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The Cotton Association of India (CAI) holds a positive outlook, keeping the pressing estimate stable at 294.10 lakh bales for the 2023-24 cotton season. With an estimated total supply of 345 lakh bales, increased imports, and a projected decrease in closing stocks, the market exhibits resilience and potential for growth.

Highlights

Pressing Estimate for 2023-24 Season: CAI maintains its pressing estimate for the 2023-24 cotton season at 294.10 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This figure is based on inputs received from 11 cotton-growing state associations and other trade sources.

Total Supply till End November: The total supply till the end of November is estimated at 92.05 lakh bales. This includes market arrivals of 60.15 lakh bales, imports of 3 lakh bales, and opening stocks of 28.90 lakh bales.

Consumption and Exports till End November: Consumption till the end of November is reported at 53 lakh bales, while exports are estimated at 3 lakh bales. Stocks at the end of November stood at 36.05 lakh bales.

Total Cotton Supply for the Season: The total cotton supply for the current cotton season ending in September 2024 is estimated at 345 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This consists of opening stocks of 28.90 lakh bales, estimated imports of 22 lakh bales, and pressing figures of 294.10 lakh bales.

Year-on-Year Changes in Imports and Exports: Imports estimated by CAI for the current season are higher by 9.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each compared to the previous year. Domestic consumption figures are pegged at 311 lakh bales, the same as the previous year. Exports estimated by CAI are lower at 14 lakh bales, down from the previous season’s 15.5 lakh bales.

Closing Stocks Projection: The closing stocks for the current 2023-24 season ending in September are projected to be at 20 lakh bales, lower than the previous year’s 28.90 lakh bales.

Distribution of Stocks: Stocks at the end of November include 27 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 9.05 lakh bales with entities such as the Cotton Corporation of India, Maharashtra Federation, traders, multinational corporations (MNCs), and ginners. This also includes cotton sold but not delivered.

Year-on-Year Changes in Closing Stocks: The projected closing stocks for the current season are lower than the previous year, indicating a potential decrease in carryover stocks.

Conclusion

CAI's decision to maintain the pressing estimate aligns with a cautiously optimistic market. Increased imports and stable domestic consumption indicate robust demand, while a projected decrease in closing stocks suggests a balanced and potentially favorable outlook for the cotton market in the 2023-24 season. Stakeholders should closely monitor these dynamics for strategic decision-making in the evolving cotton landscape.

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