until inflation shows clear signs of easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also acknowledged that rate hike discussions have surfaced, reinforcing a hawkish outlook. At the same time, there are concerns that some economies may liquidate gold reserves to cushion the economic impact of the ongoing conflict. In the physical market, Indian gold discounts narrowed slightly from last week’s multi-year highs, supported by festive demand and a correction in prices, though overall buying interest remained subdued. In contrast, premiums in China softened, reflecting weaker demand. Central bank buying also slowed, with net purchases at just 5 tonnes in January, although long-term accumulation trends remain intact. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 16.36% to 5,012. Gold is finding support at 1,31,800, with further downside toward 1,24,345, while resistance is seen at 1,44,505, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,49,755.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 124345-149755.

* Gold trimmed early losses, after President Trump postponed strikes on Iran for five days.

* Fed’s Waller, said that based on the jobs report alone, he was planning to dissent in the monetary policy decision.

* The US Fed left interest rates unchanged and expressed concern about the impact of rising oil prices on inflation.

Silver

Silver prices slipped by 0.71% to settle at 2,25,167, though the market managed to recover some early losses after reports that President Donald Trump postponed potential strikes on Iran for five days. While this offered temporary relief, the broader sentiment remains weak, with silver hovering near its lowest levels since December. The recent sharp correction—over 15% last week—has been largely driven by rising oil prices and mounting inflation concerns, which have shifted expectations toward prolonged monetary tightening. Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, BoE, and BoJ, have maintained a cautious stance, signaling that rates could stay higher for longer. Markets are now pushing back expectations of Fed rate cuts to 2027, while pricing in further rate hikes in Europe, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. On the macro front, stronger-than-expected US labor data, with jobless claims falling to 205,000, has further reinforced the hawkish outlook. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults declined by 2.4% to 27,065 tonnes, indicating some tightening in physical availability. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.3% to 6,082 alongside the price decline. Silver is finding support at 2,06,770, with further downside toward 1,88,380. On the upside, resistance is seen at 2,36,425, and a move above this level could push prices toward 2,47,690.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 188380-247690.

* Silver pared early losses after President Trump delayed strikes on Iran for five days, citing "productive conversations" with Tehran.

* However, Iran’s Fars News Agency denied any negotiations, attributing Trump’s move to Iran’s threat to strike all West Asian power plants.

* Last week, silver crashed over 15% as markets braced for prolonged monetary tightening, including a possible Fed rate hike by year-end.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices saw a sharp correction, settling lower by 9.86% at 8345 after easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The decline followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pause planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing constructive discussions with Iran. This move helped calm immediate fears of supply disruption, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. Markets quickly reacted as the perceived risk premium faded, shifting focus toward the progress of ongoing diplomatic efforts. On the supply side, developments remained mixed. Libya’s El Feel oilfield remains shut due to pipeline disruptions, while the International Energy Agency signaled readiness to release additional reserves if required, after already announcing a record 400 million barrel release. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose sharply by 6.16 million barrels, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase, indicating ample supply. However, declines in gasoline and distillate stocks pointed to steady demand. Russian output dipped marginally, while Kazakhstan reported a recovery in production. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 15.33% to 14,034. Prices are now finding support at 7738, with a break below potentially testing 7131. On the upside, resistance is seen at 9286, and a move above this level could push prices toward 10227.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7131-10227.

* Crude oil dropped after President Trump signaled de-escalation by ordering a five day pause on planned US strikes.

* IEA consulting with governments on further oil stock releases, chief Birol says

* Libya's El Feel oilfield has been in shutdown since Thursday.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices came under sharp pressure, falling 5.35% to settle at 272.7, as easing geopolitical tensions and softer demand outlook weighed on sentiment. The decline followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay military action against Iranian targets, which cooled global energy prices and reduced immediate supply concerns. At the same time, forecasts for milder weather in the U.S. over the next couple of weeks have lowered expectations for heating demand. On the supply side, production remains strong. Output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 109.8 bcfd so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February and not far from the record 110.6 bcfd seen in December 2025. Unseasonably mild weather has also allowed injections into storage, with the EIA reporting a 35 bcf build—an early sign that the winter withdrawal season is winding down. Demand is expected to edge up slightly next week, but overall projections remain softer than earlier estimates. Looking ahead, the EIA continues to project rising production through 2027, even as domestic consumption is expected to ease slightly in 2026. LNG exports, however, are set to grow steadily. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping sharply by 35.12%. Immediate support is seen at 263.7, with further downside toward 254.6, while resistance is placed at 289.2 and then 305.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.6-305.6.

* Natural gas fell on a drop in global energy prices after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would postpone military strikes.

* Pressure also seen on forecasts for milder weather and less gas demand in U.S. over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 109.8 bcfd so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, gaining 1.19% to settle at 1121.2, supported by easing geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a delay in military action against Iran’s energy infrastructure. This helped improve overall market sentiment. Adding to the positive tone were early signs of demand recovery in China, where inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined for the first time since December, and the Yangshan premium rose to $48 per ton, reflecting stronger import appetite. However, the upside remains capped by ample global supply. Copper inventories at LME warehouses continue to hover near multi-year highs at 334,100 tons, with a wide cash-to-three-month discount indicating comfortable near-term availability. While China’s stronger factory data and post-Lunar New Year restocking offer support, weak import figures and elevated stock levels still weigh on sentiment. On the broader outlook, major institutions remain bullish. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price forecast to $12,200 per ton, while UBS expects prices to reach $15,000 within 13 months amid a widening supply deficit. Citi also maintains a constructive near-term view, citing improving demand conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 23.38%. Copper is finding support at 1079.7, with further downside toward 1038.3, while resistance is seen at 1146.5 and a breakout could push prices toward 1171.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1038.3-1171.9.

