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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by 0.2% at 159080 as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and persistent inflation concerns continued to influence investor sentiment. Markets reacted cautiously after US President Donald Trump signaled possible progress toward a peace agreement with Iran, though traders remained skeptical about any near-term resolution. At the same time, stronger-than-expected US inflation data reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and revived speculation that the Fed could still consider a rate hike before the end of 2026. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming FOMC minutes and flash US PMI data for further direction on monetary policy and economic activity. Despite short-term pressure, underlying demand fundamentals for gold remain supportive. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate for central bank gold purchases higher, now expecting average buying of around 60 tonnes per month through 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and reserve diversification trends. JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 but maintained a longer-term bullish outlook, targeting gold near $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 as investment demand improves in the second half of the year. In India, gold discounts widened sharply after the government increased import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, significantly reducing jewellery demand and boosting scrap supplies. Dealers offered discounts of up to $207 per ounce over official domestic prices. However, investment demand in India remained strong, with World Gold Council data showing investment demand rising 52% year-on-year during the March quarter, surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 6.38% to settle at 6487 while prices fell by 321 rupees. Gold is getting support at 158270, below which prices could test 157455 levels, while resistance is seen at 160050, with a move above likely to test 161015.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 157455-161015.

*  Gold dropped as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and persistent inflation concerns weighed on sentiment.

*  Trump says "good chance" of nuclear deal with Iran

*  Traders see 38% chance of a US interest rate hike this year

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by 2.36% at 270119 as persistent inflation concerns and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates weighed heavily on precious metals sentiment. Markets remained cautious after US President Donald Trump hinted at possible progress toward a peace agreement with Iran, though investors continued to doubt that a resolution to the Middle East conflict was close. Since the escalation of geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices have intensified inflation fears globally, strengthening expectations that central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance for longer. Stronger US inflation data has further reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 and revived speculation about a possible rate hike before year-end. Traders are now awaiting the latest FOMC minutes and flash US PMI data for additional guidance on economic conditions and monetary policy direction. Silver fundamentals remain mixed despite the recent correction. UBS lowered its full-year silver investment demand forecast to 300 million ounces from over 400 million ounces and sharply reduced its projected global silver deficit to around 60–70 million ounces from nearly 300 million ounces previously. However, physical demand from China remained exceptionally strong. China imported around 836 metric tons of silver in March, nearly three times the historical average for the month, supported by aggressive retail investment demand and stockpiling from the photovoltaic sector ahead of tax rebate changes. Chinese domestic silver premiums also remained elevated, encouraging global arbitrage flows into the country. In India, authorities imposed fresh restrictions on silver imports to control rising shipments and reduce pressure on the rupee. The restrictions cover silver bars and semi-manufactured forms, which accounted for over 90% of total imports last year. Despite these measures, investment demand and silver ETF inflows continue to remain robust. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 5.09% to settle at 9101 while prices declined by 6532 rupees. Silver is getting support at 265145, below which prices could test 260170 levels, while resistance is seen at 275880, with a move above likely to test 281640.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 260170-281640.

* Silver fell pressured by inflation fears and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates.

* Markets reacted cautiously to President Donald Trump’s remarks hinting at possible progress toward a peace agreement with Iran

* Investors are now awaiting the latest FOMC minutes and flash US PMI readings for additional signals on the outlook for monetary policy.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil yesterday settled up by 1.04% at 10027 as ongoing geopolitical tensions and stalled US-Iran peace negotiations continued to support prices. Market sentiment remained firm after reports indicated that shipping activity through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remained effectively disrupted, while disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program continued to prevent any diplomatic breakthrough. Additional support came after the US issued a waiver allowing the sale of previously loaded Russian crude cargoes, helping ease immediate supply concerns but failing to offset broader fears surrounding Middle East energy flows. Further bullish sentiment emerged after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the United States would replenish more oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve than it releases, signaling long-term demand support from government purchases. Iraq also highlighted the importance of uninterrupted energy flows, reporting exports of 10 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz in April while targeting production capacity of 5 million barrels per day through future cooperation with OPEC. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping jointly emphasized the need to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for global energy trade. Fundamentally, US inventory data remained supportive for crude prices. US crude inventories declined by 4.306 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels, exceeding expectations for a 2.1 million barrel draw. Gasoline inventories also dropped sharply by 4.084 million barrels, reflecting improving fuel demand, while refinery utilization increased. However, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million bpd previously, citing economic uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict. Despite this, OPEC raised its 2027 demand growth outlook, expecting stronger recovery in consumption trends. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 7.1% to settle at 16405 while prices gained 103 rupees. Crudeoil is getting support at 9902, below which prices could test 9777 levels, while resistance is seen at 10151, with a move above likely to test 10275.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9777-10275.

* Crude oil gains as US-Iran peace talks stalled and shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.

