U.S. Oilseed Production Forecast Reduced for 2024/25 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
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The U.S. oilseed production forecast for 2024/25 is revised downward by 0.3 million tons, now expected to reach 134.4 million tons. Soybean production, the key component, is projected at 4.6 billion bushels, a reduction of 4 million bushels from earlier forecasts, due to lower yields. Despite lower production, ending stocks remain stable at 550 million bushels, supported by higher beginning stocks. Global oilseed production has seen slight gains, mainly due to higher sunflowerseed output in Argentina and Moldova. However, rapeseed and palm oil production estimates are lowered, driven by weaker results in the EU and lower palm oil exports from Indonesia.
Key Highlights
* U.S. oilseed production forecast cut by 0.3 million tons.
* Soybean production reduced to 4.6 billion bushels on lower yields.
* Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans remain steady at 550 million bushels.
* Global oilseed production sees increases in sunflowerseed and cottonseed output.
* Indonesian palm oil production lowered for both 2022/23 and 2023/24.
U.S. oilseed production for the 2024/25 season has been reduced by 0.3 million tons, bringing the total estimate to 134.4 million tons. The primary driver of this decrease is a cut in soybean production, now forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, a reduction of 4 million bushels from the September outlook. Soybean yields have dropped slightly to 53.1 bushels per acre, while the harvested area remains unchanged at 86.3 million acres. Despite lower production, beginning stocks have increased slightly, leading to steady supply levels at 4.9 billion bushels. With no change to exports and crush, soybean ending stocks are expected to hold at 550 million bushels.
In terms of price performance, the U.S. season-average price for soybeans remains stable at $10.80 per bushel, with soybean meal and oil prices also unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively. These price levels reflect the resilience of the market despite the production challenges.
Globally, oilseed production is up 0.2 million tons, driven by increased sunflowerseed and cottonseed output, particularly in Argentina and Moldova. Conversely, rapeseed production in the EU and palm oil production in Indonesia have both been revised downward. Global soybean exports are slightly lowered due to weaker performance from Ukraine, while global ending stocks remain mostly balanced.
Finally
U.S. soybean production declines on lower yields, but prices remain stable, while global oilseed production sees slight gains with mixed trends across key regions.
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