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The recent surge in gold prices, marked by a 0.11% increase to 63025, can be attributed to compelling data from the US. The unexpected decline of 0.1% in US PCE prices in November, contrary to market expectations, has fueled anticipation of early monetary easing by the Fed in 2024. This sentiment is reinforced by a 12.2% plunge in sales of new single-family houses in the US, hitting a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 590 thousand in November, the sharpest drop since April 2022. The disappointing figures, combined with the revision of Q3 GDP, have strengthened hopes for the Fed's first rate cut in March. Interestingly, despite a notable decrease in mortgage rates and a rebound in mortgage demand, the housing market in the US faces challenges. On the international front, physical gold demand in India has slumped due to elevated domestic prices, prompting dealers to offer steeper discounts. Other Asian markets, excluding China, have shown subdued interest, while China has witnessed a rise in premiums from $20-$40 to $34-$41 per ounce over global spot prices. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering with a 1.8% drop in open interest to 15505, accompanied by a price increase of 71 rupees. Gold is currently finding support at 62880, and a breach below could lead to a test of 62745. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 63175, and a breakthrough could propel prices to 63335.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 62745-63335.
* Gold gains on expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates next year.
* US PCE prices unexpectedly declined by 0.1% mom in November, contrary to market forecasts of a flat reading.
* Coupled with the previous revision of the country's Q3 GDP, the readings solidified hopes for the first rate cut by the Fed in March.


Silver
Silver faced a 0.48% decline, closing at 75026, driven by profit booking after an earlier rise attributed to a weakened dollar and lower yields. The US data reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in March, with PCE price indices falling below estimates in November, indicating a gradual move toward the Fed's inflation target. The University of Michigan survey reported a near three-year low in December 2023's year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.1%, influenced by falling energy prices and interest rate hikes. Despite lower mortgage rates, new single-family home sales in the US plummeted by 12.2% in November, signaling the sharpest decline since April 2022. The silver market is projected to face a deficit of 140 million ozs (4354 tonnes) in 2023 due to weak output and persistent demand outpacing supply. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a -2.63% drop in open interest to 14735, coupled with a price decline of -360 rupees. Support for silver is identified at 74690, and breaching this level could test 74360, while resistance is anticipated at 75520, with a potential price testing at 76020.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74360-76020.
* Silver pared gains on profit booking after prices rose amid weakened dollar and lower yields
* The latest data from the US strengthened beliefs that Fed would begin its rate cutting cycle next March.
*Both headline and core PCE price indices in the US came below estimates in November


Crude oil
Crude oil prices experienced a 2.47% surge, closing at 6315, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships. However, Angola's departure from OPEC raised concerns about the group's efficacy in stabilizing prices. Heightened security risks in the Red Sea prompted more maritime carriers to reroute. Concurrently, U.S. crude oil production hit a record 13.3 million barrels per day, with a weekly increase of 200,000 bpd. Despite this, crude inventories rose unexpectedly by 2.9 million barrels. The Energy Information Administration revealed a 1.7 million-barrel surge in Cushing, Oklahoma's crude stocks. Additionally, refinery crude runs and utilization rates increased, signaling potential demand. Conversely, U.S. gasoline stocks spiked by 2.7 million barrels, surpassing expectations. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped by -4.02%, settling at 11088. Despite this, prices rose by 152 rupees. Crude oil now finds support at 6163, and a breach below may test 6011, while resistance is anticipated at 6405, with a potential upswing to 6495.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6011-6495.
* Crude oil rose as tensions persisted in the Middle East following Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea
* Although Angola's decision to leave OPEC raised questions over the group's effectiveness in supporting prices.
* U.S. crude output rises to record 13.3 million bpd – EIA



Natural gas
Natural gas prices inched up by 0.24%, closing at 207.5, despite record output and mild weather impacting storage demand. The decrease in prices occurred despite forecasts of colder weather in January and increased heating demand. U.S. LNG export plants received record gas flows, contributing to the surplus. The market has been influenced by high production and ample storage, with some predicting that winter futures peaked at $3.608 per mmBtu on Nov. 1. Average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states rose to 108.6 bcfd in December. Meteorologists anticipate warmer-than-normal weather until Dec. 30, followed by a shift to colder conditions from Dec. 31 to Jan. 6. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico declined, while gas flows to major LNG export plants increased in December. From a technical standpoint, the market experienced fresh buying with a 4.26% rise in open interest, settling at 27070. Despite a modest price increase of 0.5 rupees, natural gas finds support at 203.4, with potential testing at 199.2. Resistance is expected at 210.3, and a breakthrough could lead to testing at 213.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 194.1-208.9.
* Natural gas dropped amid record output and mild weather.
* That price decrease came despite on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand in January
* Average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states rose to 108.6 bcfd so far in December from a record 108.3 bcfd in November.



