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Gold

Gold settled higher by 0.24% at 96,691, supported by a softer dollar and safe-haven demand amid renewed trade tensions and mixed signals from the Fed. President Trump’s wave of tariff threats, including new duties on Brazil and potential steep levies on copper and other imports, continues to stoke concerns over global trade disruptions, boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge. Meanwhile, the Fed’s June minutes revealed a split on the timing of interest rate cuts—some officials favoring easing as early as July while others see no cuts necessary this year—underscoring a data-driven approach amid tariff-related inflation risks and mixed economic data. On the central bank front, China’s gold reserves edged up slightly to 73.90 million ounces in June, while net global purchases rose by 20 tonnes in May, led by Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Poland. Physical demand in Asia stayed muted due to elevated prices. Indian discounts narrowed to $14/oz amid lower imports, while premiums in China widened to as high as $33/oz, suggesting stronger demand than in other regions. Gold ETFs saw their largest semi-annual inflow since 2020, adding $38 billion and 397.1 tonnes in H1 2025, lifting total holdings to 3,615.9 tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 0.76% to 11,957 lots while prices rose by 230 rupees. Gold finds support at 96,430, with a break lower likely testing 96,170. Resistance is at 96,965, and a move above could push prices to 97,240.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 96170-97240.

* Gold rose as weaker dollar and fresh Fed minutes boosted safe-haven appeal.

* Fed minutes showed officials divided on timing and scope of rate cuts

* Investors focused on Trump’s tariff letters, with Brazil facing new steep duties.

Silver

Silver settled higher by 1.73% at 109,123, supported by a weaker US dollar and a notable drop in Treasury yields as dovish signals from the Fed boosted sentiment for precious metals. The Fed’s latest minutes indicated that most policymakers remain open to cutting rates later this year, reinforcing bullish momentum for silver. Trade-related tensions also added a layer of safe-haven appeal, with President Trump escalating tariff threats—including a new 50% levy on Brazilian goods and steep duties on copper and pharmaceuticals—fueling broader global uncertainty. On the macro side, robust US labor data showed initial jobless claims falling for a fourth straight week to the lowest level in seven weeks, underscoring the economy’s resilience despite high interest rates. The Silver Institute projects a significant market deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with industrial demand expected to hit a record high above 700 million ounces, driven by ongoing green economy applications. Investment demand remains strong too—global silver ETPs attracted net inflows of 95 Moz in H1 2025, already exceeding last year’s total, reflecting bullish price expectations. In India, retail investment demand has posted a 7% gain in the first half despite high domestic prices weighing on jewelry demand. echnically, silver is under short covering as open interest dropped 3.48% to 16,375 while prices climbed by 1,858 rupees. Immediate support is at 107,725; a break below could see 106,330 tested. Resistance is pegged at 110,090, and a move above could open the door for a test of 111,060.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 106330-111060.

* Silver rose as softer US dollar and lower Treasury yields lifted investor appetite for metals

* Fed minutes showed most policymakers open to cutting interest rates later this year

* US initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, lowest in seven weeks, beating forecasts

Crude oil

Crude oil settled sharply lower by 2.74% at 5,718 as markets weighed the impact of fresh U.S. tariff threats on global economic growth prospects. President Trump’s move to slap a punitive 50% tariff on Brazilian exports intensified concerns over trade disruptions, adding to existing headwinds for global oil demand. Despite this bearish macro sentiment, oil found some support from robust underlying fundamentals—global daily flights hit a record average of 107,600 in early July, with Chinese flights at a five-month high, signaling steady jet fuel demand. On the supply side, OPEC+ remains committed to ramping up production further in September as members unwind voluntary cuts and the UAE moves to a larger quota. Meanwhile, EIA data painted a mixed picture: U.S. crude stocks surged by 7.1 million barrels, surprising the market which had expected a draw. Crude inventories at Cushing also rose modestly. However, gasoline demand climbed 6% to 9.2 million bpd last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 2.7 million and 825,000 barrels respectively, highlighting resilient refined product consumption. The EIA revised its 2025 U.S. production outlook slightly lower to 13.37 million bpd due to slowing drilling activity as producers react to lower prices and policy uncertainty. Technically, the crude oil market is under long liquidation as open interest tumbled by 14.46% to 10,451 while prices dropped 161 rupees. Crude is now finding support at 5,658; a break below could test 5,599. Resistance is seen at 5,828, with a move above likely to push prices towards 5,939.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5599-5939.

