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Gold

Gold experienced a notable decline of -0.42%, closing at 58,701, as investors closely tracked various factors influencing its price. Federal Reserve officials have signaled potential interest rate hikes, despite maintaining the benchmark rate in the recent Fed meeting. This uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rates has impacted gold sentiment. The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reported a drop in its holdings to the lowest level since January 2020. Changes in gold ETF holdings can reflect investor sentiment and impact gold prices accordingly. In India, physical gold buying improved due to lower domestic prices, while China, a major consumer, saw premiums ease from record highs. This shift was attributed to the relaxation of bullion import restrictions. In India, dealers charged premiums of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, a significant change from discounts of up to $8 seen last week. Chinese dealers offered premiums ranging from $60 to $130 an ounce over global spot prices, compared to the previous range of $90-$135. These high premiums were driven by Beijing's efforts to stabilize the domestic currency, including restrictions on imports of dollar-denominated gold, amid robust domestic demand. From a technical perspective, the market indicated long liquidation, with a notable drop in open interest by -16.53% to 5,519. Support for Gold is at 58,585, with a potential test of 58,470 if it continues to decline, while resistance is likely at 58,905, and a move above could lead to testing 59,110.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58470-59110.
* Gold dropped as investors are closely monitoring developments and data points impacting prices.
* Federal Reserve officials have issued warnings about the possibility of further interest rate hikes.
* Physical gold buying in India improved on a retreat in domestic prices

Silver

Silver faced a significant decline of -1.62%, settling at 72,150, as multiple concerns weighed on investor sentiment. A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, global economic growth uncertainties, and weak European data all played a part in silver's drop. Additionally, the strengthened U.S. dollar made silver less attractive to investors. The Fed, in its recent meeting, kept interest rates steady but signaled the likelihood of another rate increase before the year's end and fewer rate cuts in 2024. In contrast, the Bank of England surprised markets by halting its interest rate tightening cycle. Economic indicators in the U.S. and Eurozone were mixed, with surveys indicating stagnant business activity and the possibility of a contraction in the Eurozone's economy. Investors are also closely watching developments in Washington, where U.S. lawmakers are negotiating a spending bill with a September 30 deadline, potentially impacting financial markets. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and its commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 15.93% to 18,052. Support for silver is at 71,575, with a potential test of 70,995 if the decline continues. Resistance is likely at 73,185, and a move above could lead to testing 74,215.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70995-74215.
* Silver dropped as investors fretted about a hawkish Fed and global growth prospects.
* The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and its commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target.
* The euro zone economy is likely to contract in the current quarter and may not return to growth soon.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled with a slight decline of -0.05%, closing at 7,469. Initially, it had risen as Russia relaxed its fuel export ban after implementing it to stabilize the domestic market. However, gains were limited due to concerns about elevated interest rates potentially reducing demand. US oil production continued to decrease, supported by industry and official reports. The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance at its September meeting raised worries about economic growth and energy demand, stalling the oil rally. Uncertainties in China, the world's top crude importer, also influenced sentiment, although recent data indicated economic stabilization. The oil and gas rig count dropped by 11 to 630 in the week ending September 22, the lowest since February 2022. US oil rigs fell by eight to 507, their lowest since February 2022, while gas rigs decreased by three to 118. Despite this, higher oil prices are expected to drive US crude production from 11.9 million bpd in 2022 to 12.8 million bpd in 2023 and 13.2 million bpd in 2024, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -1.26% to 6,743. Support for crude oil is at 7,404, with a potential test of 7,338 if the decline continues, while resistance is likely at 7,544, and a move above could lead to testing 7,618.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7338-7618.
* Crudeoil dropped as Russia eases fuel export ban
* U.S. oil rigs fell by eight to 507, their lowest since February 2022
* Higher prices for oil put U.S. crude production on track to rise from 11.9 mbpd in 2022 to 12.8 mbpd in 2023

Natural gas

Natural gas ended the day with a 0.71% gain, closing at 241.1, driven by forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather in early October. This outlook is expected to increase gas usage for air conditioning. Additionally, record-high exports to Mexico and increased flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, particularly Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana, supported prices. However, gas price gains were tempered by concerns about Tropical Storm Ophelia potentially causing power outages in North Carolina and Virginia, reducing the need for gas for electricity generation. According to financial firm LSEG, average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states slightly decreased in September. Energy companies in the U.S. reduced the number of oil and gas rigs for the first time in three weeks, as reported by Baker Hughes. U.S. oil rigs decreased by eight to 507, the lowest since February 2022, while gas rigs dropped by three to 118. From a technical perspective, the market saw fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 4.53% to 19,187. Support for natural gas is at 238.4, with a potential test of 235.8 if it declines further. Resistance is likely at 244.3, and a move above could lead to testing 247.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 235.8-247.6.
* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather in early October
* EIA reported a 64 Bcf injection into domestic storage facilities for the week ending Sept. 15.
* Total Lower 48 working gas in underground storage ended the period at 3,269 Bcf higher than the five-year average.


Copper

Copper closed down by -0.61% at 713.9 due to several factors including a stronger dollar, high copper inventories, and reduced risk appetite following the Federal Reserve's indication of prolonged restrictive policies. Inventories of copper monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped significantly, but LME-registered warehouses still held copper at their highest levels since May 2022. Additionally, data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) revealed a surplus in the copper market from January to July. The discount for near-term copper delivery compared to the LME three-month contract reached a four-month high, indicating ample immediate supply. Southern Copper, a major copper producer in Peru, expected a 17% increase in copper production this year, contributing to overall output growth. In July, the global refined copper market reported a deficit of 19,000 metric tons, a significant decrease from the 72,000 metric tons deficit in June, as reported by the ICSG. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed fresh selling with increased open interest by 24.07% to 8,238. Copper has support at 710.5, with potential testing of 707.2 if it continues to decline. Resistance may be found at 718.7, and breaking above it could lead to testing 723.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 707.2-723.6.
* Copper dropped amid strong dollar and high inventories
* Inventories in LME-registered warehouses remained at their highest level since May 2022
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by SHFE fell 16.9% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc closed down by -0.73% at 224.75 due to concerns over higher U.S. interest rates and a slowdown in buying ahead of a long public holiday in China, a top consumer. Zinc inventories in China decreased slightly by 3,000 mt, but they remained elevated, particularly due to pre-holiday stockpiling in various regions. China's domestic refined zinc output increased this year, but the market grappled with dwindling inventory levels and constrained time spreads. Profitability challenges plagued small and medium-sized zinc mines, particularly in Europe and Australia, where high operating costs and declining prices led to suspensions, such as Almina-Minas do Alentejo in Aljustrel, which is set to remain closed until the second quarter of 2025. In August 2023, SMM China's refined zinc output dropped by 4.46% month on month to 526,500 mt but showed a year-on-year increase of 13.78%, albeit lower than expectations. From a technical perspective, the market saw fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 11.68% to 4,350. Zinc has support at 223.8, with potential testing of 222.9 if it continues to decline. Resistance may be encountered at 225.8, and surpassing it could lead to testing 226.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 222.9-226.9.
* Zinc fell as risk sentiment was dampened and buying slowed ahead of a long public holiday in r China.
* The zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 91,400 mt
* Markets in China, will be shut for public holidays during Sept. 29-Oct. 6.


Aluminium

Aluminium closed down by -0.39% at 205 as global primary aluminium production reached a record high in August, with smelters operating at an annualized rate of 71.2 million metric tons. This marked the second consecutive month above the 70-million metric ton threshold, following an August 2022 instance. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) revised its primary production figures, increasing estimates for both China and the rest of the world. Notably, the IAI added around 577,000 metric tons of annualized output to its "unreported" category. China's social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 7,000 mt compared to September 18 but increased by 3,000 mt from September 14, showing a YoY decline of 161,000 mt, maintaining the lowest level for the same period in five years. In mid-September, increased supply of aluminum billet from August led to a rise in arrivals, causing aluminum billet inventory to jump from under 70,000 mt to over 90,000 mt. From a technical standpoint, the market observed fresh selling, with open interest rising by 8.28% to 3,951. Aluminium has support at 203.9, with potential testing of 202.8 if it continues to decline. Resistance is likely at 205.8, and surpassing it could lead to testing 206.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.8-206.6.
* Aluminium dropped as global production of primary aluminium hit an all-time high in August
* Global production in August came in at 6.0 million metric tons, up 1.6% on August last year
* Global aluminium output rises 2.4% year on year in August – IAI

