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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 1.59% at 152132, supported by easing inflation concerns after signs of possible diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran weakened the dollar and crude oil prices. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that an agreement with Iran may be nearing completion and announced a temporary pause in operations escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest the White House is close to finalizing a memorandum with Iran that could include enhanced UN inspections, restrictions on uranium enrichment for 12–15 years, and gradual sanctions relief in exchange for curbing Iran’s nuclear activities. The potential easing of geopolitical tensions reduced concerns over prolonged energy-driven inflation pressures, helping gold recover after facing significant selling pressure during the conflict period. Physical demand trends remained mixed across major consuming regions. In India, gold demand stayed subdued due to volatile international prices and weakness in the rupee, with dealers offering discounts ranging from $5 to premiums of $9 per ounce over official domestic prices. Meanwhile, Chinese premiums strengthened to $16–$20 per ounce amid stockpiling ahead of the May Day holiday. The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand rose 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 metric tons in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong investment demand and continued central bank purchases. Demand for bars and coins surged 42% year-on-year to 473.6 tons, with China recording a record quarterly demand of 206.9 tons. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling by 6.16% to 9209 while prices gained 2379 rupees. Gold is finding immediate support at 151530, with further downside support at 150920. Resistance is seen at 152820, and a move above this level could push prices higher towards 153500.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150920-153500.

* Gold prices climbed after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a possible peace deal may be reached with Iran.

* Trump pauses effort to escort ships in the Strait of Hormuz

* Trump says great progress made towards deal with Iran

Silver

Silver prices rallied sharply by 3.66% to settle at 253265, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that reduced inflation concerns and weakened crude oil prices. Market sentiment improved after reports indicated progress toward a possible agreement between the U.S. and Iran. According to Axios, the White House is nearing a deal that could end the conflict and restart nuclear negotiations. The proposed agreement includes enhanced UN inspections, restrictions on uranium enrichment for 12–15 years, and gradual sanctions relief for Iran. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump also paused escalation plans, citing progress in diplomatic discussions, which further supported risk sentiment across financial markets. On the economic front, U.S. labor market data remained relatively strong, with private businesses adding 109,000 jobs in April 2026, exceeding market expectations of 99,000 and marking the strongest increase since January 2025. However, weaker housing sector data capped optimism as U.S. building permits fell 11.4% month-on-month to an annualized pace of 1.363 million units in March. Meanwhile, expectations of tighter monetary policy remained elevated, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating around a 35% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end, significantly higher than levels seen last week. Physical silver demand from China continued to provide major support to prices. China imported a record 836 metric tons of silver in March, nearly three times the historical seasonal average, driven by aggressive retail investment demand and heavy stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of tax rebate changes. Strong domestic premiums encouraged global shipments into China. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 15.97% to 7011 while prices surged by 8949 rupees. Silver is getting support at 249920, with further downside support at 246570. Resistance is seen at 256015, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 258760.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 246570-258760.

* Silver jumped amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.

* US said its offensive operations against Iran had concluded and announced a temporary pause in “Project Freedom.”

* Private businesses in the US added a net 109,000 jobs in April 2026, the largest increase since January 2025.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices witnessed a sharp decline of 7.02% to settle at 9017 after reports suggested that the U.S. and Iran are moving closer toward a diplomatic agreement to end the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Market sentiment weakened significantly after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary suspension of “Project Freedom,” the military operation aimed at escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing meaningful progress in negotiations with Iran. The possibility of easing geopolitical tensions reduced fears of prolonged supply disruptions from the key oil transit route, triggering aggressive selling pressure across energy markets. Despite the sharp decline, inventory data continued to reflect tightening supply conditions in the United States. According to API figures, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week ended May 1, marking the third consecutive weekly decline. Gasoline inventories dropped by 6.1 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 4.6 million barrels, indicating firm fuel demand. Earlier EIA data also showed crude inventories declining by 6.233 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels, while net crude imports fell sharply by 1.968 million barrels per day. U.S. crude exports surged to a record 6.438 million barrels per day, highlighting strong overseas demand for American oil supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production rose to 13.63 million barrels per day in February, the highest level since December. OPEC also revised down its second-quarter global oil demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day due to the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining sharply by 20.42% to 11437 while prices dropped by 681 rupees. Crude oil is finding immediate support at 8384, with further downside seen at 7750. Resistance is likely near 9648, and a move above this level could push prices towards 10278.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7750-10278.

* Crude oil dropped after reports that the US and Iran are nearing a deal to end the conflict.

