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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.73% at ?1,08,518 on MCX, reaching a fresh all-time high as market participants intensified bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The US jobs report for August showed fewer jobs added than expected and unemployment rising to the highest level since 2021, signaling a softening labor market. Consequently, traders now attribute a 90% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. All eyes are now on the US PPI and CPI data scheduled later this week, which could further clarify the Fed’s interest rate stance. Meanwhile, China’s gold reserves rose to 74.02 million fine troy ounces by the end of August, marking the tenth consecutive month of central bank purchases, and valued at $253.84 billion. Despite the rally in gold prices, physical gold demand in major Asian markets saw a decline due to record-high prices. Dealers in China and India offered steep discounts of up to $12-$16 per ounce over official domestic and spot prices to attract buyers. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% YoY in Q2 2025 to 1,248.8 metric tons, driven by a 78% jump in investment demand and a 21% rise in gold bar purchases.  Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, with open interest falling by -1.42% to 18,183 lots. Support is seen at ?1,07,500, with further downside potentially testing ?1,06,485. Resistance is likely at ?1,09,130, and a decisive move above this level could push gold towards ?1,09,745.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 106485-109745.

* Gold rose past 1,08,000 on MCX hitting a fresh all-time high amid growing bets on a Fed rate cut.

* The US economy added fewer jobs than expected in August, while unemployment rose to its highest level since 2021.

* China's central bank buys gold in August for 10th month in a row

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.7% at ?1,25,571 near an all-time high, driven by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The sentiment was bolstered by last week’s weak U.S. jobs report, which showed a sharp slowdown in job growth for August and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, its highest in nearly four years. This data confirmed a softening labor market and strengthened the case for a Fed rate cut next week. The market now fully prices in a 25-basis point cut, with an 8% chance of a larger 50-bp reduction, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. On the industrial demand front, China’s solar cell exports surged more than 70% in the first half of the year, largely driven by strong shipments to India. This trend further supported physical silver offtake in the near term. Safe-haven demand also contributed to the rally, as concerns grew over Fed independence, ongoing trade frictions, and geopolitical tensions. Investment demand remained robust, with silver ETP holdings reaching 1.13 billion ounces by June 30, 2025 — just 7% shy of the record high seen in February 2021. Technically, the market is under fresh buying momentum. Open interest in silver inched up by 0.01% to 17,958 lots, while prices gained ?874. Support is now seen at ?1,23,840, with a possible test of ?1,22,110 if prices decline. On the upside, resistance is likely at ?1,27,015, with a break above pushing silver towards ?1,28,460.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 122110-128460.

* Silver gains near an all-time high bolstered by mounting expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut.

* U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August, and the unemployment rate increased to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%.

* Traders have fully priced in a 25-bp cut this month, with an 8% chance of a jumbo 50-bp rate cut.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.81% at ?5,491, supported by a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ production hike and rising geopolitical tensions. The group announced an increase of only 137,000 barrels per day starting October, significantly below prior increases of about 555,000 bpd in August-September and 411,000 bpd in June-July. This conservative approach helped bolster prices amid growing fears of new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. The geopolitical risk intensified as Russia launched its largest air attack of the Ukraine war, targeting a government building in Kyiv. Additionally, talks involving European leaders visiting the U.S. aimed at resolving the Russian-Ukraine conflict added to market uncertainty. On the supply front, China continued to build up crude oil inventories at a rate of 530,000 barrels per day so far this year, helping offset potential supply shocks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs maintained its 2025 Brent/WTI forecast but slightly revised the 2026 outlook, projecting a modest surplus as supply upgrades in the Americas offset reduced Russian output. U.S. EIA data showed crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week to 420.7 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 3.8 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel, rose by 1.7 million barrels, higher than expected. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -10.55% to settle at 10,518 lots, while prices gained ?44. Key support stands at ?5,440, with a lower test likely at ?5,389. Resistance is placed at ?5,562, and a break above could see prices testing ?5,633.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5389-5633.