Copper
The recent uptick in copper prices, with a marginal increase of 0.01% settling at 732.65, can be attributed to several factors. Foremost is the anticipation of Chinese economic policy support, coupled with concerns over supply disruptions due to shipping issues in the Red Sea. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a refined copper market deficit of 53,000 metric tons in October, a slight improvement from September's 56,000 metric tons deficit. In October, global refined copper output stood at 2.34 million metric tons, while consumption reached 2.39 million metric tons. Adjusted for inventory changes in Chinese bonded warehouses, there was a 52,000 metric tons deficit. Supply challenges have further fueled the price surge. The Cobre Panama mine suspension, accounting for 1.5% of the world's copper supply, stems from disputes with the Panamanian government. Concurrently, strikes at the Las Bambas mine in Peru and potential activity suspensions in BHP's Chilean mines have contributed to the tightening supply. These short-term disruptions coincide with growing concerns that global copper output may struggle to meet rising demand for the metal in carbon-free technologies, prompting key funds to increase long positions. From a technical standpoint, the market shows signs of fresh buying, evidenced by a 0.82% increase in open interest to 5034. Prices have risen by 0.1 rupees. Support for copper is evident at 731.3, with a potential test of 729.9 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is likely at 734.7, and a move above could lead to a testing of 736.7.

Trading Ideas:
*Copper trading range for the day is 729.9-736.7.
* Copper gains after support seen helped by expectations of Chinese economic policy support.
* Copper market in 53,000 metric tons deficit in Oct 2023 – ICSG
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 16.5% from last Friday.


Zinc
Zinc prices, represented by "Zinc," saw a marginal increase of 0.11%, settling at 229.2. The market dynamics were influenced by China's refined zinc output in November 2023, which stood at 579,000 metric tons. This marked a 4.23% month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase of 10.62%, slightly below market expectations. From January to November, China's total refined zinc output reached approximately 6.03 million metric tons, showing a year-on-year increase. Domestic zinc alloy output in China was 93,300 metric tons in November, reflecting a 4,800 metric tons decline compared to the previous month. Output reductions were observed as smelters in Shaanxi, Hunan, and Yunnan underwent production halts and overhauls. Globally, the zinc market deficit eased to 52,500 metric tons in October, compared to a deficit of 62,000 tons in September, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). However, for the first 10 months of 2023, there was an overall surplus of 295,000 tons, contrasting with a deficit of 33,000 tons in the same period of 2022. China's accelerating industrial output growth in November, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, contributed to the market sentiment. This followed a 4.6% gain in the previous month and exceeded market forecasts of 5.6%. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with a drop in open interest by -2.51%, settling at 4,545, while prices increased by 0.25 rupees. Zinc is currently finding support at 228.1, with a potential test of 226.8. Resistance is likely at 230.6, and a move above could lead to prices testing 231.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 226.8-231.8.
* Zinc prices gained as China's refined zinc output dropped 4.23% month on month in November.
* The global zinc market deficit eased to 52,500 metric tons in October from a deficit of 62,000 tons in September
* China, registered accelerating growth in its industrial output for November



Aluminium
Aluminium prices, represented by "Aluminium," experienced a decline of -0.48%, settling at 207.7. The market was influenced by supply concerns following a fuel depot blast in Guinea, a major raw material producer. The incident raised fears of a shortage of bauxite, a key feed material for alumina, an intermediary product for aluminium. The aluminium price decline was also attributed to a weaker dollar and technical buying. Commodity Trade Advisor (CTA) investment funds, driven by computer programs, engaged in buying activities, providing additional support to aluminium prices. In China, the Big Five banks announced interest rate cuts on some deposits, seen as an effort to pave the way for further reductions in policy rates to stimulate the economy. Maritime shipping routes faced risks as carriers avoided the Red Sea due to vessel attacks by the Yemeni Houthi militant group, causing trade disruptions through the Suez Canal, which handles about 12% of global trade. Aluminium inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses fell by 8.8% from the previous week. Additionally, global primary aluminium output in November increased by 2.7% year-on-year to 5.893 million tonnes, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a drop in open interest by -0.46%, settling at 3,885, while prices decreased by -1 rupee. Aluminium is currently finding support at 206.9, with a potential test of 206.1. Resistance is likely at 208.7, and a move above could lead to prices testing 209.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.1-209.7.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices rose due to supply concerns x
* The blast at an oil terminal in major bauxite supplier Guinea sparked fears of a shortage of the feed material for alumina.
* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 8.8% from last Friday.