* Crude oil inventories fell for a third week, while gasoline and distillate stocks also declined.

* U.S. field production of crude oil rose to 13.63 million barrels per day in February, the highest since December

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 3.22% to settle at 258.4, pressured by weaker short-term demand forecasts and reduced gas flows to LNG export terminals during the seasonal spring maintenance period. Pipeline deliveries to LNG export plants dropped to the lowest level since late January as maintenance activities temporarily reduced export capacity, leaving more natural gas available within the domestic U.S. market. The softer export demand outlook combined with expectations of moderate weather conditions over the next two weeks weighed heavily on prices. Despite the near-term weakness, the market continues to monitor the gradual transition toward stronger cooling demand as summer approaches. On the supply side, persistently low prices have forced several producers to reduce drilling activity and temporarily curb production. Major producers, including EQT Corporation, have scaled back output to avoid selling gas at depressed price levels. According to financial group LSEG, average gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states slipped to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day in May, compared with 109.5 bcfd in April and the record high of 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025. Storage data remained largely in line with market expectations. U.S. energy firms injected 79 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week ended April 24, lower than the 105 bcf build recorded during the same period last year but above the five-year average increase of 63 bcf. Total inventories rose to 2.142 trillion cubic feet, standing 7.7% above the seasonal average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected natural gas production to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, while LNG exports are expected to continue expanding steadily. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 25.39% to 27661 while prices declined by 8.6 rupees. Natural gas is getting support at 253.6, with further downside seen at 248.9. Resistance is likely near 265, and a move above this level could push prices towards 271.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 248.9-271.7.

* Natural gas fell on lowered demand forecasts for the next two weeks, with gas flows to LNG export plants expected to drop.

* Pipeline flows to LNG export terminals dropped to the lowest level since late January due to routine spring maintenance.

* Companies such as EQT Corporation have scaled back drilling or temporarily curtailed production to avoid selling at weak prices.

Copper

Copper prices settled higher by 1.6% at 1308.2, supported by easing geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled progress toward a possible peace agreement with Iran. Improved risk sentiment boosted industrial metals, while China’s return from holidays also supported buying interest across the base metals complex. The U.S. reportedly submitted a memorandum aimed at ending the conflict with Iran and warned of renewed military action if the proposal is rejected. The administration also indicated it would immediately facilitate energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached, helping ease fears of prolonged disruptions to global trade and manufacturing activity. Copper prices also remained supported by ongoing supply concerns linked to disruptions in sulphur flows caused by the Middle East conflict. Chile, the world’s top copper producer, faces refining risks as reduced sulphur availability prompted China to curb exports of sulphuric acid, a critical input used by nearly half of Chile’s copper refining sector. In addition, long-term demand optimism remained firm as major technology companies continued expanding investments in data centers and power infrastructure, strengthening expectations for higher copper consumption in electrification and grid technologies. However, broader supply-demand fundamentals remained relatively balanced to bearish. The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February, widening from a 34,000-ton surplus in January. The ICSG now expects the global copper market to remain in surplus through 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and rising secondary production. Meanwhile, China’s unwrought copper imports declined 10.9% year-on-year in March, although refined copper production in the country increased 8.7%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 0.61% to 11925 while prices gained 20.65 rupees. Copper is getting support at 1297.5, with further downside support at 1286.7. Resistance is likely near 1316, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1323.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1286.7-1323.7.

* Copper rises as Trump signals possible Iran peace deal, China resumes trade

* The US stated it submitted a memorandum to end the war with Iran and threatened new attacks should peace not be accepted.

* Chile faces supply risks as the conflict disrupted sulphur flows to China, prompting Beijing to curb exports of sulphuric acid.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled marginally higher by 0.26% at 346.55, supported by easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran along with tightening near-term supply conditions. Market sentiment remained firm as falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango reflected stronger nearby demand. Lower treatment charges for zinc concentrate continued to indicate tight raw material availability, while Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 1.8% from the previous week. SMM also reported a sharp 12,100 mt weekly drop in port inventories of zinc concentrate, reinforcing concerns over limited feedstock availability. Supply-side disruptions from ongoing mine closures and operational issues continued to underpin prices. However, upside remained capped after Swedish miner Boliden confirmed that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine would resume in the second quarter. Additional supply relief is also expected from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project. Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting announced plans to raise refined zinc production by 3.2% year-on-year to 108,200 metric tons during the first half of FY 2026/27. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January from a deficit of 75,100 tons in December. Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus this year due to rising mine supply, though it anticipates slower supply growth in 2027 and 2028, potentially tightening markets outside China. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling by 5.16% to 1,968 lots while prices gained 0.9 rupees. Zinc is finding support at 344.3, with further downside possible toward 341.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at 349.5, and a breakout above this level may push prices toward 352.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 341.9-352.3.