* Crude rises as OPEC+ limits output hike, fears of new US Russian oil sanctions

* China stockpiling at a rate of 530,000 bpd so far this year, S&P Global says

* OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day from October

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled up by 1.86% at ?273.9, driven by recent declines in output and an increase in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. The market gained additional support amid expectations that Freeport LNG’s plant in Texas will return to full service soon, bolstering export capacity. Despite forecasts projecting lower demand over the next two weeks and abundant gas in storage, prices remained firm. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, down from a record 108.3 bcfd in August. Energy firms added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ending August 29, 2025, meeting market expectations and remaining 5.6% above the five-year average, though still 2.2% below last year’s levels. Meanwhile, weather forecasts suggest warmer-than-normal conditions through September 23, likely to suppress heating demand despite the seasonal uptick. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects natural gas production and consumption to hit record highs in 2025 before slightly easing in 2026. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, as open interest dropped by -5.79% to settle at 21,024 lots, while prices rose by ?5. Support is seen at ?269.6, with a possible test of ?265.4 if downward pressure increases. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?279.8, and a breakout above this could see prices testing ?285.8, indicating a bullish trend continuation.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 265.4-285.8.

* Natural gas climbed on recent declines in output and an increase in flows to LNG export plants.

* However upside seen limited amid forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks and ample supplies of gas in storage.

* Average gas output fell to 107.7 bcfd so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.28% at ?899.6, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, continued outflows from LME-registered warehouses, and optimism over stronger import demand from China. The Yangshan copper premium rose by 1.8% to $58 per ton, marking a three-month high, signaling growing import appetite from the world’s top consumer. Chile’s copper exports in August fell by 2.2% year-on-year to $4.16 billion, reflecting slight softness in shipments, though Chilean output rose marginally by 0.3% year-on-year to 445,214 metric tons in July. Peru also reported a 7.1% YoY production increase in June, driven by strong output from the MMG-controlled Las Bambas mines. Inventory dynamics were mixed. LME copper stocks stood at 155,825 tons, registering outflows of 2,125 tons, along with fresh cancellations of 8,500 tons in South Korea. However, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventories rose by 2.6% over the last week. Comex copper inventories, already at a 22-year high, continued to climb due to a persistent premium in Comex copper futures compared to LME benchmarks. On the global supply-demand front, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a surplus of 36,000 metric tons in June, narrowing from a 79,000-ton surplus in May. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling by -1.95% to settle at 5,968 lots while prices inched up by ?2.55. Immediate support is placed at ?897.7, with a further test of ?895.8 if bearish pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is seen at ?901.5, and a break above could push prices toward ?903.4, indicating positive momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 895.8-903.4.

* Copper rises on weak dollar, LME stock outflows, and China import demand hopes.

* LME-registered copper stocks stood at 155,825 tons, with outflows of 2,125 tons across several locations.

* Chinese imports of unwrought copper in August fell from the July to 425,000 tons but rose from a year ago.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.4% at ?275.95, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and capacity constraints in China. The broader industrial metals complex witnessed gains across global exchanges after the Federal Reserve paved the way for a likely rate cut in its upcoming September meeting. This development improved credit conditions in major economies and further weakened the dollar, providing support for commodities priced in USD. The market’s focus remains on China, where slowing industrial activity raises concerns about demand. Earlier in the year, notable production cuts were seen, with Teck Resources' Red Dog mine reporting a 20% drop in Q1 output, and Nyrstar announcing a 25% annual reduction. Despite these trends, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)-monitored warehouses rose by 1.2% over the past week. The global zinc market recorded a narrowing deficit of 27,200 metric tons in June compared to 31,400 tons in May, while the first half of 2025 saw a surplus of 47,000 tons. China’s refined zinc production showed resilience, rising 3% MoM and about 23% YoY in July, driven by the ramp-up of domestic alloy production and the easing of routine maintenance in key regions. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling by -2.32% to 3,539 lots and prices up ?1.1. Immediate support lies at ?274.6, with further weakness potentially testing ?273.2. Resistance is placed at ?277.2, and a breakout above may target ?278.4, indicating bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 273.2-278.4.

* Zinc climbed amid a softer dollar and capacity constraints in China.

* Zinc supply is tightening as Chinese smelters face pressure to cut production due to capacity outpacing demand.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 1.2% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.18% at ?254.4, supported by a decline in on-warrant aluminium inventories in the LME storage, which fell to 442,425 tons – the lowest since late July. This was driven by fresh cancellations of 32,000 tons in Malaysia, highlighting tighter supply conditions. Global aluminium producers offered Japanese buyers premiums of $98–$103 per metric ton for October-December shipments, down 5–9% from the current quarter, reflecting weakening demand. In the July-September quarter, the Japanese premium stood at $108 per ton, down 41% from the prior quarter, indicating sluggish buying interest. Geopolitical developments further shaped market sentiment, as Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses after Guinea’s military-led government transferred mining leases to a state-run entity, potentially halting ore production for Emirates Global Aluminium. Additionally, South32 announced the closure of its Mozal plant in Mozambique due to power supply issues, ending Africa’s second-largest smelter operation.  On the demand side, China exported 542,000 tons of aluminium products in July and increased imports by 38.2% YoY, indicating continued strong domestic and export activity. Aluminium inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses dropped 1.2% last week, adding to the bullish sentiment. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose by 1.13% to 4,029 lots, with prices up ?0.45. Immediate support is at ?253.8, and a breakdown below could test ?253. Resistance stands at ?255.3, and a breakout above may target ?256, signaling further upside momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 253-256.

* Aluminium rises as LME on-warrant stocks drop to lowest since late July.

* RatingDog manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly reflected an expansion in the world's largest manufacturing sector.

* Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $98-$103 per metric ton for October-December.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled down by -0.98% at ?12,098 yesterday, pressured by expectations of increased acreage driven by favorable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remained limited amid concerns over crop damage from recent heavy rainfall in major growing regions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast normal to below-normal rainfall in September for some parts of South India, raising additional concerns for growers. Farmers in Warangal reported nearly depleted turmeric stocks, with no fresh arrivals in the past two days, supporting price stability. On the production front, preliminary estimates indicate a 15-20% increase in turmeric acreage as other crop options offer lower profitability. For the 2024-25 season, the total area under turmeric expanded to 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous year’s 3.0 lakh hectares. In the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals attracted strong buyer interest, with new produce consistently fetching higher prices than older stocks, due to superior quality. Market activity remained robust, with daily trade volumes ranging from 1,000 to 1,200 bags of 70 kg each.  Export data showed a 3.12% increase in turmeric exports during April–June 2025 to 47,949.56 tonnes, compared to 46,498.64 tonnes in the same period last year. However, exports in June 2025 dropped by 7.93% YoY and by 28.21% MoM. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down by -0.2% to 17,535 lots, and prices dropping ?120. Support lies at ?12,006, and further at ?11,912, while resistance is seen at ?12,262 and higher at ?12,424.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11912-12424.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* IMD forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September in some parts of South India has raised concerns for turmeric growers.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13355.3 Rupees dropped by 0 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled down by -0.36% at ?19,320 yesterday, pressured by weak domestic and export demand in the aftermath of the retail season. The market saw limited downside, supported by the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to support FMCG exports and domestic consumption. Traders attributed the price decline mainly to the conclusion of the retail season and ongoing inactivity from foreign buyers. Pressure was also visible due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest, amid adequate existing stocks. Farmers reportedly still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, though only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. The current season’s production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, down from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, despite favorable crop conditions and good sowing. On the global front, geopolitical disruptions in major cumin-producing countries such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have reduced their output, yet export demand from India remains limited, weakening market sentiment. Jeera exports during April–June 2025 declined by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes compared to the same period last year. In June 2025, exports rose by 10.26% YoY to 16,322.06 tonnes but dropped 29.67% MoM from May 2025. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest declining by -4.12% to 3,774 lots. Support is seen at ?19,160, and a further test of ?19,000 is possible. On the upside, resistance is expected at ?19,530, and a breakout above could push prices towards ?19,740.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19000-19740.

* Jeera dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Jeera exports during Apr - June 2025, dropped by 19.57 percent at 59,247.76 tonnes as compared to g Apr - June 2024

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

# In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19761.6 Rupees dropped by -0.16 percent.

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