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Nifty

Nifty futures has rolled at around 70% vs 79% which is lesser with respect to the previous series. The Open Interest for the new contract is lower by around 18 lakhs w.r.t the last month contract implying lesser Short Positions. A combination of both Long & Short rolls was seen in April series. For April futures with an average price of around 22350 which becomes a pivot for the month. Till the time Nifty trades above 21,900-22,000 on spot, the index is in a Buy on Dips mode for the first weekly expiry. We expect the Nifty to find strong support at 21,900- 22,000 levels for Apr series. On spot basis 21900-22600 might be the range for Nifty for first fortnight of April series. FIIs Long ratio is now at 45% vs 35% previously in Index futures implying lesser hedged positions into the April series. The IVs for options have declined marginally now at 14% vs 15% implying lesser swing in April series

Bank Nifty

Banknifty futures rolled at 87% vs 74%, higher than the previous month. Banknifty futures have seen huge addition open interest of around 25 lakh w.r.t. the last month. This might be because of the more positions in Banknifty during the March expiry. Like we mentioned previously, Banknifty had traded in tandem with Nifty in the March, we believe the Index has the potential to Out-perform the benchmark in the April series. For this series, ratio wise (Banknifty/Nifty) has a resistance at 2.20 and support at 2.05. The ratio between Banknifty and Nifty currently at around 2.11. The major support for Banknifty would be around 45,800 levels. We expect Banknifty to be in 46,000-48,500 levels for the first fortnight of April series.

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