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Gold 

Gold prices eased by 0.18% to 77,272 as investors digested the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut and the cautious stance on further cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that the U.S. presidential election would not affect immediate monetary policy, though policymakers highlighted uncertainties in the economic outlook. Traders now assign a 71% probability to another 25-bps cut in December. In India, post-festival demand softened as buyers held back amid price volatility, although dealers charged premiums up to $3 an ounce over domestic prices. Last week, premiums varied from $1 to discounts of $5. In China, the central bank refrained from gold purchases for the sixth consecutive month, and discounts widened to $15-$17 from last week’s $11-$14. In other Asian markets, gold was trading at modest premiums, reflecting mixed regional demand. Globally, excluding over-the-counter (OTC) trading, year-on-year gold demand held steady at 1,176.5 metric tons for Q3, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported. Investment demand offset declines in jewelry purchases, with the WGC noting strong inflows in physically-backed ETFs, marking the first positive quarter since early 2022, with 95 tons added. Bar and coin investments, however, slipped by 9%, while jewelry consumption dropped 12%. Central bank buying fell sharply by 49% year-on-year as governments scaled back purchases. On the supply side, mine production hit a Q3 record with a 6% increase, and recycling rose by 11%. Technically, gold is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 6.39% drop in open interest, settling at 9,927 contracts while prices declined by 139 rupees. Currently, support lies at 76,990, with potential to test 76,705 if breached. Resistance is expected at 77,595, with prices likely to test 77,915 if they move above this level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 76705-77915.
* Gold remained in range amid Fed’s dovish rate cut and hints of flexibility in future policy direction.
* Fed’s Powell signals rate cuts could adapt to labor market shifts, keeping investors cautious.
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the results of presidential election would have no "near-term" impact on U.S. monetary policy.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 1.13%, settling at 91,269 as markets reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and the implications for the U.S. interest rate outlook. Fed policymakers have expressed a balanced view on the risks to their dual mandate but noted uncertainty in the economic outlook. Jerome Powell, in his press conference, did not provide specific guidance on future rate decisions, keeping the door open for adjustments in the December meeting and beyond. He emphasized that, even with recent rate cuts, the Fed’s policy remains restrictive, allowing room to lower rates gradually if needed, especially if the labor market shows signs of softening. In the U.S., unemployment claims saw a rise, potentially hinting at a slight cooling in the job market. Meanwhile, India’s silver imports are projected to nearly double this year as demand surges from the solar panel and electronics sectors and investors increasingly see silver as a valuable hedge. Trade data indicates that India imported 4,554 tons of silver in the first half of 2024, up from just 560 tons in the same period last year, driven by depleted inventories in 2023 and a need to guard against price hikes. Technically, the silver market is under long liquidation, as open interest fell by 0.68% to 23,220 contracts with prices down by 1,044 rupees. Silver finds support at 90,695, and a dip below this level could test 90,115. On the upside, resistance is expected at 92,165, and a break above may lead to testing 93,055.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 90115-93055.
* Silver dropped as markets digested Trump's victory and its potential impact on the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
* Fed policymakers noted that the risks of meeting their dual mandate are “roughly balanced” but acknowledged uncertainty in the economic outlook.
* Jerome Powell avoided giving specific guidance on future rate moves, leaving room for flexibility at the December meeting and beyond.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 2.82% to 5,956 as concerns over Hurricane Rafael's impact on U.S. Gulf oil and gas infrastructure eased, while fresh economic stimulus from China sparked mixed sentiment. China's crude oil imports decreased by 9% in October, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year declines. Import volumes reached 44.7 million metric tons, approximately 10.53 million barrels per day (bpd), down from September’s 11.07 million bpd and 11.53 million bpd in October 2023. The drop was influenced by a refinery closure and weaker demand from independent refiners. In the U.S., crude inventories rose by 2.149 million barrels for the week ending November 1, surpassing expectations of a 1.8 million increase, as reported by the EIA. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by 0.522 million barrels, while gasoline stocks grew by 0.412 million barrels, contrary to a forecasted 1.2 million-barrel decrease. Distillate stockpiles also rose by 2.947 million barrels, against predictions of a 1 million-barrel drop. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report projected a downward revision in global oil demand growth for 2025 to 104.3 million bpd, 300,000 bpd lower than prior estimates, citing slowing economic activity in China and North America. U.S. production is forecasted at a slightly reduced 13.22 million bpd for this year, with a revised output expectation for 2025 at 13.54 million bpd. On the technical front, crude oil is under long liquidation, with a 7.05% drop in open interest settling at 12,266 contracts, alongside a 173-rupee price decrease. Support is now at 5,887, with potential to test 5,818 if it breaks below, while resistance is anticipated at 6,053, with a move above potentially testing 6,150.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5818-6150.
* Crude oil prices fell on receding fears over the impact of Hurricane Rafael in the U.S. Gulf
* China's crude oil imports fall for sixth straight month on refinery closure
* Crude oil inventories in the US rose by 2.149 million barrels in the week ended November 1, 2024

