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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee took a pause and settled near 83.1150 on Tuesday as strong dollar demand from the state-run banks erased its earlier gains. Earlier it appreciated, after the Bloomberg Index Services proposed including eligible Indian bonds in its emerging market local currency index from September.

• Rupee is likely to move in a tight range ahead of the key inflation numbers from US, which might give more clarity on the futures interest rate path. USDINR may find support near 83.00 and move higher towards 83.30 amid recovery in the dollar index and improved November US trade deficit numbers. However, strong flows into the domestic equities and bond markets would limit any major upside in the pair

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro fell on Tuesday by 0.17% amid strong dollar and weaker economic data from Eurozone. German Nov industrial production unexpectedly declines for the sixth month in a row, but improved unemployment rate in Eurozone provided some support to the pair. For today, EURUSD is likely to move lower towards 1.09 levels as long as it stays under 1.0965 amid firm dollar and weaker risk sentiments. EURINR may face the hurdle near 91.25 and move lower towards 90.80 levels

• Pound is likely to face the resistance near 1.2770 and lower towards 1.2670 amid strong dollar. Meanwhile, investors will focus on the speech from BOE Gov Bailey to get more clarity on the interest rate path. GBPINR is likely to face the hurdle near 106.10 and move south towards 105.50 level.

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