Crudeoil Report As On 04 nd Mar 2026 By Amit Gupta - Kedia Advisory
Price Performance
Highlights
* Brent Crude Surges 17% to $82.66: Prices hit year-highs as Middle East airstrikes trigger massive geopolitical risk premiums.
* Futures Rally 15% Weekly: WTI and MCX Crude oil rallied over 15% in a week amid fears of Persian Gulf supply route disruptions.
* US-Iran War Disrupts Global Trade: Joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran trigger retaliatory missile barrages.
* Strait of Hormuz Effective Closure: Iran's IRGC halts shipping through the chokepoint, risking 20 million barrels of daily global supply.
* Iraq Slashes Output by 1.5M BPD: Export infrastructure constraints and full storage force massive production cuts in Baghdad.
* OPEC+ Restores 206,000 BPD for April: The bloc initiates a phased unwinding of voluntary cuts despite high price volatility.
* China’s ZPC Refinery Cuts Runs 20%: Major refiners reduce throughput as Iranian supply tightening impacts Asian processing margins.
* EIA Projects 2026 Brent Average $58: Long-term bearish forecast remains due to expected inventory builds surpassing global demand.
* US Crude Stocks Below 5-Year Average: Commercial inventories sit 2.5% lower, tightening the domestic physical market balance.
* US Production Hits 13.7M BPD: Domestic output nears record highs, providing a critical buffer against overseas supply shocks.
* IEA Forecasts 850,000 BPD Demand Growth: Non-OECD nations drive 2026 consumption, though high prices slow overall momentum.
* Supertanker Freight Rates Hit 6-Year High: Rising transport costs on Middle East-to-Asia routes pressure global refining profitability.
* China Maintains 1M BPD SPR Build: Aggressive strategic stockpiling continues to provide a firm floor for global oil prices.
* Venezuela Exports Plunge to 300,000 BPD: Intensified U.S. tanker blockades cause significant heavy sour crude supply tightening.
* Goldman Sachs Warns of $95 Brent: Extreme "tail risk" scenarios price in further escalations involving Iranian energy infrastructure.
