IGI Logo

Daily Market Commentary for April 21st 2026 By Siddhartha Khemka - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Indian equities are expected to continue their gradual upmove, supported by improving macros, easing crude, and strong Q4 earnings momentum. With the ceasefire deadline arriving tomorrow, all eyes turn to the second round of US–Iran talks — while markets remain hopeful of progress, elevated tensions and uncertain participation make any negative surprise a key downside risk. FII flow trajectory remains equally important, with Monday's selling after three consecutive days of buying a reminder that foreign flow reversal is not yet a done deal. Markets had a strong session on Tuesday, with the Nifty gaining +0.9%, supported by improving global sentiment, strong Q4 corporate earnings, easing crude, and a meaningful pullback in volatility. Broader markets outperformed — Midcap100 up 0.5% and Smallcap100 up 0.9% — with broad-based buying and healthy market breadth witnessed across the board. All sectoral indices ended in the green, with FMCG (+2.6%), Realty (+2.1%), Private Banks (+1.5%) leading. The India VIX eased ~6% to 17.53 after the recent spike, and Brent crude declined toward USD 94–95/barrel on expectations of renewed US–Iran talks — both supportive factors for the session. On the sectoral side, the T&D segment continues to benefit from a strong capex cycle backed by ~Rs.9 trillion under the National Electricity Plan (FY23–32), with global supply constraints opening export avenues and demand visibility intact despite a moderation in FY26 ordering. On the macro front, India–US trade negotiations are progressing, with a delegation in Washington from April 20–22 to advance the first phase of the bilateral trade agreement — both sides have indicated only a few issues remain unresolved, and expectations of a formal announcement are building. Additionally, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's three-day visit to Germany (April 21–23) is also progressing well, with India and Germany in advanced negotiations for a Rs.70,000–99,000 crore deal to build six next-generation stealth submarines. On the institutional front, FIIs turned net sellers at Rs.1,060 crore on Monday after three consecutive sessions of buying — worth watching closely. Key data points due include US Retail Sales today and UK CPI along with RBI MPC Minutes tomorrow. Key results tomorrow — SBI Life, Trent, Tech Mahindra, Havells, and Oracle — will drive stock-specific action

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer