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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.53% to settle at 85,419 due to profit booking, as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data for further insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. The market is closely watching the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for potential cues on rate cuts. The Fed has maintained interest rates this year after three cuts in 2024, and market expectations are leaning toward another cut in June. Meanwhile, China’s gold reserves increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 73.61 million fine troy ounces in February, up from 73.45 million in the previous month, reflecting continued central bank buying. However, gold demand in India remained subdued due to near-record high prices, with jewellers reluctant to make purchases at the financial year’s end. Indian dealers offered discounts of $10 to $21 per ounce, compared to $12 to $27 last week. Gold traded at a discount of up to $1 or a premium of $3 in China, while Singapore saw prices between a $0.50 discount and a $3 premium. India’s gold consumption in 2025 is projected to moderate from last year’s nine-year high of 802.8 metric tons, as record prices could weigh on jewellery demand despite rising investment demand.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 6.01% to 14,206 contracts while prices fell by 458 rupees. Gold is currently finding support at 85,100, with a further downside target at 84,790, while resistance is seen at 85,930, with a potential move toward 86,450 if breached.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 84790-86450.
* Gold dropped on profit booking as investors looked to inflation data for clues on Fed’s next interest rate decision.
* In his latest warning to Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump said that reciprocal tariffs on dairy and lumber could be imminent.
* Indian dealers offered a discount of $10 to $21 an, down from the last week's discount of $12 to $27 an ounce.


Silver
Silver prices declined by 0.76% to settle at 96,465 as investors engaged in profit booking ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The market remains cautious as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated no immediate need for rate cuts despite economic uncertainties. The latest U.S. nonfarm payroll report showed job additions of 151,000 in February, slightly below expectations of 160,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, while wage growth increased to 4%. Additional employment data showed a surge in layoffs to a 2020 high, though jobless claims fell more than expected. Silver inventories at Comex reached a record high of 403.2 million ounces as of February 27, reflecting higher availability in the market. Despite this, the silver market is expected to face a significant supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. Global silver demand is projected to remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, driven by industrial applications and retail investment, even as jewelry demand weakens. Industrial fabrication is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025, surpassing 700 million ounces for the first time, primarily due to green economy applications. Silver mine production is expected to reach a seven-year high of 844 million ounces, while recycling is projected to increase by 5%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by 3.63% to 18,604 contracts while prices declined by 736 rupees. Silver is currently finding support at 95,850, with a further downside target at 95,230. On the upside, resistance is seen at 97,595, and a break above could push prices toward 98,720.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 95230-98720.
* Silver dropped on profit booking as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for insights into Fed’s next policy steps.
* Market uncertainty deepened after President Donald Trump warned that Canada could soon face reciprocal tariffs on dairy and lumber.
* Fed Powell stated that policymakers see no immediate need to cut interest rates despite mounting economic uncertainty.


Crude Oil
Crude oil prices declined by 1.37% to settle at 5,778 as trade tensions between major oil consumers and producers weighed on demand sentiment. The ongoing tariff disputes between the U.S., China, and Canada have added uncertainty to global fuel consumption. Additionally, OPEC+ signaled a potential oil output increase starting in April, as some members struggled to comply with previous production cut commitments. In China, weak economic data further dampened demand prospects, with consumer and producer prices falling more than expected in February. Crude oil imports in China dropped by 5% in the first two months of 2025 compared to the previous year, mainly due to U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil shipments and port restrictions. In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 3.614 million barrels for the week ending February 28, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.9 million barrel build. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub also increased by 1.124 million barrels. However, gasoline inventories declined by 1.433 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.318 million barrels, both surpassing forecasted declines. Meanwhile, the EIA projected that U.S. oil production in 2025 will reach 13.59 million barrels per day, slightly higher than its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd. Technically, the crude oil market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 10.79% to 6,078 contracts while prices fell by 80 rupees. Support is seen at 5,729, with a potential downside to 5,681. On the upside, resistance is expected at 5,867, and a breakout could push prices toward 5,957.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5681-5957.
* Crudeoil dropped as fuel consumption continued to be hampered by escalating trade wars.
* China's crude oil imports fell 5% in the first two months of 2025 versus year-ago levels.
* Trump said the U.S. would increase sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a ceasefire deal with Ukraine.


