Index opened the week on positive note and clocked a fresh All time high, however profit booking emerged at elevated levels - ICICI Direct
Nifty :25683
Technical Outlook
Week that was…
Indian equities snapped two weeks winning streak and settled volatile week on a subdued note. Nifty underperformed its global peers and settled the week at 25700, down 2.5%. Broader market mirrored the benchmark weakness, with most sectors ending in red- Oil & Gas, Power and metal, leading the dragged. Only defense managed to buck the trend.
Technical Outlook:
* The index opened the week on a flat note and clocked a fresh alltime high, however lack of follow through strength resulted in to profit booking and accelerated its decline on breaching 26000 level. As a result, weekly price action formed bearish candle engulfing past seven-weeks trading activity, indicating pause in upward momentum.
* Contrary to expectations, the Nifty slipped below the positive gap support around 25,700, which also coincides with the 50-day EMA, for the first time in the past three months. This breach signals a pause in the prevailing upward momentum, driven largely by profit-booking in key index heavyweights.
* The series of lower highs and lower lows for five-consecutive session, indicates corrective bias with the next support base placed around 25,300. For the market to meaningfully stabilize and attempt a pullback, a decisive close above the previous session’s high remains a critical prerequisite. In the process 26100 would act as an immediate resistance.
* Looking ahead, volatility is expected to stay elevated in the coming week amid geopolitical uncertainties, the commencement of the Q3 earnings season, and awaited clarity on the US–India trade deal.
* Structurally, Since Oct 2025, index has arrested multiple intermediate corrections in 3-4%. Subsequently, such correction offered incremental buying opportunity followed by gradual positive recovery in subsequent weeks. In the current scenario, the index has already corrected ~2.8% that hauled daily stochastic oscillator in oversold territory. indicating limited downside. Hence, one should avoid aggressive selling at current levels and focus on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong fundamentals as key support is placed at 25300 being 200 day-EMA and 61.8% retracement of preceding up-move (24580-26325)
Key Monitorable for the next week:
a) Inflation print: US and India
b) Key index heavy-weights Q3 results any positive outcome would improve market sentiment Intraday Rational:
* Trend- Lower high – Lower low formation
* Levels: Sell near 61.8% retracement of Friday decline(26030- 25725)
Nifty Bank : 59252
Technical Outlook
Week that was:
Bank Nifty ended the week on a negative note, at 59252 down 1.5%. Nifty PSU Bank Index performed in line with benchmark down 1% whereas Nifty Private Bank was down 1.3%.
Technical Outlook:.
* Index opened the week on positive note and clocked a fresh All time high, however profit booking emerged at elevated levels. As a result, weekly price action formed sizeable bear candle indicating breather.
* Key point to highlight is that, Since October 2025 Index has arrested intermediate corrections in the vicinity of 50-day EMA which acted as strong support. In current scenario also post decline from All time high Index is approaching towards its key support of 50-day EMA(58880).However to pause the ongoing corrective phase a decisive close above previous session high is a prerequisite and would help index to gradually resolve higher.
* In current scenario ,Since Dec 2025 Index has been oscillating within its developing rising channel and supportive efforts emerged from key moving average, Going ahead we expect Index hold this key support and gradually resolve higher towards 60400 being higher band of channel and consolidation range.
* Nifty PSU Bank Index took breather or slower pace of retracement as it retraced 50% of last weeks rally (8230- 8856). Going ahead we expect it to consolidate in range 8500-8850.
Intraday Rational:
* Trend- lower high- lower low formation
* Levels: Sell near 61.8% retracement of Friday decline(59930- 59442)
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