Natural gas

Natural gas prices dipped by 0.79% to settle at 224.8, as forecasts indicate mild weather will persist across the U.S. through late November, reducing immediate heating demand and allowing utilities to continue adding gas to storage. Currently, storage levels are approximately 6% above the seasonal average, providing a buffer that helps ease market concerns over supply. Production in the Lower 48 states has decreased slightly to an average of 100.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October, and significantly lower than the December 2023 record of 105.3 bcfd. Daily output over recent days has dropped to a preliminary five-month low of 99.6 bcfd, adding some support to prices despite generally mild weather. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects natural gas demand will reach a record high in 2024, driven by increased domestic consumption and higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, expected to average 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025. Utilities recently added 69 billion cubic feet to storage, bringing total stockpiles to 3.932 trillion cubic feet, slightly above market expectations. Storage levels remain well above both last year’s levels and the five-year average. Technically, the natural gas market is experiencing long liquidation, as open interest fell by 2.3% to 22,601 contracts while prices dropped by 1.8 rupees. Natural gas has support at 221.5, with potential for further downside to 218.2 if it breaks. Resistance is now seen at 230.2, and a move above this could test the next level at 235.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 218.2-235.6.
* Natural gas eased on forecasts for the weather to remain mild through late November
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to 100.7 bcfd so far in November from 101.3 bcfd in October.
* Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 23.


Copper

Copper prices dropped by 1.82% to settle at 834.4, as market sentiment soured over demand prospects following China's decision not to implement additional direct stimulus for its economy. Instead, China’s National People’s Congress announced a CNY 10 trillion debt swap package aimed at addressing local government debt, which fell short of expectations for manufacturing support, thus dampening the outlook for industrial inputs like copper. The U.S. dollar retained strength post-election amid speculations of elevated interest rates to offset potential fiscal expansion policies, further pressuring commodities priced in USD and limiting manufacturing demand from emerging markets. On the supply side, Chile’s state-owned copper producer Codelco recorded a 5.2% year-on-year production increase in September, reaching 123,100 metric tons, while output from BHP’s Escondida mine dropped by 5.4% and Collahuasi saw a production boost of 14%. Meanwhile, the global refined copper market remained in surplus, with a 54,000 metric tons excess in August, following July's 73,000 tons surplus, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first eight months of 2024, the copper market recorded a significant surplus of 535,000 metric tons. China’s unwrought copper imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year in October to 506,000 metric tons, driven by seasonal demand and improved consumption outlook, although premiums for copper in Yangshan dropped to $48 per ton from October's peak of $69. Year-to-date copper imports totaled 4.6 million tons, up 2.4%. Technically, copper remains in a selling trend as open interest increased by 4.28%, reaching 7,486 contracts, while prices fell by 15.5 rupees. Support lies at 828.1, with a potential drop to 821.7 if breached, while resistance is seen at 844.8, with possible testing of 855.1 if broken.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 821.7-855.1.
* Copper sank after the Chinese government refrained from delivering fresh direct stimulus to its slowing economy.
* National People’s Congress unveiled a CNY 10 trillion debt swap package to assume off-balance sheet debt from local governments.
* Chile's Codelco increased production by 5.2% year-on-year in September for a total of 123,100 metric tons

