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Gold

yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 47175 as the dollar hit a four-week low, tracking falls in U.S. bond yields after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated an extension of the dovish policy. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would cut its monthly bond purchases before committing to an interest rate hike, clarifying the sequence of monetary policy adjustments are still months if not years in the future. Looking at U.S. monetary policy, while inflation is expected to spike in the second quarter, market experts says they doesn't think the Federal Reserve is in any hurry to raise interest rates. According to global rating agency Moody’s, the second wave of coronavirus infections is credit-negative and poses threat to economic recovery in India. Current ‘wedding season’, festivities like Akshaya Tritiya in the next few weeks, there is a possibility of gold prices gathering further momentum on the back of retail demand. India clocks over 2 lakh fresh cases in new record, Fresh cases of COVID-19, driven largely by relentless surges in infections in the country's metros. In the just concluded financial year, gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) saw record net inflows worth ₹6,918 crore, the highest ever in a year. As per data from Association of Mutual funds in India (Amfi), net inflows in gold ETFs jumped a massive 328% year-on-year from Rs1,613 crore in FY20. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.56% to settled at 11395 while prices up 567 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46811 and below same could see a test of 46446 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47410, a move above could see prices testing 47644.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46446-47644.

*  Gold rose to 7 week's high setled above 47150 level lifted as a string of encouraging economic data lifted prospects of a rise in inflation. 

* US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would cut its monthly bond purchases before committing to an interest rate hike

*  Current ‘wedding season’, festivities like Akshaya Tritiya, there is a possibility of gold prices gathering further momentum on the back of retail demand

                     

Silver

yesterday settled up by 1.33% at 68540 as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreated despite better-than-expected U.S. economic data, pushing more investors to bullion as a refuge against possible inflation ahead. U.S. data showed a better-than-expected rebound in retail sales in March, while weekly initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level since mid-March 2020. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday U.S. economy picked up speed going into the spring. Powell and other Fed officials, however, say the brighter economic forecasts and brief period of higher inflation will not affect monetary policy and the central bank will keep its support in place until the crisis is over. Italy cut its economic growth forecast for this year and said the budget deficit would surge to a 20-year high as the coronavirus crisis weighs on recovery prospects and pushes up government spending. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories in the US rose 0.5 percent from a month earlier in February of 2021, in line with market expectations and following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent growth in January. It was the 8th consecutive month of gains in business inventories. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.02% to settled at 9027 while prices up 902 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67901 and below same could see a test of 67263 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68981, a move above could see prices testing 69423.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 67263-69423.

*  Silver jumped as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreated despite better-than-expected U.S. economic data, pushing more investors to bullion

* U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday U.S. economy picked up speed going into the spring.

* U.S. data showed a better-than-expected rebound in retail sales in March

            

           

Crude oil

yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 4742 on profit booking after prices rallied after the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC raised forecasts for oil demand as major economies recover from the pandemic. Global oil demand and supply are set to be rebalanced in the second half of this year after the evaporation of demand in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged, according to the IEA’s monthly report. Producers may then need to pump a further 2 million bpd to meet the demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which has been withholding supply in tandem with other producers including Russia, this week raised its forecast for global oil demand this year. OPEC expects demand to rise by 70,000 bpd from last month’s forecast and global demand is likely to rise by 5.95 million bpd in 2021, it said. U.S. crude inventories were down by 5.9 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, more than double expectations for a 2.9 million-barrel decline. East Coast crude stocks hit a record low. Gasoline supplied to the market last week, an indicator of U.S. consumption of the fuel, increased to 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since August, EIA report said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -41.57% to settled at 3172 while prices down -10 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4698 and below same could see a test of 4655 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4778, a move above could see prices testing 4815.  

Trading Ideas:            

*  Crude oil trading range for the day is 4655-4815.

* Crude oil prices eased on profit booking after prices rallied as IEA and OPEC raised forecasts for oil demand as major economies recover from the pandemic.

* Global oil demand and supply are set to be rebalanced in the second half of this year after the evaporation of demand in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged

* OPEC expects demand to rise by 70,000 bpd from last month’s forecast and global demand is likely to rise by 5.95 million bpd in 2021

             

           

Nat.Gas

yesterday settled up by 1.63% at 199.5 on a slightly smaller than expected weekly storage build and near record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. That price increase came despite forecasts for less cold weather through the end of April than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 9. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 91.6 bcfd in March but still well below the record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 91.9 bcfd this week to 94.9 bcfd next week as the weather cools. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.0 bcfd so far in April, which would top March's monthly record of 10.8 bcfd. Germany imported 5.7% less natural gas in the first two months of 2021 but increased its bill by 2.6% over a year earlier, data from trade statistics office BAFA showed. BAFA's monthly figures showed January/February imports were 934,538 Terajoules (TJ), or 26.6 billion cubic metres (bcm), compared with 991,302 TJ recorded a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.87% to settled at 12428 while prices up 3.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 195.6 and below same could see a test of 191.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.2, a move above could see prices testing 204.8.           