Cotton
Cotton prices, symbolized by "Cottoncandy," registered a gain of 0.46%, settling at 56380, following the Cotton Association of India (CAI) maintaining its pressing estimate for the 2023-24 season at 294.10 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The CAI President, Atul S Ganatra, stated that the total supply until the end of November was estimated at 92.05 lakh bales, consisting of market arrivals of 60.15 lakh bales, imports of 3 lakh bales, and opening stocks of 28.90 lakh bales. Reports indicate a decline in the infestation of pink bollworm in the cotton crop, reducing from 30.62% during 2017-18 to 10.80% in 2022-23. The infestation has decreased across all cotton-growing areas in the north, central, and south zones of the country. Certified cotton stocks available for delivery against contracts dropped significantly from their recent peak on December 1st, standing at 6,325 bales on December 5th. The International Cotton Advisory Committee projects that global cotton production will outpace consumption for the second consecutive year, with global cotton lint production expected to grow by 3.25% to 25.4 million metric tons in the 2023-2024 season. In the U.S., the cotton balance sheet for the 2023/24 season reflects slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks. Globally, beginning stocks are higher, largely due to a 300,000-bale increase in India's 2022/23 production. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, with a -3.94% drop in open interest, settling at 195. Cottoncandy is currently finding support at 56200, and a breach below this level may lead to a test of 56010. On the upside, resistance is likely at 56580, and a move above could push prices to test 56770.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56010-56770.
* Cotton gains as CAI has maintained its pressing estimate for the 2023-24 season at 294.10 lakh bales
* Total supply till end November was estimated at 92.05 lakh bales, which consisted market arrivals of 60.15 lakh bales
* ICAC projected that global cotton production will likely outpace consumption for the second year in a row.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26166.8 Rupees dropped by -0.05 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices recorded a modest gain of 0.46%, settling at 14280, primarily driven by concerns over potential yield losses due to unfavorable weather conditions. Improved export opportunities also provided support to the market. However, the upside appears limited as buying activities have been slow, with expectations of stock releases ahead of the commencement of new crops in January 2024. Pressure on prices is further attributed to the overall favorable crop conditions resulting from conducive weather. The decision by Prime Minister Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana has sparked concerns among farmers in Maharashtra regarding the headquarters location. Despite these concerns, the crop condition is reported to be satisfactory, with harvesting expected to take place from January to March. Current levels of buying activity and decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability in the near term. The demand for turmeric has witnessed an increase both in developed and emerging nations, contributing to a 25% growth in exports. In October 2023, turmeric exports showed a gain of 11.58% compared to September 2023, amounting to 10,137.78 tonnes. However, there was a 9.30% drop in exports in October 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, indicated by a 3.05% increase in open interest, settling at 12155. Turmeric is currently finding support at 14112, and a breach below this level could lead to a test of 13942. On the upside, resistance is likely at 14470, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 14658.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13942-14658.
* Turmeric gains as shrinking supplies in the market supporting prices.
* Arrivals have been tighter and likely to remain down that is likely to support firmness in prices.
* Support also seen due to reduced production projections.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13233.15 Rupees dropped by -0.37 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices witnessed a substantial decline of -5.96%, settling at 35865, primarily attributed to higher production prospects in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The aggressive sowing activities for Jeera in Gujarat, coupled with sluggish exports, are expected to exert downward pressure on prices in the near term. Sowing for cumin in Gujarat exhibited significant growth, increasing by nearly 103% to 530,030 hectares compared to 261,635 hectares in the same period of 2022. Rajasthan also recorded a 13% increase in cumin sowing, reaching 6.32 lakh hectares. The robust sowing progress has raised production expectations, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the Jeera market. Additionally, global demand for Indian Jeera has declined, as buyers are opting for other origins like Syria and Turkey due to the comparatively higher prices of Indian Jeera. Export activities are likely to remain subdued in the upcoming months, influenced by both the production outlook and global demand dynamics. Jeera exports during April-October 2023 dropped by 34.02%, totaling 76,367.90 tonnes compared to 1,15,748.90 tonnes exported during the same period in 2022. In October 2023, Jeera exports declined by 13.39% compared to September 2023, amounting to 6,228.01 tonnes. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -6.41% drop in open interest, settling at 2892. Jeera is currently finding support at 35270, and a breach below this level may lead to a test of 34660. On the upside, resistance is likely at 37070, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 38260.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 34660-38260.
* Jeera prices dropped due to higher production prospects
* In Gujarat, Cumin sowing witnessed very strong growth by nearly 103% with 530,030.00 hectares against sown area of 2022
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 38500.9 Rupees gained by 0.55 percent.