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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee depreciated to the lowest level on Friday amid stronger dollar and higher crude oil prices. Further higher than expected trade deficit numbers in August weighed on the rupee to settle above the 83.00 mark. The August trade deficit numbers widened to $-24.2B against forecast of $-21B.

• USDINR is expected to face the hurdle near 83.30 and move back towards 83.00 amid softness in dollar. Further growing optimism of Fed pause in its next policy could restrict its upside. The probability of no hike in the next Fed policy remained steady at 99% mark. USDINR is expected to face stiff resistance near 83.30. Only a move above 83.30 would open the doors towards 83.50.

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro took a pause after declining to the lowest level in last 5-months amid retreat in the dollar. Further hawkish comments from the ECB president supported the recovery. The pair is expected to rise towards 1.07, as long as it holds the support of 1.0630. EURINR is likely to find support near 88.30 and move higher towards 89.00. Only a move above 89.00 would push the pair towards 89.50.

• The pound remained under pressure on Friday and slide below the 1.24 mark amid disappointing economic numbers in the region. The pair is expected to face the hurdle near 1.2450 and move towards 1.2330. However, expectation of 25 bps hike by the BOE in its next policy could limit its downside. GBPINR is expected to remain under pressure as long as it trades under 103.80. On the downside 102.80 holds key support.

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