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 191.6-204.8.

*Natural gas rose on a slightly smaller than expected weekly storage build and near record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports.

* That price increase came despite forecasts for less cold weather through the end of April than previously expected.

* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 61 bcf of gas into storage

           

           

Copper

yesterday settled up by 1.81% at 719.15 as Serbia has ordered China's Zijin Mining Group to halt work at a shaft at the country's only copper mine and to complete a waste water treatment plant after it failed to comply with environmental standards, the mining and energy minister said. Copper semis output in March stood at 1.84 million mt. The cumulative output from January to March was 4.49 million mt, an increase of 2.48% year-on-year due to a low base in the same period last year. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) injected a CNY 150 billion one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans into the banking system, while keeping the rate unchanged at 2.95 percent on April 15th 2021. The PBOC added the operation was a rollover of CNY 100 billion of maturing MLF loans due on Thursday, while also covering CNY 56.1 billion of targeted medium-term lending facility (TMLF) expiring later this month. The central bank also injected CNY 10 billion of seven-day reverse repos into the banking system on the day, offseting same amount of such short-term liquidity tool due on Thursday. Investors were tracking the latest vaccine developments Wednesday. U.S. health authorities on Tuesday recommended pausing the distribution of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine after six women under the age of 50 developed rare blood clots after getting the inoculation. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.41% to settled at 3204 while prices up 12.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 707.7 and below same could see a test of 696.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 725.2, a move above could see prices testing 731.2. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 696.2-731.2.

*  Copper gained as Serbia halts China-owned mine over environmental breaches

* Copper semis output in March stood at 1.84 million mt.

* PBOC injected a CNY 150 billion one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans into the banking system

         

           

Zinc

yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 229.7 as dollar sank to a new four-week low as Treasury yields pulled back from last month’s surge, with investors increasingly convinced by the Federal Reserve’s arguments that interest rates will stay low for some time. Chinese zinc smelters, produced 426,000 tonnes of zinc in March, up 7% year-on-year but down 9.8% month-on-month on a daily basis, as energy consumption curbs in inner Mongolia hit production. Zinc output is forecast to rise by 6,700 tonnes in April and another 10,000 tonnes in May, with the increases limited by maintenance and environmental inspections. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he will wait for inflation and employment to reach the goal before considering raising interest rates, and will reduce the scale of bond purchases before raising interest rates; The economy has entered a faster growth track, but one of the main risks is that the number of people infected in COVID-19 may surge again due to the mutant strain. The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve said that the growth of economic activities in the US accelerated from the end of February to the beginning of April, and consumer spending improved. In addition, the Dallas Fed President said that the higher yield of US bonds is natural, reflecting the improvement of economic prospects. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.26% to settled at 1764 while prices up 1.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 227.6 and below same could see a test of 225.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 230.9, a move above could see prices testing 232.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 225.5-232.1.

* Zinc gained as Treasury yields pulled back from last month’s surge, with investors increasingly convinced by Fed's arguments that interest rates will stay low for some time.

* China exports rise at robust pace in March, imports growth highest in 4 years

* Chinese zinc smelters produced 426,000 tonnes of zinc in March, up 7% year-on-year

           

 

           

Nickel

yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 1238.1 as refined nickel imports rose YoY in January and February, imports to exceed 10,000 mt again in March. China’s economy likely grew at record pace of 19% in the first quarter, rebounding from a pandemic slump early last year as demand recovered at home and abroad and as policy support for ailing smaller firms continued. While the reading will be heavily skewed by the plunge in activity a year earlier, the expected jump would be the strongest since at least 1992, when official quarterly records started. Russian metals producer Nornickel said on Tuesday it will boost output of nickel products at its Harjavalta plant in Finland as it bets on the expanding market for battery materials needed for electric vehicles (EV). Finland's state mining investment firm Finnish Minerals Group, German chemicals giant BASF and Finnish utility Fortum are among companies currently forming an EV battery cluster in Finland. The nickel price’s attempt at a comeback from the Tsingshan-induced slump was knocked back on Monday after successive warnings from China’s top politicians about raw material prices hurt sentiment across industrial metals markets. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to strengthen market regulation of raw materials to ease cost pressures for companies amid rising global commodities prices. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.47% to settled at 1468 while prices down -1.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1222.5 and below same could see a test of 1206.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1248.4, a move above could see prices testing 1258.6.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1206.8-1258.6.

