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Gap-Up Opening Seen For Nifty Today

Trends in the GIFT Nifty index futures for November delivery, which was trading at 25,970 at 7:30 am, indicates a gap-up opening for Nifty today

Nifty Technical Outlook

On Tuesday, the Nifty opened with a gap-up and closed just below the 25,700 mark. The index faced early selling pressure, slipping to an intraday low of 25,450 (September high) before rebounding nearly 250 points. Out of the 50 Nifty stocks, 40 ended higher. IndiGo led the gainers, rising over 3% after strong air traffic data, while Mahindra & Mahindra gained 3% on robust auto sales. On the flip side, Bajaj Finance slumped 7% after cutting its AUM growth guidance, pulling Bajaj Finserv down 6%. Sectorally, IT, auto, and metal indices led the gains, while PSU banks, realty, and financial services ended slightly lower. The Nifty surged 120.60 points closing at 25,694.95. The Nifty formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart, but selling pressure is expected at higher levels. The volatility index IndiaVIX has closed above 12 and we expect the volatility to increase in the short term. The Nifty short-term trend remains bearish and the trend will turn bullish only above 25,800 levels. The 9-day simple moving average is placed at 25,698.46.

Domestic & Global Indices

After Monday’s rally, U.S. markets moved mixed on Tuesday. The Dow extended gains and the S&P 500 rebounded, while the Nasdaq slipped amid renewed concerns of a tech bubble and valuation worries. Optimism over a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown supported sentiment, but uncertainty about the market’s near-term outlook persisted. The Dow index moved up by 559 points to close at 47,927.96 and the S&P 500 index moved up by 14 points to close at 6,846.61.

Derivatives Watch

* Based on Open Interest in Futures, FII’s have decreased their long position by 428 contracts and have increased their short position by 2695 contracts. FII's are net bearish by 3123 contracts.

* Based on Open Interest in Options, FII's were net bullish by 40209 contracts. In Nifty, the highest PUT OI was seen at 25600 and the highest CALL Open Interest was seen at 25800 strike.

* Based on Open Interest, we are bullish on Vodafone Idea, Bharat Forge, HFCL, BHEL, Indigo, IndusInd Bank, National Aluminium, Adani Energy Solutions, Persistent and Solar Industries. We are bearish on Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Britannia, AU Bank, Voltas, Divis Labs, L&T Finance, Nuvama, Bosch Ltd and Sammaan Capital.

Economy & Stocks to Watch

* Bihar election Exit poll: According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll, the NDA is projected to secure 140 to 150 seats, comfortably crossing the halfway mark. The MGB alliance is likely to win 85 to 95 seats, emerging as a strong but distant second. In the first phase, which covered 121 constituencies, the NDA is estimated to have won 60 to 70 seats, while the MGB is projected to secure 45 to 55 seats, the survey indicates. Smaller players are likely to have a limited impact. JSP is estimated to win 0–5 seats, while Others could bag 5–10 seats, making them marginal contributors to the overall tally. Most polls project the NDA comfortably crossing the halfway mark, with seat estimates ranging from 130 to 167.

* BSE Ltd announced its consolidated results for the quarter ended September 30 2025, posting a net profit of Rs.558 crore, up 61 % from Rs.347 crore a year earlier. Revenue rose 44% to Rs.1,068 crore, compared with Rs.741 crore in Q2 FY25. EBITDA surged 78% to Rs.691 crore, with the margin expanding to 64.7% from 52.4% in the prior year. Key growth drivers cited include trading segments, mutual-fund platforms and platform services. The jump reflects stronger transaction fee income and corporate-services contributions, marking a robust quarter for the exchange.

* EIH Ltd, the parent company of the Oberoi Group, reported a 12.4% year-on-year decline in its net profit for the September quarter at Rs.113.7 crore, compared to Rs.129.8 crore in the same period last year. In the preceding quarter ended June 2025, the company had posted a 63% decline in net profit compared to a year earlier. The hospitality firm’s revenue from operations rose marginally by 1.5% to Rs.597.9 crore from Rs.589 crore a year earlier, indicating steady business performance despite softer earnings. Operating performance weakened during the quarter as earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped 11.8% to Rs.154.2 crore from Rs.174.7 crore last year.

* Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) reported a 19.7% year-on-year decline in its net profit for the September quarter at Rs.230.3 crore, compared to Rs.286.9 crore in the same period last year. The company’s revenue from operations rose 5.5% to Rs.5,123 crore from Rs.4,855 crore a year ago. However, operating performance weakened, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) falling 20.3% to Rs.216.9 crore from Rs.272 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. EBITDA margin contracted to 4.2% from 5.6% a year earlier, reflecting cost pressures and reduced profitability despite higher revenue.

* The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), Mumbai Bench, has approved Hindustan Unilever Ltd’s (HUL) scheme of arrangement to demerge its ice cream business into a new entity, Kwality Wall’s (India) Ltd. Under the approved scheme, shareholders of HUL will receive one equity share of Rs.1 each in Kwality Wall’s (India) Ltd for every share held in HUL, in a 1:1 ratio. The tribunal noted that the demerger would allow both companies to sharpen strategic focus and unlock shareholder value, creating an independent, listed ice cream company that manages brands such as Kwality Wall’s, Cornetto, and Magnum.

* Max Financial Services reported a steep 96% year-on-year decline in net profit at Rs.4.1 crore for Q2 FY26, compared to Rs.113 crore in the same quarter last year. The drop was largely due to lower earnings from its life insurance arm, Axis Max Life. Net interest income (NII) grew 13.9% YoY to Rs.131 crore from Rs.115 crore, even as the life insurance segment revenue fell to Rs.9,790.7 crore from Rs.13,370.5 crore a year ago. The segment’s profit also declined sharply to Rs.23.7 crore from Rs.170.8 crore. Commenting on the performance, Sumit Madan, CEO and Managing Director of Axis Max Life, said the company continues to see strong momentum in Individual Adjusted First Year Premium and Value of New Business.

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