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Gold prices experienced a marginal decline of -0.27%, settling at 62640, as the dollar index strengthened to 103.3. The Euro's fall, triggered by lower-than-expected inflation figures for the Euro Area, contributed to the dollar's gain. The Gold market received support from recent statements by Federal Reserve officials, indicating a potential halt in interest rate hikes. Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted at a forthcoming rate cut, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledged progress in achieving the 2% inflation target. Market sentiment now reflects expectations of a cumulative 100 basis points rate cut by the Fed in 2024, reinforcing the decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields. The second estimate of the U.S. GDP revealed a 5.2% annualized growth rate in Q3, exceeding the initial 4.9% report. Asian gold hubs experienced some selling, with individuals capitalizing on relatively high prices. Lackluster demand during the Indian wedding season led to dealers offering steeper discounts, reaching up to $6 per ounce over official domestic prices. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong declined by approximately 23% in October compared to the previous month. Net imports, a crucial indicator for the world's top gold consumer, stood at 26.793 metric tons in October, down from 34.757 tons in September. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with a 0.79% increase in open interest, settling at 17259. Gold finds support at 62500, and a breach below could test 62360 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 62810, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 62980.
Trading Ideas:

Gold 

* Gold trading range for the day is 62360-62980.
* Gold dropped as dollar index strengthened to 103.3 after inflation figures for Euro Area came below forecasts.
* The recent remarks from several Federal Reserve officials suggested that the central bank may be done raising interest rates
* Fed’s Waller flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead and Fed’s Mester saw clear progress in getting inflation to 2%.

Silver

Silver prices saw a modest increase of 0.31%, settling at 77515, driven by optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the first half of the coming year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments suggested that current monetary settings are restrictive enough, raising expectations of a rate cut. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also acknowledged significant progress on inflation. While the U.S. GDP expanded by 5.2% in Q3, exceeding earlier estimates and demonstrating robust growth, concerns about disinflation and signs of strain in the labor market and manufacturing sector prompted the market to anticipate rate cuts. This shift in expectations led to a nearly 60bps plunge in the yield on the 10-year note in November. Simultaneously, worries about the supply of industrial silver, coupled with strong demand, contributed to the upward movement in prices. The Silver Institute projected a 2% decline in global mined silver production in 2023, primarily attributed to lower output from key producers Mexico and Peru. The market also witnessed increased investment in solar panels, power grids, and 5G networks, fueling predictions of an 8%-10% rise in silver demand. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with a notable 8.52% increase in open interest, settling at 22570. Silver finds support at 77195, and a breach below may lead to a test of 76870 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 77715, and a move above could potentially push prices to test 77910.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 76870-77910.
* Silver steadied on hopes that Fed would likely cut interest rates by the first half of next year.
* Fed’s Waller said that current monetary settings are restrictive enough, and flagged a possible rate cut in the coming months.
* New estimates showed that the US GDP expanded by 5.2% from the earlier quarter in Q3, above earlier estimates


Crude oil

Crude oil prices retreated by 1.25%, settling at 6407, following OPEC+'s announcement of an additional daily oil supply cut of 1 million barrels, which fell short of market expectations. The agreement, in line with Saudi Arabia's voluntary production reduction extension, aims to address oversupply concerns and internal disputes over production quotas. However, uncertainties remain regarding the specific allocation of cuts among members and the impact of Russia's 300,000 barrel-a-day export reduction. The oil market faces challenges amid a challenging economic environment, contributing to recent weakness. OPEC+ members may reconvene before year-end, with Algeria already agreeing to an additional cut of 50,000 barrels per day for January. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a rise in U.S. weekly crude stocks into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, marking the first increase since September. Additionally, East Coast crude stockpiles reached 10.18 million barrels, the highest since January 2021. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a 8.76% drop in open interest, settling at 10212. Crude oil finds support at 6242, and a breach below may test 6077 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 6608, with a move above potentially leading to prices testing 6809.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6077-6809.
* Crude oil prices tumbled as the quantum of output cuts announced by the group fell short of expectations.
* This decision aligns with Saudi Arabia's previously announced extension of its voluntary production reduction by the same amount.
* OPEC+ may meet again before year – end, Algeria minister says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 0.59%, settling at 234.9, driven by updated weather forecasts indicating less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks. Traders also noted that record natural gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states provided utilities with ample supply, reducing the need to draw extensively from storage to meet heating demand. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states increased to 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from the previous record of 104.2 bcfd in October. Although daily output was expected to dip, reaching a preliminary one-week low of 106.7 bcfd, traders cautioned that preliminary data often undergoes revisions later in the day. Meteorologists forecast a shift in weather conditions from colder than normal to warmer than normal between November 30 and December 12. Anticipating reduced cold weather, LSEG predicted a decline in U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, from 127.3 bcfd this week to 118.9 bcfd next week. These projections were lower than LSEG's outlook earlier in the week. In terms of U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, the average fell to 5.7 bcfd in November, down from 6.5 bcfd in October and a record 7.0 bcfd in August. From a technical standpoint, natural gas is undergoing long liquidation, with a 2.16% drop in open interest, settling at 42532. Support is identified at 231.4, and a breach below could test 227.9 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 238.8, and a move above could lead to prices testing 242.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 227.9-242.7.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Record output means U.S. utilities don't have to pull as much gas out of storage as usual to meet heating demand.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.7 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October.