* Copper prices jumped after U.S. President Donald Trump said he will order the U.S. military to postpone any military strikes.

* Also supporting sentiment were signs that demand might be recovering in top consumer China.

* China Jan-Feb refined copper output up 9% y/y at 2.47 mln metric tons - stats bureau

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher, gaining 0.88% to settle at 310.35, supported by a weaker dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a pause in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The move raised hopes of de-escalation, improving overall market sentiment. Prices also found support from concerns around tight supply, ongoing mine disruptions, and historically low inventories in some regions. That said, the upside remains limited. Zinc inventories in China continue to build and have reached relatively high levels in recent years, highlighting persistent supply pressure. Stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% over the week, while LME inventories also remain elevated. At the same time, demand recovery has been slower than expected, despite encouraging signs from China, where industrial output grew 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026. On the supply front, developments remain mixed. The restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project are adding to global supply, while Peru’s production showed a strong yearly increase. Although the global zinc market recorded a smaller deficit in 2025, forecasts suggest a slight surplus in the near term. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 34.48%. Zinc has immediate support at 303.4, with further downside toward 296.3, while resistance is seen at 317.8, and a breakout could lead to 325.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 296.3-325.1.

* Zinc gained as dollar dropped below 99 after President Trump postpone all planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

* Support also seen amid a low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* China Jan-Feb zinc output 5.4% y/y at 1.198 mln metric tons - stats bureau

Aluminium

Aluminium prices remained largely subdued, slipping marginally by 0.12% to settle at 330.9, as mixed supply developments and demand concerns kept the market range-bound. On the supply side, output has picked up in some regions, with Alvance British Aluminium increasing production at its Lochaber smelter by around 10%, supported by improved export opportunities to the U.S. following tariff changes. At the same time, disruptions in the Middle East—such as partial shutdowns at Aluminium Bahrain and reduced operations at Qatalum—have offered some underlying support. However, broader sentiment remains cautious. Rising global inventories, now above 1.3 million tons—the highest since 2020—highlight ample supply, while elevated prices and higher energy costs continue to weigh on demand. This is evident in China, where imports have declined, even as domestic production rose by 3% in the first two months of the year. Globally, aluminium output has also edged higher, reinforcing the supply-side pressure. In the physical market, premiums remain firm, with European duty-paid premiums touching $450 per ton, reflecting localized tightness. Meanwhile, concerns over Guinea potentially imposing bauxite export quotas have added uncertainty to the raw material outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 21.21%. Aluminium is finding support at 327.1, with a break below opening the door to 323.1, while resistance is seen at 334.2 and then 337.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 323.1-337.3.

* Aluminium dropped as Alvance boosts aluminium output by 10% at UK'S only primary plant.

* China Jan-Feb alumina output up 0.2% y/y at 15.18 mln metric tons - stats bureau

* Global primary aluminium output in February rose 0.9% year on year to 5.685 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 2.16% to settle at 14,218, mainly weighed down by expectations of a sharp rise in arrivals from Erode over the next couple of weeks. The pressure is also coming from increased acreage, supported by favourable rainfall during the sowing season. For 2025–26, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh production seen at 11.41 lakh tonnes. That said, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, while both farmers and stockists have reduced holdings, creating a supportive base ahead of the new crop. Weather-related disruptions, including heavy rainfall and disease issues, have impacted yields across key states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. Despite this, higher acreage is expected to push overall output to around 90 lakh bags, compared to 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks will cap supply growth. Demand remains steady both domestically and globally, with export trends showing mixed signals—monthly exports are down, but cumulative shipments remain stable. Imports, on the other hand, have declined sharply, indicating reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.08% to 16,820 as prices dropped. Turmeric is currently finding support at 13,882, with further downside toward 13,548. On the upside, resistance is seen at 14,484, and a move above this level could push prices toward 14,752.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13548-14752.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14760.6 Rupees dropped by -1.87 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.65% to settle at 21,780, pressured by the arrival of the new crop in key markets. With arrivals expected to gain momentum through March, supply-side pressure is likely to persist. Additionally, weak export demand and sufficient existing stocks have kept sentiment subdued, limiting any immediate upside. That said, the downside appears somewhat restricted due to lower production estimates. Output for the current season is projected to fall around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes. Gujarat, in particular, is witnessing a sharp drop in production due to reduced acreage and lower yields, while Rajasthan is partially offsetting this with higher output. Weather disruptions and disease risks, including aphid infestation, remain key concerns for the crop. On the demand front, export performance continues to disappoint. January exports fell sharply by 48% year-on-year, and cumulative shipments are down 15%, reflecting weak global demand and limited buying interest from overseas markets. Despite tight supplies in competing countries like Syria and Turkey, India’s export demand has not picked up meaningfully. In the spot market, prices in Unjha also eased slightly, reflecting ongoing pressure from rising arrivals. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.86% to 7,020 alongside the price decline. Jeera is currently finding support at 21,450, with further downside toward 21,110. Resistance is seen at 22,090, and a break above this level could push prices toward 22,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21110-22390.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21667.85 Rupees dropped by -0.64 percent.