* Crudeoil dropped weighed by growing concerns over broader trade disruptions that could dampen oil demand.

* US crude inventories rose last week while gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.

* OPEC+ poised to approve major output hike for September as UAE shifts to larger quota.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled sharply higher by 4.54% at 285.5, driven by rising flows to LNG export facilities and forecasts for hotter-than-average weather boosting demand prospects. Weather models now expect sustained heat across the Lower 48 U.S. states through at least July 25, lifting near-term demand projections. LSEG forecasts indicate average gas demand, including exports, will rise from 107.3 bcfd this week to 108.8 bcfd next week, underscoring robust consumption for power generation amid the heatwave. On the supply side, while average Lower 48 output hit a record 106.7 bcfd so far in July, daily output recently slipped by 2.4 bcfd to a four-week low of 105.1 bcfd, though the decline was milder than earlier estimates.  Storage dynamics show U.S. utilities added 53 bcf of gas into storage last week, in line with the five-year average build but below the same week last year’s 61 bcf injection, keeping inventories 6.1% above the seasonal norm at 3.006 tcf. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook supports the bullish narrative, projecting record-high U.S. gas production and demand in 2025, alongside increasing LNG exports that are set to reach 14.6 bcfd next year and 16 bcfd by 2026. Technically, natural gas is under short covering as open interest dropped by 18.69% to 29,588 while prices surged by 12.4 rupees. Immediate support is at 277.2; a break below could test 268.9. Resistance is seen at 290.1, with a move above likely to push prices toward 294.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 268.9-294.7.

* Natural gas prices rose as flows to LNG export plants continued to climb steadily higher.

* Daily US gas output dropped 2.4 bcfd over six days, reaching four-week low midweek.

* LSEG forecasts weather staying warmer than normal across the Lower 48 through late July.

Copper

Copper settled marginally higher by 0.22% at 885.8, supported by fresh geopolitical developments and signs of tighter fundamentals. The confirmation by US President Donald Trump of a 50% tariff on copper imports effective August 1 sharply shifted market sentiment, pushing the premium on US copper futures over the LME benchmark to a record 25%. This indicates that traders anticipate tighter US supplies as the flow of copper into the country slows following months of aggressive stockpiling ahead of the tariff decision. With the US importing nearly half of its copper needs—mainly from Chile—market participants now expect domestic supply to tighten further, lending price support. On the global side, fundamentals remain mixed. The International Copper Study Group reported a 50,000 metric tons deficit in the refined copper market for April, flipping from a surplus in March. For the first four months of 2025, however, the market remains slightly in surplus, though down marginally from the same period last year. Chinese data added more complexity: while imports of copper concentrate rose 5.8% YoY, they fell sharply from April’s record as smelters maintained output levels. Imports of unwrought copper and products also dropped by 2.5% MoM and nearly 17% YoY, signaling cautious demand amid high local inventories. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 7.66% to 7,644 while prices gained modestly by 1.95 rupees. Immediate support is at 882.7, with next lower levels at 879.7. Resistance is seen at 889.1, and a break above could test 892.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 879.7-892.5.

* Copper prices jumped after Trump confirmed a 50% tariff on imports effective August 1.

* Tariff news pushed US copper futures premium over LME contracts to record 25% level.

* Private survey showed China’s June manufacturing returned to growth, easing US trade tensions.

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 1.16% at 260.8, lifted by a softer dollar and signs of supply tightness overseas, though gains were capped by concerns about global demand growth amid new U.S. tariffs. The Biden administration’s fresh tariff notices, targeting 14 countries with rates between 25% and 40% effective August 1, have stoked uncertainty across metals markets. Added to this, President Trump warned of an extra 10% duty on BRICS nations, raising fears of broader trade friction that could dampen industrial activity. Fundamentals remain mixed. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories rose by 4% last week, with deliverable stocks up by 800 tonnes, signaling weaker spot demand as manufacturers limited purchases to immediate needs. China’s factory activity continues to show contraction per official PMI data, reinforcing concerns about fragile consumption, although higher consumer spending offers some hope for a demand rebound later this year. On the supply side, global zinc output is under mild pressure. Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine, the world’s largest zinc mine, saw output drop 20% in Q1 due to nearing depletion. Australia’s Nyrstar, a major smelter, will cut 2025 output by 25% as high ore costs render treatment charges unattractive. Technically, the zinc market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 1.08% to 3,293 while prices gained 3 rupees. Immediate support is at 259; below that, a test of 257.2 is possible. Resistance is seen at 261.9, with further upside towards 263 if prices break higher.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 257.2-263.