* Trump said he had paused a planned resumption of attacks on Iran

* Iran seeks lifting of sanctions, release of funds and end to US blockade

Naturalgas

Naturalgas yesterday settled up by 2.36% at 299.4 amid expectations of stronger cooling demand and continued declines in US gas production. Weather forecasts indicated above-normal temperatures across large parts of the southern and eastern United States through midweek, increasing demand from power utilities for air conditioning usage. The hotter weather outlook supported sentiment in the natural gas market as electricity providers are expected to consume more gas for power generation during the peak cooling period. On the supply side, production remained under pressure as several energy companies, including EQT, continued curtailing output due to persistently weak spot market prices. Lower domestic production levels provided additional support to prices. Meanwhile, flows to major US LNG export facilities eased from the record monthly average of 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to seasonal maintenance activities at facilities including Golden Pass and Freeport LNG. However, market sentiment improved after reports suggested that three US LNG cargoes are expected to arrive in China during June, marking the first such shipments since February 2025 and signaling a possible recovery in export demand. Inventory data remained broadly neutral. US energy firms injected 85 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week ended May 8, matching market expectations and remaining close to the five-year average build of 84 bcf. Total gas inventories rose to 2.290 trillion cubic feet, standing 2.3% above last year’s levels and 6.5% above the five-year seasonal average. The US Energy Information Administration projected record gas production growth over the coming years, forecasting dry gas output to rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115 bcfd in 2027, mainly driven by increased production from the Permian and Haynesville basins. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 6.52% to settle at 24356 while prices gained 6.9 rupees. Naturalgas is getting support at 292.6, below which prices could test 285.9 levels, while resistance is seen at 303.2, with a move above likely to test 307.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 285.9-307.1.

* Natural gas rose amid hotter weather forecasts and falling output.

* High temperatures are expected across much of the southern and eastern US through midweek, potentially boosting gas demand.

* Production continued to decline, as some energy companies, such as EQT, curtailed output in response to persistently weak spot prices.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by 0.79% at 1337.55 as concerns over weakening demand sentiment intensified following softer-than-expected economic data from China and elevated crude oil prices. China’s industrial production increased by 4.1% in April on a yearly basis, slowing sharply from 5.7% growth in March and missing market expectations of 5.9%. The weaker industrial activity data from the world’s largest copper consumer raised concerns over near-term demand prospects and pressured copper prices. Market sentiment was also cautious as several major Chinese copper smelters met government officials ahead of annual negotiations with global miners regarding processing fees beginning in July. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to ongoing supply-side concerns and tightening inventories. Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 0.4% from the previous week, while the Yangshan copper premium surged 260% since February, reflecting strong import demand in China. China’s refined copper imports are expected to rise during the second quarter due to firm consumption and reduced domestic output caused by smelter maintenance. Supply concerns also persisted after Chile’s copper production declined nearly 6% during the first quarter of 2026, while Freeport-McMoRan maintained expectations for full production recovery at the Grasberg mine only by the end of 2027. The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February compared to 34,000 tons in January. The organization now forecasts a surplus of 96,000 tons in 2026 and 377,000 tons in 2027 amid slower global demand growth and increased secondary supply. However, strong investment in China’s power grid infrastructure, where spending rose 37% during January–March 2026, continues to support long-term copper demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 0.87% to settle at 9205 while prices fell by 10.7 rupees. Copper is getting support at 1332, below which prices could test 1326.5 levels, while resistance is seen at 1345.6, with a move above likely to test 1353.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1326.5-1353.7.

* Copper prices fell as worries about demand were reinforced by weak economic data from top consumer China and high oil prices.

* China's industrial production data rose 4.1% in April from a year earlier, compared with a 5.7% rise in March.

* Chinese data had triggered a further unwinding of long positions – bets on higher prices – held by funds and traders.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 366.3, supported by tightening global supply conditions following major production disruptions in key producing regions. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, after a fire damaged critical infrastructure. This disruption came shortly after Glencore-owned Kazzinc reported reduced operations at its zinc and lead plants in Kazakhstan following an explosion. These incidents further tightened an already constrained market, as the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had earlier projected a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tons for the year. Additional support came from declining zinc concentrate treatment charges and falling port inventories in China, reflecting tightening raw material availability. According to SMM data, zinc concentrate inventories at Chinese ports declined by 12,100 metric tons week-on-week, reinforcing concerns over concentrate shortages. Zinc inventories on the London Metal Exchange remained low at 110,875 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption, highlighting constrained supply conditions. However, upside remained limited as the cash LME zinc contract continued trading at a discount of $19 per ton to the three-month contract, indicating no immediate spot market tightness. Market sentiment also received support from China’s commitment to maintaining loose monetary policy and strengthening financial support for domestic demand and technology sectors. However, supply recovery prospects capped gains after Swedish miner Boliden announced plans to resume production at its Garpenberg zinc mine during the second quarter. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 tons in January compared to a deficit of 75,100 tons in December. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 4.14% to settle at 2084 while prices gained 1.15 rupees. Zinc is getting support at 363.9, below which prices could test 361.6 levels, while resistance is seen at 368.2, with a move above likely to test 370.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 361.6-370.2.

* Zinc prices rose supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* Zinc stocks on the LME are at 110,875 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption.