Copper

Copper prices experienced a modest gain of 0.33%, settling at 722, driven by concerns over slowing manufacturing activities in China. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI for November 2023 slipped to 49.4, marking the second consecutive month of decline and falling below market forecasts. This decline underscored the need for additional government support to bolster economic growth in China. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI also dipped to 50.2, indicating the 11th straight month of expansion in the service sector but at the softest pace in the sequence. The Composite PMI Output Index edged down to 50.4, the lowest since December 2022, reflecting a contraction in factory activity for the second consecutive month. The challenges highlighted in the Chinese economy, coupled with a persistent struggle to maintain a robust post-pandemic recovery, raised expectations for further government stimulus. China has implemented measures such as increased bond sales for infrastructure investment and interest rate cuts to support economic activity. On the supply side, copper output in Chile declined by 4.4% year-on-year in October, reaching 464,311 metric tons, according to the country's INE statistics agency. In the technical landscape, copper is currently undergoing short covering, with a 0.61% drop in open interest, settling at 5221. Support is identified at 718.9, and a breach below could test 715.8 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 723.9, with a potential breakthrough leading to prices testing 725.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 715.8-725.8.
* Copper gains as slowing manufacturing activities in China raised hopes for more stimulus
* The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China inched down to 49.4 in November 2023 from 49.5 in October
* Chile's October copper output down 4.4%


Zinc

Zinc prices experienced a decline of -0.8%, settling at 222.9, primarily influenced by China's refined zinc output surpassing expectations. In October, China reported a refined zinc output of 604,600 metric tons, indicating a notable month-on-month growth of 11.14% and a substantial year-on-year increase of 17.6%. This unexpected surge in production contributed to the downward pressure on zinc prices. Despite the decline in prices, there is optimism in the market regarding potential support measures from China to bolster its economy. The global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 15,400 metric tons in September, a significant turnaround from the surplus of 28,000 tons in August, according to data from the ILZSG. However, during the first nine months of the year, the global surplus reached 475,000 tons, up from 47,000 tons in the same period the previous year. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses decreased by 12.1%, providing some support to prices. On the other hand, LME data revealed a substantial inflow of zinc into LME-approved warehouses, tripling in about a week to the highest levels in over two years. Additionally, some smelters in Yunnan received notifications about power rationing, potentially affecting zinc production. From a technical perspective, zinc market is currently under fresh selling pressure, with a 22.04% increase in open interest, settling at 3771. Support is identified at 222, and a breach below could test 220.9 levels. Resistance is anticipated at 224.7, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 226.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 220.9-226.3.
* Zinc dropped as China's refined zinc output in October, showed a growth of 11.14% MOM
* However, downside seen limited on hopes that China will extend support measures for its economy.
* The global zinc market swung to a deficit of 15,400 metric tons in September from a surplus of 28,000 tons in August


Aluminium

Aluminium prices experienced a decline of -0.64%, settling at 201.2, influenced by various factors in the global market. China, a significant player in the aluminium industry, reported a YoY increase of 6.7% in aluminium production for October 2023, reaching 3.641 million metric tons. This surge contributed to a global uptick in primary aluminium output, as data from the International Aluminium Institute revealed a 3.9% YoY rise to 6.116 million tonnes. China's aluminium trade dynamics presented a noteworthy shift, with imports rising by 173% YoY to 1.17 million metric tons in the January-October period. However, exports witnessed a decline of 41.19% YoY, resulting in a substantial increase in net imports to 1.06 million metric tons, marking a 347.33% YoY rise. In October alone, imports surged by 221.19% YoY and 7.9% MoM to 216,600 metric tons, while exports declined by 4.67% YoY and 91.29% MoM to 600 metric tons. Chinese regulators, including the People's Bank of China, are reportedly creating a "whitelist" for lending support to 50 property developers, indicating efforts to manage the property sector. In addition, smelters in Yunnan province initiated cuts totaling 1.15 million tons of capacity in response to power curbs expected to last until April. In the technical landscape, aluminium is currently undergoing fresh selling, with a 6.82% increase in open interest, settling at 3883. Support is identified at 200.5, and a breach below could test 199.7 levels. Conversely, resistance is expected at 202.5, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 203.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.7-203.7.
* Aluminium dropped as China's October 2023 aluminum production hit 3.641 million mt, up 6.7% YoY.
* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 3.9% year on year to 6.116 million tonnes
* Data showed that China imported 1.17 million mt of primary aluminum in January-October, up 173% YoY.