*  Nickel prices fell as refined nickel imports rose YoY in January and February, imports to exceed 10,000 mt again in March. 

*  Data showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years

* Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to strengthen market regulation of raw materials to ease cost pressures for companies

           

           

Aluminium

yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 188.75 on strong demand and growing expectations that China’s supply will be limited due to carbon emission targets. The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia shut down 34 ferroalloy companies and some captive power plants as part of a series of measures to meet its energy consumption targets for the first quarter, which could curb aluminum production by around 100,000 tonnes on an annual basis. Aluminum prices are about 50% higher than a 4-year low of $1,462 hit last May driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit. Combined aluminium inventories in LME and ShFE warehouses have fallen 4.5% since a near-three-year high level hit on March 19, but current stockpiles of 2.23 million tonnes were still 43% higher than the beginning of the year. US consumer price index jumped 0.6% last month, the largest gain since August 2012, after rising 0.4% in February, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%. However, the rise was not expected to alter the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels for years to come. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.1% to settled at 2037 while prices up 0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 187.9 and below same could see a test of 187 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 189.9, a move above could see prices testing 191.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 187-191.

* Aluminium prices gained on strong demand and growing expectations that China’s supply will be limited due to carbon emission targets.

*  Combined aluminium inventories in LME and ShFE warehouses have fallen 4.5% since a near-three-year high level hit on March 19

*  US consumer price index jumped 0.6% last month, the largest gain since August 2012, after rising 0.4% in February

           

           

Mentha oil

yesterday settled flat amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1079.1 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.89% to settled at 41 while prices up 1.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 957.1 and below same could see a test of 954.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962, a move above could see prices testing 964.4.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 953.1-966.7.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -23.7 Rupees to end at 1055.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices settled flat amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

             

           

Soyabean

yesterday settled up by 4.49% at 7022 on concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China made huge purchases of grain and oilseeds. Soyabean production for the current season (October 2020-September 2021) has been projected at 104.55 lakh tonnes (lt), besides an opening stock of 5.16 lt. This is against last year’s production of 93.06 lt and opening stock of 1.70 lakh tonnes. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, in its second advance estimates of agricultural production, had pegged soyabean output at 137.1 lt. The SOPA said that out the total projected soyabean production, nearly 75 lt had arrived by March-end with 58.5 lt being crushed. Farmers could be holding 36.64 lt stocks. The Centre has pegged the soyabean crop higher at over 130 lt and SOPA at over 100 lt. The actual figure could be somewhere between. So, the huge rise in soyabean prices seem unjustified based on speculation over supplies. According to SEA, soyabean prices are about ₹27,500 a tonne higher than the same period year ago, while soyameal prices free-alongside ship are $710 (₹53,375) a tonne compared with $441 (₹33,150) a year ago. Soyameal consumption for feed dropped during the October-March period of the current season to 27 lt from 29.25 lt in the same period a year ago. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 350 Rupees to 7070 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.03% to settled at 110805 while prices down -121 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6580 and below same could see a test of 6440 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6964, a move above could see prices testing 7208.

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6699-7261.

*  Soyabean prices rallied on concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China made huge purchases of grain and oilseeds.

*  Soyabean production for the current season has been projected at 104.55 lakh tonnes (lt), besides an opening stock of 5.16 lt.

* The SOPA said that out the total projected soyabean production, nearly 75 lt had arrived by March-end with 58.5 lt being crushed.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  152 Rupees to 7222 Rupees per 100 kgs.

            

           

Ref.Soyaoil

yesterday settled flat at 1356.3 after the food ministry has sent a proposal to the Empowered Group of Ministers to review edible oil prices, and a meeting may be called soon. The government is likely to review edible oil prices soon. Sources said a decision on import duty reduction may be taken in that meeting. Country's total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1349.45 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.56% to settled at 36950 while prices up 28.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1337 and below same could see a test of 1319 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1365, a move above could see prices testing 1375.           

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1338-1372.

* Ref soyoil prices settled flat after the food ministry has sent a proposal to the Empowered Group of Ministers to review edible oil prices

* India’s total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period.

* The government is likely to review edible oil prices soon.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1390 Rupees per 10 kgs.