* The International Lead and Zinc Study Group had expected there to be a 19,000 ton deficit in the refined zinc market this year.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.84% at 384.4, supported by severe supply disruptions from the Middle East, a region accounting for nearly 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity and around 25% of non-Chinese supply. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted aluminium shipments to major consuming regions including the United States and Europe, while also restricting the flow of raw materials to Middle Eastern smelters. Supply concerns intensified further after direct attacks on major refining facilities delayed the recovery of regional production capacity, with Emirates Global Aluminium’s flagship plant expected to take nearly a year to fully recover, while Bahrain’s ALBA operations remain suspended. Market tightness was also reflected in the sharp rise in aluminium backwardation. The premium for cash aluminium contracts over three-month futures surged to a 19-year high of around $84 per ton, indicating strong near-term supply shortages. Japanese aluminium premiums for April–June shipments also climbed to $350–353 per ton, the highest in 11 years, highlighting tightening physical availability. JP Morgan forecast a 1.9 million ton primary aluminium deficit in 2026 due to a projected 2.4 million ton disruption to Middle East supply, while BOFA advanced its $4,000 per ton aluminium price forecast to the fourth quarter of 2026. China’s aluminium market remained active despite strong domestic production. China’s aluminium output rose 3.1% year-on-year to 3.87 million tons in April, while exports surged 15% during the month as overseas supply shortages supported shipments. However, inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 3.3% from the previous week, limiting sharper gains. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s aluminium exports more than doubled in March to 88,554 metric tons, the highest since November 2023. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 0.14% to settle at 2776 while prices gained 3.2 rupees. Aluminium is getting support at 380.1, below which prices could test 375.8 levels, while resistance is seen at 387.6, with a move above likely to test 390.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 375.8-390.8.

* Aluminium rose propelled higher by disrupted supplies from the Middle East, which houses 9% of global smelting capacity.

* The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also stalled shipments of aluminium to the United States and Europe.

* Expectations of large deficits have created backwardations or premiums for nearby aluminium contracts against those with longer maturities.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.98% at 15906, supported by tightening arrivals and persistent quality concerns across major producing regions. Arrivals in key mandis of Maharashtra and Telangana have remained below normal for the peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze. Moisture-related crop damage and rhizome rot in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-quality turmeric. In major trading hubs such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists continue to hold back stocks, expecting prices to move beyond ?18,000 per quintal. High-grade “Salem Fali” turmeric is already commanding premiums of up to ?20,000 per quintal in select markets. However, upside momentum remained capped as daily arrivals accelerated in several mandis, creating temporary supply pressure. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to raise funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, while late-harvested high-moisture turmeric is witnessing aggressive discounting due to inferior quality. Profit booking by traders and stockists who accumulated positions earlier in March also weighed on prices. Export logistics remain affected by lingering Middle East tensions, leading some overseas buyers to delay purchases. Fundamentally, the market remains supported by lower carry-forward stocks estimated near 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last year. Additional support came from growing EU demand for IPM-certified turmeric and steady buying inquiries from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric. The Agriculture Ministry’s revised production estimate of 1.140 million tons and concerns over a potentially below-normal 2026 monsoon have further strengthened long-term sentiment. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 0.45% to settle at 19925 while prices gained 154 rupees. Turmeric is getting support at 15784, below which prices could test 15662 levels, while resistance is seen at 15994, with a move above likely to test 16082.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15662-16082.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture (rhizome rot) in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly this week to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15475.45 Rupees dropped by -0.38 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.1% at 19485, supported by concerns over crop quality and weather-related disruptions in major producing regions. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms across Rajasthan damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising fears over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” jeera. Unseasonal rains across North-West India also delayed drying and processing activities, creating temporary supply disruptions. Additionally, the availability of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stocks remains lower than last year, which continues to support premium pricing in the physical market. However, gains remained limited as fresh crop arrivals from Rajasthan increased sharply, easing concerns about near-term supply tightness. Favorable weather conditions allowed harvesting activities to progress faster than expected, resulting in a significant supply spike instead of the anticipated staggered arrivals. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to raise liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, maintaining steady selling pressure in spot markets. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized near 28,500 bags, contributing to a visible supply glut and limiting upside momentum. Fundamentally, the market continues to draw support from lower production estimates. Jeera production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48–50 lakh bags. Blight disease in Gujarat and lower acreage have also impacted crop quality and yields. Meanwhile, expectations of stronger Chinese demand and reduced production in competing countries such as China, Syria, and Turkey are supporting market sentiment. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 0.44% to settle at 10986 while prices gained 20 rupees. Jeera is getting support at 19120, below which prices could test 18760 levels, while resistance is seen at 19720, with a move above likely to test 19960.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18760-19960.

* Jeera gained as recent thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan have damaged the standing crop at the harvest stage, leading to fears of lower supply.

* Sudden unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed the drying and processing of the new crop, creating a temporary supply gap.

* While stocks exist, the percentage of high-quality "Sortex" grade carryover is lower than last year, supporting premium pricing.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19750.3 Rupees gained by 0.1 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views