Cotton

Cotton faced a slight dip of -0.3% yesterday, closing at 60520, largely due to concerns about demand from China, which weighed on investor sentiment. Additionally, the cotton belt in Haryana is grappling with an infestation of pink bollworm, adding to uncertainties in the cotton market. The global cotton industry is experiencing significant reductions in both production and consumption, as outlined in the 2023-24 outlook for cotton. In the U.S., the projections for 2023/24 include higher beginning stocks but lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Unexpectedly large warehouse stocks reported for July 31, 2023, influenced the beginning stocks for 2022/23. U.S. cotton production is forecasted to decrease by 860,000 bales this month, with declines in the Southeast and Southwest regions. While consumption remains unchanged, exports are down by 200,000 bales, and ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower. The projected season-average price for upland cotton in 2023/24 is 80 cents per pound, up by 1 cent from the previous month. On the global stage, the 2023/24 world cotton projections indicate lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month's report. India expects to produce 330 to 340 lakh bales (each 170 kg) of cotton in the upcoming 2023-2024 cotton season, beginning on October 1. This announcement was made by J. Thulasidharan, President of the Indian Cotton Federation, who also mentioned that cotton sowing had surpassed 12.7 million hectares. In the current season, 335 lakh bales of cotton have already entered the market, with more arriving. Cotton cultivation in Telangana saw a slight reduction due to unfavorable seasonal conditions in certain areas. Cotton picking is expected to gain momentum in the state in the coming weeks. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing fresh selling, with a 1% increase in open interest, settling at 101. Prices have dropped by -180 rupees. Cotton is currently finding support at 60320, and if it falls below this level, it could test 60110. On the upside, resistance is likely at 60720, and a breakthrough could push prices to 60910.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60110-60910.
* Cotton dropped as concerns over demand from China dominated sentiment among investors.
* India is expected to see production of 330 lakh to 340 lakh bales in 2023-2024 that begins on October 1.
* China's cotton production was lowered to 5.9 million metric tons on reduced planted area for 2023/24
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29059.6 Rupees dropped by -0.13 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric faced a decline of -2.09% yesterday, closing at 14078, as increased offerings flooded the market due to recent rains that were seen as beneficial for standing crops. While rains have been promising, production prospects remain bleak due to a decrease in turmeric cultivation in Maharashtra. This reduction in cultivation, particularly in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, is casting uncertainty on price trends and supporting higher prices. Despite the positive impact of rains, turmeric supplies remain limited, and export inquiries have been subdued at current price levels. Turmeric exports for April to July 2023, however, showed a 15.05% increase compared to the same period in 2022, totaling 71,616.77 tonnes. In July 2023, 13,841.47 tonnes were exported, a 24.60% drop from June but an 8.05% increase from July 2022. Looking at the weather, the upcoming week is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall to Maharashtra and Telangana, which could further enhance turmeric crop growth. Nevertheless, the reduced focus of farmers on turmeric cultivation may result in a 20-25% decrease in sowing this year. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices closed at 13492.5 Rupees, reflecting a -1.45% decrease. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing fresh selling, with a 1.81% increase in open interest, settling at 14035. Prices have dropped by -300 rupees. Turmeric is currently finding support at 13882, and if it falls below this level, it could test 13688. On the upside, resistance is likely at 14372, and a breakthrough could push prices to 14668.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13688-14668.
* Turmeric dropped due to increased offerings in the wake of reports that recent rains may be helpful for standing crops.
* Supplies are down whereas production prospects are also looking bleak
* The upcoming week is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall to Maharashtra and Telangana
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13492.5 Rupees dropped by -1.45 percent.

Jeera

Jeera saw a 0.21% increase yesterday, closing at 60300, primarily due to shrinking supplies in the local market. Heightened festive demand and limited availability of quality crops are prompting millers to purchase whenever prices dip. However, Indian jeera prices remain competitive globally, which has subdued overseas demand and hampered exports. China, a major buyer of Indian jeera, has reduced its purchases in recent months, impacting overall Indian jeera exports. The possibility of China resuming purchases in October-November adds further uncertainty to market dynamics. Drier weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to lead to increased arrivals, potentially capping any upward price movement. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is expected to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, while the likely supply is estimated at 65 lakh bags.Jeera exports from April to July 2023 dropped by 7.99%, totaling 61,697.44 tonnes compared to 67,057.16 tonnes in the same period in 2022. In July 2023, 8,297.79 tonnes of jeera were exported, a 20.30% decline from June and a significant 58.23% drop from July 2022. From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with a 1.39% increase in open interest, settling at 4830. Prices have risen by 125 rupees. Jeera is currently finding support at 59910, and if it drops below this level, it could test 59510. On the upside, resistance is likely at 60940, with the potential for prices to test 61570 upon breaking through.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 59510-61570.
* Jeera prices gained due to shrinking supplies in the local market.
* Increased festive demand and limited availability of quality crops in the market is prompting miller to buy
* However, sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 60939.2 Rupees gained by 0.09 percent.