Cotton

Cotton prices, represented by Cottoncandy, saw a marginal decline of -0.17%, settling at 57200, driven by profit booking after recent gains. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised down its cotton production estimate for the 2023/2024 season to 29.4 million bales, citing damage in Haryana caused by pink bollworm infestation and farmers uprooting plants. Additionally, a significant anticipated decline of 25% in cotton production in north Maharashtra due to inadequate rainfall added pressure to the market. The USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report contributed to market dynamics by increasing the anticipated U.S. cotton production in 2023/24 by 273,000 bales. Despite slightly lower domestic mill use, higher production and ending stocks were reported, impacting the global cotton balance sheet. The final estimate of crop production for the 2022-23 season by the CAI was slightly higher at 31.8 million bales, compared to the government's third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales. This discrepancy highlights variations in estimates and underscores the challenges faced by the industry. In north Maharashtra, cotton production is expected to decline by 25% this year due to inadequate rainfall, affecting about 10 lakh hectares of land used for cultivation. The state agriculture department estimates that cotton production may fall to 15 lakh tonnes, signaling challenges in key cotton-producing regions. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with a 3.4% increase in open interest, settling at 152. Cottoncandy is currently finding support at 56860, and a breach below could test 56510 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 57520, with a breakthrough potentially leading to prices testing 57830.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56510-57830.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gains as CAI has revised down its cotton production estimate
* India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26715.9 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.


Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a decline of -0.88%, settling at 12796, driven by slower buying activities in anticipation of stock releases ahead of the commencement of new crops in January 2024. The pressure on prices is further attributed to the improved crop condition resulting from favorable weather conditions. However, the downside appears limited due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's unfavorable weather conditions. Concerns have emerged among farmers in Maharashtra over the location of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana, but the impact on prices seems constrained. The crop condition is reported to be satisfactory, with harvesting expected during January to March. The IMD's projection of drier-than-average conditions in October may impact crop growth, adding an element of uncertainty to market dynamics. Despite the current slower buying activity, decreasing supplies and improved export opportunities provide support for price stability. Turmeric exports during April-September 2023 witnessed a rise of 4.14%, totaling 92,025.16 tonnes compared to 88,367.77 tonnes in the same period of 2022. However, in September 2023, around 9,085.81 tonnes of turmeric were exported, reflecting a drop of 19.75% compared to August 2023 and a significant decline of 35.06% compared to September 2022. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -2.81% drop in open interest, settling at 11,080. Turmeric is currently finding support at 12592, and a breach below could test 12390 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 12994, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 13194.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12390-13194.
* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower in expectation of release of stocks
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13663.15 Rupees gained by 1.95 percent.


Jeera

Jeera prices experienced a substantial decline of -2.81%, settling at 44610, driven by favorable weather conditions supporting adequate soil moisture, which is expected to boost overall sowing activities. However, the downside seems limited as stockists are showing interest in buying amid the recent price downfall. In Gujarat, cumin sowing has witnessed a remarkable growth of nearly 116%, with the sown area reported at 244,639.00 hectares as of 28th November 2023, compared to 113,109.00 hectares in the same period of 2022. This surge in sowing activities may potentially impact future supplies, contributing to the market's complexity. Global demand for Indian jeera has slumped, with buyers preferring other destinations like Syria and Turkey due to the higher prices of jeera in India. Export activity is expected to remain subdued in the upcoming months as per the export seasonality, and the competitiveness of Indian jeera prices in the global market has not been favorable, further dampening overseas demand. In September 2023, around 7,190.83 tonnes of jeera were exported, reflecting a drop of 11.02% compared to August 2023 and a significant decline of 60.27% compared to September 2022. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -5.37% drop in open interest, settling at 2,907. Jeera is currently finding support at 44040, and a breach below could test 43480 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 45530, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 46460.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 43480-46460.
* Jeera dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 45969.6 Rupees dropped by -0.52 percent.