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Nifty :24750

Technical Outlook

Week that was…

• Equity benchmark relatively underperformed its global peers as Nifty dropped 0.5% for the week compared to Dow Jones which gained 1.5%. Consequently, Nifty settled the week at 24750. Meanwhile, broader market endured its outperformance by gaining 1% supported by traction in Capital Goods, PSU Bank and energy sectors. The weekly price action formed a small bear candle, indicating extended breather

Technical Outlook:

• Going ahead, we expect prolongation of consolidation in the broader range of 25100-24500 amid positive bias wherein stock specific action would prevail. The past two weeks healthy consolidation while sustaining above 20 days moving average depicts inherent strength. In addition to that, formation of higher peak and trough backed by improving market breadth makes us believe, index would eventually resolve above upper band of consolidation and head towards 25500 in the month of June.

• Further, we expect volatility to subside gradually as we approached the fag end of earning season and focus will now shift towards upcoming RBI’s Policy (to be released on next Friday). Consequently, rate sensitives like financials, auto, realty would be in focus.

• Key thing to highlight is that, the index has staged a strong 15% rally from April lows. Post that, Nifty has been consolidating over past two weeks wherein it corrected 3%. The elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracement is a is key ingredient of a structural bull market. Hence, we believe ongoing consolidation would set the stage for next leg of up move towards 25500 wherein strong support is placed at 24200

• On the broader market front, the ratio chart of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 has staged a strong rebound after finding support from multi years range breakout area. The rising ratio line highlights relative outperformance of the broader market compared to large caps. Meanwhile sector rotation underpinned by improvement in market breadth augurs well for durability of ongoing optimism in the midcap and small cap space

• Key monitorable which would validate our positive bias going ahead: a. GDP data b. RBI's commentary on rate cut c. Persistent FII's inflow d. Further weakness in US Dollar index and Brent crude oil prices e. Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US

Nifty Bank : 55750

Technical Outlook

Week that was :

The Bank Nifty opened o n a positive note and settled at 55746 , up 0 . 6 % . The Nifty Private Bank index remained outlier as it gained 0 .87 % to conclude the session at 27741 .

Technical Outlook :

• The bank nifty opened on a flat note and inched southward in the first half of the session and rebounded after taking support near Tuesdays low and made a strong recovery in last hour of trade . Consequently, settled a session on a positive note . The daily price action formed a strong bull candle with long lower shadow indicating buying demand at lower levels above 20 -day EMA .

• The Bank nifty index has been undergoing healthy retracement over past six weeks . The shallow retracement after 14 % rally seen during April signifies that the higher base has been set for the next leg of up move towards 57000 in the coming months, as it is the external retracement of the fall from 56 ,098 –53 ,483 . Meanwhile, strong support is placed at 54 ,000 , which is the 80 % retracement of the recent up -move (53 ,483 –55 ,499 ) and coincides with the gap area witnessed on 12th May (54,055–54,442). Hence, any decline from hereon would offer incremental buying opportunity

• Structurally, the Bank Nifty is witnessing elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracements, which signifies a robust price structure . The recent up -move of 14 % is larger compared to the previous month’s 9 % rise . Additionally, the declines are getting shallower, with the recent one being 4.6% versus 5.4% in March 2025. Furthermore, the index broke out of an eight -month falling trendline and surpassed its lifetime high, highlighting a robust structure .

• The Private BANK index out performed the benchmark and closed on the upper band of the seven days range . Further, follow through strength above 27800 level will open the gate towards 28600 . Meanwhile, immediate support on the downside is placed at 27380 , being the placement of 20 - day EMA .

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