           

           

Crude palm Oil

yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 1158.2 as higher-than-expected inventories and production weighed on the market. The weakness is mainly due to higher crop output and rising inventories in Malaysia and bearish news from the biodiesel market. Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production, but a surge in exports kept domestic supply in check, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. The Brazilian government temporarily reduced its biodiesel blending requirement for diesel fuel to 10% from 13%, according to a Mines and Energy Ministry statement that cited strong demand for soy as a reason for the decision. In India, the biggest importer of Malaysian palm oil, buying activity has slowed as a surge in COVID-19 cases increased risks of a full lockdown in one state, which could hit vegetable oil demand during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The market was further weighed down by Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showing end-March palm oil stocks rose 10.7% from the previous month to 1.45 million tonnes. Inventories jumped more than expected to a four-month high, boosted by higher imports and production, but a surge in exports kept domestic supply in check, according to MPOB data. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -1 Rupees to end at 1168.8 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.02% to settled at 5197 while prices up 18.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1149.5 and below same could see a test of 1138.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1166.4, a move above could see prices testing 1172.6. 

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1140.2-1176.

* Crude palm oil prices dropped as higher-than-expected inventories and production weighed on the market.

* The weakness is mainly due to higher crop output and rising inventories in Malaysia and bearish news from the biodiesel market.

* Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 15 Rupees to end at 1185 Rupees.

          

           

Mustard Seed

yesterday settled up by 5.95% at 6834 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 218.25 Rupees to end at 6500.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.96% to settled at 80040 while prices down -37 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6385 and below same could see a test of 6321 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6519, a move above could see prices testing 6589.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6563-6973.

* Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.

 * compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February.

*  The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 670 Rupees to end at 7170.5 Rupees per 100 kg.   

                     

Turmeric

yesterday settled up by 2.12% at 8188 as support seen after preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5% on year on year basis to 13,026 tons against 12,462 tons in March 2020. However this year export growth is seen limited due to over 40% rise in turmeric prices. Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. The crop this year is at least 20 per cent lower as unseasonal rains affected the crop in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7752.8 Rupees gained 72.8 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.43% to settled at 10140 while prices down -364 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7800 and below same could see a test of 7580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8320, a move above could see prices testing 8620.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7886-8442.

* Turmeric prices gained as support seen after preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5%

* Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production.

* Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7661.75 Rupees dropped -91.05 Rupees.

           

Jeera

yesterday settled up by 2.51% at 14490 on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.66% to settled at 6369 while prices down -35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14040 and below same could see a test of 13950 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14235, a move above could see prices testing 14340.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13935-14895.

* Jeera gained on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure as there is pressure on the supply of new crops

*   In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year

*  Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

                

           

Cotton

yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 21780 tracking rise in overseas prices as traders awaited a federal report expected to show higher weekly exports of the natural fiber. The U.S. Agriculture Department's weekly crop progress report showed 8% of the total 2021 cotton crop was planted in the week ending April 11, slightly above the five-year average of 7%. The cotton area harvested and the cotton production in India have shown a significant rise in the MY (market year) 2019/20 as compared to the area harvested in MY 2018/19. The cotton area harvested, and the cotton production has increased by 5.56 per cent and 14.34 per cent to 13.30 million hectares and 29.50 million 480-lb bales respectively in MY 2019/20 over MY 2018/19. It is expected to increase in the upcoming MY 2020/21 with higher demand for cotton yarn and fabric for exports. It also triggered cotton fibre and yarn prices in the beginning of the year 2021. The purchase of cotton by the government of India under the MSP programme has been done in various states which has secured approximately more than 24.00 per cent of total production. The area harvested and production is expected to move up to 13.40 million hectares and 29.50 million 480-lb bales in the MY 2020/21. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -40 Rupees to end at 21920 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.46% to settled at 6407 while prices up 230 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21560 and below same could see a test of 21430 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21770, a move above could see prices testing 21850.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21440-22100.

*  Cotton prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices as traders awaited a federal report expected to show higher weekly exports of the natural fiber.

* USDA weekly crop progress report showed 8% of the total 2021 cotton crop was planted in the week ending April 11, slightly above the five-year average of 7%.

* The cotton area harvested and the cotton production in India have shown a significant rise in the MY (market year) 2019/20 as compared to the area harvested in MY 2018/19.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 120 Rupees to end at 22040 Rupees.

           

           

Chana

yesterday settled up by 2.8% at 5730 on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -22.75 Rupees to end at 5521 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.57% to settled at 132730 while prices down -37 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5516 and below same could see a test of 5457 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5645, a move above could see prices testing 5715.          

Trading Ideas:  

* Chana trading range for the day is 5513-5903.

* Chana prices gained on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories.

* Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states.

* The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in AP, Maharashtra, MP, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 131 Rupees to end at 5652 Rupees per 100 kgs.

           

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