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USD/INR

Technical Outlook

* The US Dollar seems to be set for its biggest drop this year, backed by the fall in the Treasury yields and a boost in the odds of a rate cut after the FED policy on Wednesday. The USDINR has been facing selloff around the 83.55 handle. On Friday, the pair opened on a negative note following the global cues and tested a low of 83.3450.

* The price action suggests that the broader consolidation range for the pair could be between 83.60 on the upside and 83.20 on the downside. The 5-day moving average has hinged lower, but the overall positioning of the 5, 13, 21 day moving averages continue to be aligned for an up move.

* Notable strikes set to expire on Monday lie at 83.5250, 83.5325.

* Weekly stochastics remain in the overbought regime, while the daily oscillator suggests increasing bullish momentum.

* For the coming week, the USD/INR has risen in 60% of instances over the last decade; mean returns have been 0.28% with maximum and minimum returns of 1.61% and -0.71% respectively

Macro Commentary

* For the coming week, we have the consumer confidence numbers, which the traders will be watching very closely.

EUR/INR

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD has been inching higher as the Dollar weakens after the increased expectations of a rate cut. On Friday, the pair managed to test a high of 1.08. Consequently, pushing the EURINR higher above the 89.60 (consolidation resistance)

Technical hurdles for the pair lie near the 90.00 - 90.20 area, while supports are placed at 89.00 to 88.60. The short-term moving averages seem to be aligned for an up move with the pair currently placed above the 21 Day EMA.

The Weekly stochastic oscillator is suggesting increasing bearish momentum, while on the daily time frame it has entered the overbought territory

For the coming week, the pair has fallen in 60% of instances over the last decade; mean returns have been -0.25% with maximum and minimum returns of 1.90% and -2.33% respectively

Macro Commentary:

This week, we do not have any major data releases from the Bloc, so we might see the Euro majorly react to the movement in the Dollar

GBP/INR

Technical Outlook

The softening of the Dollar, and the general tilt towards the riskier assets has been pushing the cable higher, on Friday the pair GBPUSD pair tested a high of 1.263, consequently pushing the GBPINR pair higher towards the 105.00 handle. As per a Bloomberg report the Pound has been the best performing G10 currency this year.

Supports for the GBP/INR could come between 104.20-104.30 (the short-term moving averages cluster). Followed by 103.80. The immediate hurdle for the pair is placed near the 105.50.

Significant expirations for the GBP/USD options that are coming due next week lie at strikes of 1.225 and 1.25

The daily stochastic oscillator on the daily time frame has formed a bearish crossover in the overbought regime, the 20 period Z-score of the difference between the 8, and the 21-day moving average is also inching closer to the overbought territory.

Macro Commentary:

In the upcoming week, we have the BoE policy, and the general expectation is that the central bank will keep the policy rate unchanged.

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