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 1.77%, settling at 279.9, as markets weighed the potential impact of China’s recent $1.4 trillion debt package on metal demand. While China’s Standing Committee of the People’s National Congress aims to stimulate the economy by allowing local governments to restructure debt and reduce financing costs, the stimulus underwhelmed investors due to its limited focus on new spending initiatives. Weak demand in China’s housing sector remains a significant concern, with construction PMI at a record low of 50.4 and house prices down 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing solvency issues among major developers. Zinc inventory in key regions registered mixed trends, with Shanghai seeing a decline due to fewer arrivals and increased purchases at lower prices, while Guangdong’s inventory rose with higher warehouse arrivals. Globally, the zinc market deficit widened to 66,300 metric tons in August from 51,000 tons in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). However, there was still a surplus of 127,000 tons from January to August 2024, down from 418,000 tons in the same period last year. China’s refined zinc production in September rose by over 2% month-on-month, although it declined by over 8% year-on-year, reflecting recovery efforts from maintenance activities in major smelting regions. Domestic production is expected to grow modestly, with Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Hunan leading the increase as post-maintenance output resumes. Technically, zinc is under fresh selling pressure with a 10.22% increase in open interest to 3,137 contracts as prices fell by 5.05 rupees. Zinc finds support at 277.6, with a break below this potentially testing 275.3. Resistance is anticipated at 283.7, and a move above could target 287.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275.3-287.5.
* Zinc dropped as markets assessed the impact that fresh stimulus from China may have on metal demand.
* Zinc ingot inventory in seven regions was 120,000 mt, an increase of 1,100 mt compared to October 31.
* China’s official construction PMI falling to a record low of 50.4 and house prices sinking by 5.7% annually.


