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Nifty : 19133

Technical Outlook

• The index started the weekly expiry session with a positive gap and sustained above the same throughout the session. Consequently, daily price action formed a bull candle carrying higher high-low, indicating resumption of up trend after two sessions breather

• Going ahead, we expect index to extend the ongoing pullback and gradually head towards 19450 in coming weeks as it is 61.8% retracement of last leg of decline (19850-18838). However, the move towards 19450 would be in a non linear manner tracking elevated global volatility.

• The broader markets are undergoing healthy retracement wherein >75% percentage of stocks (Nifty 500 Universe) are trading above 200-day ema in October against March23 reading <40%, indicating shallow nature of profit taking amid robust price structure

• The formation of higher low signifies supportive efforts at elevated levels that makes us revise the support base upward at 18800 as it is confluence of 200 days EMA coincided with previous swing high of 18887 which would now act as key support as per change of polarity concept

Nifty Bank: 43017

Technical Outlook

• The price action for the day formed another Doji candle indicating lack of follow through above 200 -day ema after a gap up led by global cues . Index needs to sustain above 43500 to indicate follow through strength else consolidation to continue in the band of 42500 -43500 in coming few sessions in the vicinity of 52 -week ema (42700 )

• Going forward, we expect index to form the base amid oversold readings and then gradually head higher towards 43500 -44000 . Therefore, use dips as buying opportunity in large banks (private and PSU both) as we expect index to hold key support of 42000 . Key support is placed at 41800 levels as it is a confluence of :

• 61 . 8 % retracement of entire rally from March 2023 (38613 -46369),

• value of rising 52 -week ema which has been held on couple of occasions since CY2020 currently at 42700 (transitory breach usually is sign of capitulation)

• Structurally, Index is in the process of undergoing a retracement of March to July rally over while pricing in various negatives in the process . We believe current decline would lead to a strong higher base formation that would set the base formation for next leg of structural up trend

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