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The Day That Was:

Nifty Futures: 23,699.35 (1.4%), Bank Nifty Futures: 51,753.9 (2.3%).

pecially in heavyweight financial stocks. Overall, the market rose, with significant contributions from banking and technology, while investors remained alert to developments in U.S. trade policy. Bank Nifty futures rose by 1,160 points amid speculation of a potential RBI rate cut post the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The Indian rupee closed at 85.6350 per U.S. dollar, recovering all of its 2025 losses and reaching its highest level since December 30, 2024. This recovery was driven by foreign bank dollar sales, $3 billion in bond inflows, fresh foreign capital inflows, and a weak U.S. dollar. Nifty futures premium increased to 41 points from 29, while that on the Bank Nifty rose from 0 to 49 points.

 

Global Movers:
US stocks jumped yesterday, on optimism that targeted tariffs from the Trump administration will be more contained. The S&P rose 1.8%, while the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow rallied 2.2% and 1.4% respectively. The Equal weighted S&P erased all of its losses for the year. Expectations are that the tariff-related announcements coming on Apr 2 are likely to target countries than specific sectors, and that's fanned investor optimism recently. Meanwhile, several strategists on Wall Street are of the view that the worst of the recent volatility is behind us. Coming to markets, the VIX dropped for the fourth day and finished below 18, the dollar and the 10-year treasury yield rose, bitcoin advanced 3.2%, Gold fell for the third straight session but was still above $3000/ounce while oil held gains near $70 as President Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on nations purchasing Venezuelan oil.

Stock Futures:
During yesterday's session, stocks such as IREDA, Hindustan Aeronautics, Jindal Stainless Limited, and Titan Company experienced increased trading volumes and price movements, suggesting a surge in investor interest and robust momentum.

IREDA witnessed a significant price surge, climbing 8.4% to a monthly peak, driven by record seven-month trading volumes, fueled by its successful Rs.1,247 crore perpetual bond issuance at an 8.40% coupon. This capital structure optimisation strategy, coupled with a Rs.24.48 crore tax refund and pending Rs.195 crore appeal, strengthened investor sentiment. However, a 2.6% contraction in open interest, representing the most significant single-day decline in the series, accompanied by a short covering of 10.7 lakh shares, indicates a substantial short squeeze. The confluence of a robust price rally and a decline in open interest suggests a potential for sustained upward momentum based on prevailing market dynamics and news flow.

Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) shares surged 6.1%, reaching a two-month high and marking their most substantial single-day percentage gains since early June 2024, driven by record monthly trading volumes. This rally was triggered by Jefferies' reiterated 'Buy' rating despite acknowledged execution delays in the Rs.45,700 crore LCA Tejas Mk1A order due to GE Aerospace engine delivery postponements. While deliveries are now projected to commence in March or April 2025, with complete execution from Q1 FY26, the stock has witnessed a 2.3% expansion in open interest, representing a long build-up of 190,000 shares. Notably, the current expiry period has seen a 33% price appreciation, accompanied by a 13.5 lakh-share reduction in open interest, highlighting significant short covering. This convergence of strong price action accelerated short covering, and unprecedented trading volume signals a firm bullish conviction, suggesting a high probability of continued near-term price appreciation.

Jindal Stainless Limited (JSL) shares plummeted 5.2% for the second consecutive session, nearing monthly lows and hitting a twelve-session low close, triggered by a domestic brokerage's target price reduction due to anticipated near-term earnings headwinds from weakened exports and increased imports. Despite maintaining a 'buy' rating based on robust long-term growth prospects, the stock witnessed a dramatic 15% surge in open interest, adding 940,000 shares and driving futures open interest to a three-month peak. This coincided with record yearly highs in both call and put option open interest. Over two sessions, futures open interest ballooned by 39%, representing a 2 million share increase, alongside a 9.7% price decline. This confluence of a substantial open interest expansion and a sharp price contraction unequivocally signals a significant accumulation of new short positions, reflecting a pronounced escalation in bearish sentiment.

Titan Company shares experienced a 2.8% price decline, accompanied by a 1.8% expansion in open interest, representing an addition of 220,000 shares, signalling a short build-up. This bearish movement was triggered by a domestic brokerage's advisory, highlighting potential deceleration in Q4 growth momentum based on channel checks indicating a softening revenue growth trajectory for Tanishq in February and March. This development raises doubts about the company's ability to meet its projected Q4 growth targets. The concurrent price contraction and increase in open interest solidify a bearish market stance. However, a continued price depreciation, coupled with escalating open interest, would reinforce investor conviction in the anticipated adverse effects of the observed slowdown in revenue growth.

Put-Call Ratio Snapshot:
The Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) rose to 1.22 from 1.15 points, while the Bank Nifty PCR fell from 1.26 to 1.24 points.