Natural Gas
Natural gas prices surged by 7.15% to settle at 394.2, driven by colder-than-usual weather and concerns over supply replenishment ahead of summer. Increased heating demand due to Arctic conditions across North America and Europe has led to higher consumption, while production disruptions caused by freeze-offs have further tightened supply. Meanwhile, record flows to LNG export plants and potential reductions in Canadian gas exports to the U.S., following newly imposed tariffs by President Trump, have added to the bullish sentiment. Production trends remain volatile, with U.S. output rising to 105.8 bcfd so far in March, up from 105.1 bcfd in February. However, daily production has declined by 2.3 bcfd over the past week, hitting a one-week low of 104.6 bcfd on Friday. Storage withdrawals have also impacted the market, with U.S. utilities pulling 80 bcf from inventories in the week ending February 28, bringing total stocks down to 1,760 bcf. This withdrawal was below market expectations of 96 bcf and has left storage levels 24.9% lower than a year ago and 11.3% below the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA projects record-high natural gas output and demand in 2025. Dry gas production is expected to rise to 104.6 bcfd, while domestic consumption is forecasted to reach 90.7 bcfd. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising sharply by 23.2% to 19,717 contracts. Support is at 382, with further downside potential to 369.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 407.2, and a breakout could push prices toward 420.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 369.7-420.1.
* Natural gas rose as colder-than-usual weather fuelled concerns over supply replenishment ahead of summer.
* Support also seen on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants.
* Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico.


Copper
Copper prices declined by 0.7% to settle at 876.1 as weak economic data from China weighed on market sentiment. China’s consumer and producer prices fell in February, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s top copper-consuming nation. Despite Beijing’s commitment to policy support, economic uncertainty remains due to sluggish domestic demand and intensifying trade tensions with the U.S. Last week, copper prices surged to multi-month highs following U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal of a 25% tariff on copper imports. Such a tariff would increase reliance on domestic supply, which remains constrained as the U.S. imports nearly half of its copper and operates only two major smelters. However, Citi expects copper prices outside the U.S. to decline to $8,500 per ton in Q2 as investor positioning unwinds. Copper inventories in China have increased sharply, reaching nearly 270,000 tons—three times the level at the start of the year—amid rising domestic smelting capacity. Meanwhile, copper production in Chile, the world's largest producer, fell by 2.1% YoY in January to 426,889 metric tons. The global refined copper market recorded a deficit of 22,000 metric tons in December, significantly narrowing from November’s 124,000 metric tons. Technically, the copper market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 6.55% to 5,795 contracts. Copper finds support at 872.7, with further downside potential to 869.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at 881.4, and a breakout could push prices toward 886.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 869.1-886.5.
* Copper dropped as disappointing economic data from China dampened market sentiment.
* China’s consumer and producer prices declined in February, underscoring persistent deflationary pressures.
* China’s economic outlook remains uncertain, weighed down by weak domestic demand and an escalating trade war with the US.


Zinc
Zinc prices declined by 0.6% to settle at 271.5 as traders remained cautious over uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies. Concerns about a global economic slowdown due to U.S. import tariffs on key trade partners, including Mexico, Canada, and China, weighed on industrial metals demand. U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from predicting whether the U.S. could enter a recession, adding to market uncertainty. Meanwhile, China’s trade data revealed weaker-than-expected imports for January-February, alongside slowing export momentum and an increasing trade surplus with the U.S., further clouding the demand outlook. On the supply side, global mined zinc production fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, driven by a 7% decline in refined zinc production in China. Additionally, the Red Dog Mine in Alaska, a major zinc supplier, is expected to slow output in 2025 due to ore depletion. The global zinc market swung into a deficit of 62,000 metric tons in 2024, reversing from a surplus of 310,000 metric tons the previous year. Lower refined zinc production in China, Japan, and South Korea contributed to this shortfall. Zinc mine output also fell by 2.8% due to lower production in Canada, China, South Africa, and Peru. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose by 0.09% to 2,153 contracts while prices fell by 1.65 rupees. Zinc has support at 270.8, with a potential decline to 269.9 if selling pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is seen at 272.8, and a breakout could lead to a test of 273.9 levels.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 269.9-273.9.
* Zinc slipped as traders assessed uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies
* The market focused on the negative consequences for global economic growth and demand from U.S. import tariffs.
* Data showed Chinese imports unexpectedly shrank over January-February, while exports lost momentum


Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged up by 0.06% to settle at 264.75, supported by expectations of tightening supply and stronger demand. China’s aluminium production hit a record 44 million tons in 2024, but with Beijing maintaining its cap on output at 25 million tons since 2017, production is expected to slow significantly this year. Additionally, the removal of tax rebates on aluminium exports from China has dampened outbound shipments, boosting prices in foreign markets as domestic sales take precedence. On the demand front, the Chinese government’s decision to increase its budget deficit to a record level, allowing for higher special bond sales, is seen as a move to stimulate economic growth, which could further bolster aluminium demand. JP Morgan has projected a significant tightening in the global aluminium market, with a deficit exceeding 600,000 metric tons by 2025 due to constrained supply growth, aligning with China’s recent production struggles. Global primary aluminium output in January rose by 2.7% year-on-year to 6.252 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Meanwhile, China’s aluminium production increased by 4.2% in December to 3.77 million metric tons, with the daily output averaging 121,612 tons, a slight drop from November’s 123,667 tons. Technically, the market is under short covering, as open interest dropped by 1.03% to 3,162 contracts while prices gained 0.15 rupees. Aluminium has support at 263.7, with a potential decline to 262.6 if selling emerges. On the upside, resistance is seen at 265.9, with a move above potentially testing 267 levels.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 262.6-267.
* Aluminium rose as lower supply from major producers magnified expectation of stronger demand.
* U.S. President announced import tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium are still scheduled to take effect on 12 March.
* Aluminium exports out of China were muted after the government ended tax rebates on overseas sales