* Zinc gained on a weaker dollar but upside capped by fears of tariff-driven demand slowdown.

* Trump also warned of an extra 10% levy on BRICS countries for “anti-American” policies

* SHFE zinc inventories rose 4% weekly, indicating weaker offtake as factory demand stays sluggish

Aluminium

Aluminium settled slightly higher by 0.08% at 249.75, supported by supply-side developments in China despite a broadly cautious demand outlook. Production in China fell 3.23% month-on-month in June as smelters in Shandong reduced capacity for replacement projects and stricter compliance checks delayed commissioning at new sites in Yunnan. On the supply side, global trends indicate mixed signals. LME inventories rose sharply by 47,450 tonnes since late June, lifting total on-warrant stocks to 384,350 tonnes and flipping the cash premium to a discount—a sign of easing tightness in the near term. Yet, when viewed in a broader context, combined stocks on the LME and SHFE remain about 60% lower than a year ago, highlighting ongoing structural tightness. European supply remains constrained due to sanctions on Russian output, while some smelters in Qinghai and central China have announced cuts amid weak end-use demand and large inventories of intermediate alloys. Despite weak manufacturing PMI data pointing to another month of contraction in China’s key downstream sectors, expectations of lower production growth may balance soft demand. China’s aluminium output in May rose 5% YoY to 3.83 million tonnes, bringing the five-month total to 18.59 million tonnes—up 4% YoY. Japan’s Q3 premiums fell sharply by 41% due to ample supply and subdued spot demand, underlining soft international sentiment. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose marginally by 0.03% to 3,543 while prices edged up 0.2 rupees. Immediate support is at 249.3, with further downside testing 248.7 if broken. Resistance is seen at 250.4, and a move above could push prices towards 250.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 248.7-250.9.

* Aluminium gains as support seen after China’s aluminium production fell 3.23% MoM in June.

* LME aluminium stocks rose by 47,450 tons, flipping cash-to-three-month premium into a discount

* Global primary aluminium output in May rose 1.5% year on year to 6.245 million tonnes

Turmeric

Turmeric settled higher by 0.93% at 13,424 as short covering emerged after recent declines driven by expectations of higher acreage this season due to favorable rains. Daily arrivals increased slightly to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 quintals previously, indicating steady market flow. Dry weather has supported timely sowing, and preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage could expand by 15–20% as growers shift from less profitable crops. However, despite higher acreage, production gains may be capped due to untimely rains affecting yields. The 2024–25 area under turmeric is pegged at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% year-on-year, yet yields may be 10–15% lower, particularly in key regions like Nanded, where small rhizomes and crop rots have been reported. At the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals continue to attract strong buying interest, with new stock consistently commanding a premium over older inventory due to better quality. About 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded, and with harvesting ongoing, steady arrivals are expected to keep the market active through June. On the export front, shipments in April 2025 rose 6% year-on-year to 14,956.80 tonnes, though they dipped slightly compared to March. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying as open interest edged up by 0.23% to 17,810 lots while prices gained 124 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 13,232; a break below could see prices testing 13,042. Resistance is likely at 13,604, and a move above may lift prices to 13,786.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13042-13786.

* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14077.45 Rupees gained by 0.14 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled higher by 1.23% at 20,090, supported by improved export demand and easing geopolitical concerns in major producing regions like Syria and Turkey. However, the upside remains capped due to subdued domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season and limited fresh buying interest from overseas buyers. Traders report that ample stocks and slow movement have kept market sentiment restrained. Farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded before the season concludes, implying a significant carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production estimates for the current season stand at 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, thanks to favorable crop conditions and sowing progress. Gujarat’s production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to contribute 48–50 lakh bags. Meanwhile, production in other key origins like China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan is also facing challenges due to adverse weather and regional issues, but so far, this hasn’t translated into robust export demand for Indian jeera. On the trade front, India exported about 19,719.60 tonnes of jeera in April 2025, a sharp 48.11% drop from April 2024, but up 13.74% from March, indicating some recovery. Technically, jeera remains under fresh buying as open interest surged by 21.66% to 4,533 lots while prices gained 245 rupees. Support is seen at 19,900; a break below may test 19,720. Resistance is now at 20,220, above which prices could move towards 20,360.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19720-20360.

* Jeera gains on strong export demand and easing geopolitical concerns.

* However upside seen limited due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20396.7 Rupees dropped by -0.11 percent.

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