Implied Volatility:
Titagarh Rail Systems and BSE Ltd have experienced notable fluctuations in their stock prices, as evidenced by their high implied volatility ratings of 100 each. Currently, their implied volatilities stand at 60% and 66%, indicating that the rise in implied volatility makes options for these stocks more expensive. As a result, traders may adopt hedging strategies to reduce the risks linked with price volatility. In contrast, Adani Ports and Cipla Ltd have recorded the lowest implied volatility ratings of 10 and 11, respectively, with their implied volatilities (IVs) at 31% and 23%. This decrease in volatility suggests that their options are comparatively more appealing, offering a favourable opportunity for traders looking to take long positions.

Options volume and Open Interest highlights:
NCC Ltd and Computer Age Management Services have garnered considerable interest from traders, demonstrated by their notable call-to-put volume ratios of 5:1 and 4:1, respectively, which suggest a generally optimistic market sentiment. However, these ratios might also reflect a range of divergent viewpoints among investors. In contrast, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and MCX Ltd are experiencing a rise in put option volumes compared to call options, indicating increased anxiety regarding potential market declines. In terms of positioning, Jindal Stainless and Hindustan Aeronautics exhibit the highest open interest across both call and put options. Additionally, in the realm of call options, IREDA leads the pack, whereas MCX Ltd ranks first in put options, hinting at a greater likelihood of future price movements. (This data considers only those stock options that saw a minimum of 500 contracts traded on the day for both calls and puts).

Participant-wise Open Interest Net Activity:
In index futures, a substantial net reduction of 8,519 contracts by clients signals a pronounced bearish inclination. Conversely, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and proprietary traders exhibited notable accumulation, adding 1,219 and 11,871 contracts, respectively, indicating a distinct bullish bias. In stark contrast, stock futures witnessed a massive divestment of 26,662 contracts by clients, further solidifying their prevailing pessimistic outlook. While FIIs continued their aggressive expansion with a 13,495-contract addition, proprietary traders underwent a considerable contraction, reducing their positions by 11,375 contracts, thereby reflecting a shifting, albeit cautious, stance.

Securities in Ban for Trade Date 25-March-2025:
1) INDUSINDBK Nifty futures opened strongly on Monday and continued to build on the gains seen over the last six consecutive sessions, settling 320 points higher despite last-hour selling tempering some of the intraday gains. Nifty reversed its year-to-date losses as foreign investors shifted from sellers to buyers, capitalizing on bargain-hunting opportunities, especially in heavyweight financial stocks. Overall, the market rose, with significant contributions from banking and technology, while investors remained alert to developments in U.S. trade policy. Bank Nifty futures rose by 1,160 points amid speculation of a potential RBI rate cut post the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The Indian rupee closed at 85.6350 per U.S. dollar, recovering all of its 2025 losses and reaching its highest level since December 30, 2024. This recovery was driven by foreign bank dollar sales, $3 billion in bond inflows, fresh foreign capital inflows, and a weak U.S. dollar. Nifty futures premium increased to 41 points from 29, while that on the Bank Nifty rose from 0 to 49 points.

Global Movers:
US stocks jumped yesterday, on optimism that targeted tariffs from the Trump administration will be more contained. The S&P rose 1.8%, while the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow rallied 2.2% and 1.4% respectively. The Equal weighted S&P erased all of its losses for the year. Expectations are that the tariff-related announcements coming on Apr 2 are likely to target countries than specific sectors, and that's fanned investor optimism recently. Meanwhile, several strategists on Wall Street are of the view that the worst of the recent volatility is behind us. Coming to markets, the VIX dropped for the fourth day and finished below 18, the dollar and the 10-year treasury yield rose, bitcoin advanced 3.2%, Gold fell for the third straight session but was still above $3000/ounce while oil held gains near $70 as President Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on nations purchasing Venezuelan oil.

Stock Futures:
During yesterday's session, stocks such as IREDA, Hindustan Aeronautics, Jindal Stainless Limited, and Titan Company experienced increased trading volumes and price movements, suggesting a surge in investor interest and robust momentum.

IREDA witnessed a significant price surge, climbing 8.4% to a monthly peak, driven by record seven-month trading volumes, fueled by its successful Rs.1,247 crore perpetual bond issuance at an 8.40% coupon. This capital structure optimisation strategy, coupled with a Rs.24.48 crore tax refund and pending Rs.195 crore appeal, strengthened investor sentiment. However, a 2.6% contraction in open interest, representing the most significant single-day decline in the series, accompanied by a short covering of 10.7 lakh shares, indicates a substantial short squeeze. The confluence of a robust price rally and a decline in open interest suggests a potential for sustained upward momentum based on prevailing market dynamics and news flow.

Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) shares surged 6.1%, reaching a two-month high and marking their most substantial single-day percentage gains since early June 2024, driven by record monthly trading volumes. This rally was triggered by Jefferies' reiterated 'Buy' rating despite acknowledged execution delays in the Rs.45,700 crore LCA Tejas Mk1A order due to GE Aerospace engine delivery postponements. While deliveries are now projected to commence in March or April 2025, with complete execution from Q1 FY26, the stock has witnessed a 2.3% expansion in open interest, representing a long build-up of 190,000 shares. Notably, the current expiry period has seen a 33% price appreciation, accompanied by a 13.5 lakh-share reduction in open interest, highlighting significant short covering. This convergence of strong price action accelerated short covering, and unprecedented trading volume signals a firm bullish conviction, suggesting a high probability of continued near-term price appreciation.

Jindal Stainless Limited (JSL) shares plummeted 5.2% for the second consecutive session, nearing monthly lows and hitting a twelve-session low close, triggered by a domestic brokerage's target price reduction due to anticipated near-term earnings headwinds from weakened exports and increased imports. Despite maintaining a 'buy' rating based on robust long-term growth prospects, the stock witnessed a dramatic 15% surge in open interest, adding 940,000 shares and driving futures open interest to a three-month peak. This coincided with record yearly highs in both call and put option open interest. Over two sessions, futures open interest ballooned by 39%, representing a 2 million share increase, alongside a 9.7% price decline. This confluence of a substantial open interest expansion and a sharp price contraction unequivocally signals a significant accumulation of new short positions, reflecting a pronounced escalation in bearish sentiment.

Titan Company shares experienced a 2.8% price decline, accompanied by a 1.8% expansion in open interest, representing an addition of 220,000 shares, signalling a short build-up. This bearish movement was triggered by a domestic brokerage's advisory, highlighting potential deceleration in Q4 growth momentum based on channel checks indicating a softening revenue growth trajectory for Tanishq in February and March. This development raises doubts about the company's ability to meet its projected Q4 growth targets. The concurrent price contraction and increase in open interest solidify a bearish market stance. However, a continued price depreciation, coupled with escalating open interest, would reinforce investor conviction in the anticipated adverse effects of the observed slowdown in revenue growth.

Put-Call Ratio Snapshot:
The Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) rose to 1.22 from 1.15 points, while the Bank Nifty PCR fell from 1.26 to 1.24 points.

Implied Volatility:
Titagarh Rail Systems and BSE Ltd have experienced notable fluctuations in their stock prices, as evidenced by their high implied volatility ratings of 100 each. Currently, their implied volatilities stand at 60% and 66%, indicating that the rise in implied volatility makes options for these stocks more expensive. As a result, traders may adopt hedging strategies to reduce the risks linked with price volatility. In contrast, Adani Ports and Cipla Ltd have recorded the lowest implied volatility ratings of 10 and 11, respectively, with their implied volatilities (IVs) at 31% and 23%. This decrease in volatility suggests that their options are comparatively more appealing, offering a favourable opportunity for traders looking to take long positions.

Options volume and Open Interest highlights:
NCC Ltd and Computer Age Management Services have garnered considerable interest from traders, demonstrated by their notable call-to-put volume ratios of 5:1 and 4:1, respectively, which suggest a generally optimistic market sentiment. However, these ratios might also reflect a range of divergent viewpoints among investors. In contrast, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and MCX Ltd are experiencing a rise in put option volumes compared to call options, indicating increased anxiety regarding potential market declines. In terms of positioning, Jindal Stainless and Hindustan Aeronautics exhibit the highest open interest across both call and put options. Additionally, in the realm of call options, IREDA leads the pack, whereas MCX Ltd ranks first in put options, hinting at a greater likelihood of future price movements. (This data considers only those stock options that saw a minimum of 500 contracts traded on the day for both calls and puts).

Participant-wise Open Interest Net Activity:
In index futures, a substantial net reduction of 8,519 contracts by clients signals a pronounced bearish inclination. Conversely, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and proprietary traders exhibited notable accumulation, adding 1,219 and 11,871 contracts, respectively, indicating a distinct bullish bias. In stark contrast, stock futures witnessed a massive divestment of 26,662 contracts by clients, further solidifying their prevailing pessimistic outlook. While FIIs continued their aggressive expansion with a 13,495-contract addition, proprietary traders underwent a considerable contraction, reducing their positions by 11,375 contracts, thereby reflecting a shifting, albeit cautious, stance.

Securities in Ban for Trade Date 25-March-2025:
1) INDUSINDBK 

Nifty

Bank Nifty

Stocks with High IVR:

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Stocks with Low IVR:

Stocks With High IVP:

Stocks With Low IVP:

Stocks With High Call Volume To Put Volume

Stocks With High Put Volume To Call Volume

Call Open Interest Relative to Record High

Put Open Interest Relative to Record High

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