Aluminum

Aluminum prices fell by 2.15% to 241.6 amid market disappointment over the limited scope of China’s new fiscal stimulus measures aimed at stimulating economic growth. China introduced a support package to ease debt repayment burdens for local governments, but it fell short of the direct stimulus investors had hoped for. The potential for higher tariffs on China under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump also loomed over the metals market, adding to concerns about reduced demand for Chinese exports. In October, China’s aluminum production rose 1.69% year-on-year as capacity resumed following technical renovations, although some smelters failed to meet full operational expectations. Downstream demand for alloy products remained stable with a modest uptick, and liquid aluminum output increased, reflecting robust demand in the peak production months of September and October. Additionally, China’s unwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports surged, reaching 5.5 million tons in the first ten months, a 17% increase from the previous year. Exports for October alone hit 577,000 tons, marking a 2.7% rise month-on-month and a significant 31% year-on-year increase. Production figures for September also highlighted a 1.2% annual growth, with daily output averaging 121,667 tons, slightly above August’s average. Profit margins for aluminum producers improved by 12.2% in September, with profits averaging 2,379 yuan ($334.04) per ton, bolstered by strong prices. From a technical perspective, aluminum is undergoing long liquidation, as open interest dropped by 20.67% to 3,450 contracts, with a price decline of 5.3 rupees. Support is currently at 239.1, with a potential test of 236.5 if broken. Resistance is anticipated at 245.9, with prices possibly testing 250.1 if surpassed.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 236.5-250.1.
* Aluminium dropped on disappointment over China's fiscal support
* The total alumina inventory at domestic ports amounted to 50,500 tonnes, an increase of 20,500 tonnes compared to the week.
* China’s aluminum production in October 2024 increased by 1.69% YoY.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices edged up slightly by 0.04% to 56,070 as the yarn market grapples with weak demand and constrained payment flows. India’s cotton production for 2024/25 is expected to decrease by 7.4% year-on-year to 30.2 million bales due to reduced acreage and crop damage from excessive rainfall. This outlook aligns with the USDA’s recent forecast revision, which lowered India’s production to 30.72 million bales and reduced ending stocks to 12.38 million bales due to adverse weather and pest pressures. Meanwhile, global cotton production is anticipated to rise, with increased outputs in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting reductions in the U.S. and Spain. India's cotton acreage for the current kharif season has decreased by 9% to 11.29 million hectares as farmers in key cotton-growing regions like Gujarat shifted to groundnuts, driven by higher returns. Consequently, India’s cotton exports are projected to decline to 1.8 million bales from last year’s 2.85 million, while imports may rise to 2.5 million bales, supporting global prices. On the U.S. front, the USDA’s October report reduced the U.S. cotton production estimate to 14.2 million bales, down 300,000 bales, due to hurricane-related damages. The agency also lowered mill use and exports amid weaker global import demand. Global ending stocks for the 2024/25 season are revised down slightly to 76.3 million bales. In Rajkot’s major spot market, cotton prices slipped marginally to 26,296.6 rupees, reflecting subdued spot market activity. Technically, the Cottoncandy market shows short covering, with open interest unchanged at 168 contracts and prices gaining 20 rupees. Current support is at 56,020, with a further downside potential to test 55,960 if breached. Resistance is at 56,120, and breaking above this level could see prices testing 56,160.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55960-56160.
* Cotton settled flat as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production estimated to drop to 7-year low in 2024-25
* USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26296.6 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 0.41%, settling at 13,146 on short covering, following previous declines due to weak demand and increasing arrivals. The expected increase in acreage for the upcoming season, estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year, signals a likely rise in production, exerting pressure on prices. However, reports of crop damage from heavy rains limit the downside, as losses might be higher than anticipated. Recent weather conditions, with a combination of dry spells followed by light rains, have benefited crop growth, particularly in regions like Vidarbha, which received 20 mm of rain, and Telangana with 18 mm. The forecast of low supply amid five months remaining before harvest suggests prices could trend higher in the coming weeks. In Indonesia, dry weather has accelerated turmeric harvesting, currently at peak levels, which could further influence global supply. Additionally, in India, turmeric sowing has increased significantly, with areas like Erode reporting double the acreage compared to last year. The total sowing is estimated at 3.75-4 lakh hectares, up from 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year. Despite the increased sowing, the upcoming crop is estimated at 70-75 lakh bags, which may fall short of demand, as the outstanding stock is expected to be exhausted by 2025. Technically, the turmeric market is witnessing short covering with open interest declining by 1.17% to 11,435 contracts, as prices gained by 54 rupees. Support is seen at 13,082, with further potential to test 13,018. Resistance is expected at 13,220, and a break above this level may lead to prices testing 13,294.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13018-13294.
* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* The expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year.
* Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13553.1 Rupees dropped by -0.94 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices rose by 0.54% to 25,275 on short covering after recent declines due to increased arrivals, with approximately 15,000 bags arriving daily in Unjha. Farmers are estimated to still hold around 35% of this season's cumin stock, while the carryover stock at the start of the new season is expected to be about 20 lakh bags. The cumin market anticipates improved export demand post-Diwali, with exports likely to grow in November-December. Production estimates indicate a 10% decrease, with a 10-15% decline in cultivation area in Rajasthan. Indian cumin remains the most affordable globally, currently priced at $3,050 per tonne, compared to Chinese cumin, which is priced $200-$250 higher. This price advantage is expected to attract several countries, including China, to Indian cumin, bolstering the export market. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have spurred increased export orders from Gujarat, a key cumin-producing state. Between July and September, cumin exports reached 52,022 metric tonnes, marking a 128% year-on-year rise. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) data also showed strong exports in April-August 2024, with shipments up by 61.44% year-on-year to 103,614.46 tonnes. In August 2024, exports were 12,544.44 tonnes, an 88.53% increase over August 2023. However, exports dropped by 27.92% from July 2024’s high volume of 17,403.93 tonnes. On the technical front, Jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 14.23% to 1,902 contracts, and prices up by 135 rupees. Currently, Jeera has support at 24,900, with potential to test 24,530 if broken, while resistance is positioned at 25,650, with a move above possibly leading to testing 26,030.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24530-26030.
* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped as arrival has increased.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25406.05 Rupees dropped by -0.25 percent.

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