Global Steel Demand to Decline for Third Straight Year by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
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The World Steel Association has downgraded its 2024 global steel demand forecast, now expecting a decline of 0.9% to 1.75 billion metric tons, compared to the previously anticipated 1.7% growth. The revision marks the third consecutive year of declining demand amid weak manufacturing and economic growth. China's troubled property sector continues to weigh on demand, with a 3% drop expected this year and a further 1% decline in 2025. However, India is projected to drive global demand growth with an 8% increase in 2024 and 8.5% in 2025. Steel demand in the U.S. and Europe is also set to fall in 2024 but could see recovery by 2025.
Key Highlights
# World Steel Association lowers 2024 demand forecast by 0.9%.
# Global steel demand to reach 1.75 billion metric tons in 2024.
# China to face continued decline due to property sector woes.
# India expected to lead growth, with demand rising 8% in 2024.
# U.S. and Europe anticipate demand recovery starting in 2025.
Global steel demand is projected to decline for the third consecutive year in 2024, according to the World Steel Association's latest forecast. The revised outlook predicts a 0.9% drop to 1.75 billion metric tons, a significant shift from April's anticipated growth of 1.7%. The downturn reflects persistent challenges in the global manufacturing sector and sluggish economic growth, with major economies experiencing downward revisions.
Price performance has been impacted by China's ongoing property sector struggles, which have limited steel consumption. The world's largest steel consumer is expected to see demand fall by 3% this year, with a further 1% decline projected for 2025. These trends continue to weigh on global steel prices, with Chinese steel futures experiencing notable fluctuations.
On the other hand, India is poised to bolster global demand, as the country's construction and infrastructure activities push steel consumption upward. Projected increases of 8% in 2024 and 8.5% in 2025 signal strong growth prospects. In the U.S., consumption is set to slip by 1.5% next year but could see a recovery of 2% by 2025, while the combined demand in the EU and Britain may drop 1.5% in 2024 before rebounding by 3.5% in 2025.
Other news from the sector highlights the postponement of the anticipated demand recovery, which is now expected to begin in 2025, as major steel producers continue to adapt to market challenges and adjust production accordingly.
Finally
The global steel market faces another challenging year in 2024, with recovery anticipated in 2025, driven primarily by growth in India and gradual stabilization in Western markets.
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