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices settled 0.65% higher at 52,890, tracking gains in ICE cotton prices amid rising US cotton exports and improved demand. Agricultural commodities, including cotton, benefited from reduced concerns over the tariff war, supporting market sentiment. However, upside potential was limited due to an overall increase in supply and subdued mill buying, as mills remain well-stocked with no immediate purchasing requirements. On the supply side, Brazil’s 2024-25 cotton production is projected to rise by 1.6% to 3.7616 million tons, with a 4.8% expansion in cotton planting area, signaling strong global supply potential. In India, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimated a decline in cotton output for the 2024-25 season to 301.75 lakh bales, down from 327.45 lakh bales in the previous season, due to lower yields in Gujarat and northern states. Total cotton supply until January 2025 was estimated at 234.26 lakh bales, including fresh pressings, imports, and opening stocks. Consumption until January stood at 114 lakh bales, while exports were 8 lakh bales. Ending stock for January was pegged at 112.26 lakh bales, with 27 lakh bales held by textile mills. CAI maintained its domestic consumption projection at 315 lakh bales for the season, while exports are expected to drop to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales in 2023-24. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 2.33% to 251 contracts while prices gained 340 rupees. Cottoncandy has support at 52,780, with a potential test of 52,680 on the downside. Resistance is seen at 52,960, and a breakout above could push prices towards 53,040.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 52680-53040.
* Cotton gained tracking rise in ICE cotton prices as rising US cotton exports boosted market sentiment.
* Support also seen amid easing concerns over the tariff war.
* USDA’s export sales report showed that US cotton export sales increased by 241,500 bales, up 45 per cent from the previous week
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25400.35 Rupees gained by 0.15 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices declined sharply by 3.26% to settle at 11,384 as the arrival of the new crop commenced in key markets like Nizamabad and Hingoli. The turmeric cultivation area expanded to 3.30 lakh hectares this season, reflecting a 10% rise compared to the previous year’s 3 lakh hectares. However, untimely rains have dampened productivity, limiting the expected production increase. Last year’s turmeric output was recorded at 10.75 lakh tonnes, but this season, productivity in key growing regions like Nanded may decline by 10-15%. As a result, overall production could remain steady or fluctuate by 3-5%. Despite the price drop, downside movement may be limited due to expectations of lower new crop yields, especially in regions affected by small rhizomes and crop rots. However, a clearer picture of production loss will emerge as harvesting progresses. On the export front, turmeric shipments surged by 9.80% during April-November 2024, reaching 1,21,601.21 tonnes compared to 1,10,745.34 tonnes in the same period last year. Notably, November 2024 exports stood at 12,721.25 tonnes, down 20.18% from October but 48.22% higher than November 2023. Meanwhile, imports doubled, rising 101.80% year-on-year to 18,937.95 tonnes, though November imports showed a marginal decline from the previous year. Technically, turmeric is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.14% to 12,610 contracts, while prices dropped by 384 rupees. Support is at 11,096, with further downside potential to 10,808, whereas resistance is at 11,714, with an upward move possibly testing 12,044.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 10808-12044.
* Turmeric dropped as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* However downside seen limited as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year
* Turmeric exports during Apr - Nov 2024, jump by 9.80 percent at 121,601.21 tonnes as compared to 110,745.34 tonnes exported during Apr - Nov 2023.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12127.5 Rupees dropped by -2.2 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices declined by 1.22% to settle at 20,610 due to weak demand and sufficient stock availability. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production this season is projected to be similar to last year, supported by good sowing conditions. However, downside movement may be limited as the new crop arrival in Gujarat has been delayed by almost a month due to unfavorable weather conditions, impacting early supply. India’s cumin seed production for 2023-24 has increased to 8.6 lakh tonnes from an area of 11.87 lakh hectares, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares in the previous year. The Indian cumin market remains highly competitive, as it is currently the cheapest globally at $3,050 per tonne, whereas Chinese cumin is priced $200-$250 higher. This price advantage is expected to attract strong export demand, particularly from China. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the past two months have boosted export demand from Gujarat. Jeera exports surged by 74.04% in the Apr-Nov 2024 period, reaching 1,47,006.20 tonnes compared to 84,467.16 tonnes in the same period last year. Technically, jeera is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 3.15% to 2,556 contracts while prices declined by 255 rupees. Support is at 20,530, with further downside potential to 20,440, while resistance is at 20,740, with a break above possibly testing 20,860.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20440-20860.
* Jeera dropped as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* However, only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags.
* However downside seen limited as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20828.6 Rupees dropped by -1.13 percent.

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