Global Liquidity Tracker: EM Flows Rebound- India Flows Hit 10-Month High, Driven by Large Cap Funds By Elara Capital
Global liquidity is gradually returning to EMs as concerns over tariff hikes begin to subside. Following Trump’s victory in Nov’24, there was a significant outflow of capital from EMs into the U.S. However, over the past three weeks, we’ve started to observe signs of a reversal. The strongest recovery in foreign inflows has been into India, Brazil, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, while South Korea is yet to see a similar rebound. In India, of the $7.7bn that exited (across allocation & dedicated funds) after the U.S. election, $960mn—or 12%—has returned in 3 weeks. Taiwan has seen a similar trend, with 10% of earlier redemptions reversing.
Crucially, foreign flows into U.S. funds remain strong and uninterrupted, averaging $6bn per week. The recent shift back toward EMs appears to be fuelled by new incremental liquidity, rather than a pullback from the U.S. Notably, domestic U.S. funds are under redemption pressure for the past six weeks.
India recorded its highest weekly inflow since July’24, at $724 mn. This was largely driven by $487mn going into Indiadedicated funds—the biggest in 7-months. All inflows were concentrated in large-cap funds. Over past 6-weeks, Indiadedicated funds attracted $1bn, split between $575mn into ETFs & $440mn into long-only large-cap funds. Luxembourgdomiciled funds accounted for 40% of these flows, followed by 35% from Ireland and 20% from the U.S. Meanwhile, Japanfocused funds have seen consistent outflows since Nov’24.
In other asset classes, junk bonds saw inflows of $3.6bn this week after 5-weeks of heavy redemptions totaling $31bn. On the other hand, gold funds saw outflows of $2.6bn following 15 straight weeks of inflows totaling $34bn. These movements may hint at an early easing in risk-off sentiment, though broader trends will be crucial to understand global risk appetite.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