* Zinc rose amid ease in US Iran tension and tightening near-term supply.

* The decline in LME inventories, alongside a narrowing Cash-3M contango, signaled reduced prompt availability.

* Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to drop and port-side concentrate inventories fell sharply.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled lower by 1.27% at 369.75 amid hopes of easing supply disruptions from the Gulf region following signs of improving operational conditions in the Middle East. Pressure on prices also emerged after reports indicated that Emirates Global Aluminium’s Jebel Ali smelter in the UAE was operating closer to normal levels after earlier stress caused by regional conflict. However, downside remained limited as strong manufacturing data from China continued to support the demand outlook. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 52.2 in April 2026 from 50.8 in March, marking the strongest expansion since December 2020, supported by robust growth in output and new orders. Supply concerns still remained active in the market due to expectations of prolonged disruptions in the Middle East. JP Morgan forecast a 1.9 million ton global primary aluminium deficit in 2026 due to a potential 2.4 million ton supply hit from the region. BOFA also advanced its $4,000 per metric ton aluminium price forecast to the fourth quarter of 2026. Japanese aluminium premiums for April-June shipments surged to the highest level in 11 years at $350-$353 per ton, reflecting tighter supply conditions. Indonesia’s aluminium exports more than doubled in March to 88,554 metric tons, the highest since November 2023, while China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 6.9% year-on-year. China’s primary aluminium production increased 2.7% to 3.85 million tons in March, while global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.302 million tons, according to the IAI. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 5.24% to settle at 3,090 lots while prices dropped by 4.75 rupees. Aluminium is finding support at 365.5, with further downside possible toward 361.3. Resistance is seen at 375.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 380.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 361.3-380.9.

* Aluminium prices slipped on hopes of easing supply disruptions from the Gulf.

* Indonesia's March aluminium exports hit 28 – month high as metal flows to US

* BOFA brought forward its $4,000 per metric ton aluminium price forecast to Q426 from the second quarter of 2027.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 1.24% to settle at Rs16,498, supported by tight arrivals and quality concerns across key producing regions in Maharashtra and Telangana. Lower-than-normal inflows during the peak season, combined with moisture-related issues such as rhizome rot, have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-quality turmeric. Strong premiums for high-grade “Salem Fali” varieties, trading near Rs20,000 per quintal, have also supported overall market sentiment. However, gains remain capped as arrivals have recently increased in major mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli, creating a temporary supply glut. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to meet liquidity needs ahead of the Kharif sowing season, adding near-term selling pressure. Additionally, late-harvested, high-moisture produce is being sold at discounted rates, particularly for average-quality lots. Profit booking by traders who accumulated stocks at lower levels has further limited upside. Fundamentally, supply conditions remain relatively tight, with carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season’s levels. Export demand has remained steady, with shipments during Apr–Feb 2026 rising marginally by 1% year-on-year, while imports declined sharply by 40%, tightening domestic availability. Additional support is coming from demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the European Union and consistent buying interest from Bangladesh. Lower production estimates at 1.14 million tonnes and concerns over a below-normal monsoon are also building a positive long-term outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 10.03% to 12,020 lots while prices gained Rs202. Immediate support is seen at Rs16,344, with further downside toward Rs16,192. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs16,614, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs16,732.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16192-16732.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15725.15 Rupees gained by 0.39 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices ended higher by 1.88% at 20340, supported by supply-side disruptions and quality concerns in the physical market. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms across Rajasthan during the critical harvesting phase have damaged standing crops, raising concerns over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” quality. Additionally, unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed drying and processing activities, creating a temporary supply gap and tightening near-term availability. The proportion of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stocks is also reported to be lower compared to last year, which has further supported price premiums in the spot market. However, the upside remained capped due to a steady increase in fresh crop arrivals from key producing regions in Rajasthan. Favorable weather conditions allowed farmers to accelerate harvesting, resulting in a supply spike rather than a staggered arrival pattern. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, adding persistent selling pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, reflecting ample short-term supply. On the production front, estimates indicate a sharp 27% decline in Gujarat output due to lower acreage and yields, while disease outbreaks have further impacted crop quality. Export data showed a 15% year-on-year decline during Apr–Feb 2026, although monthly exports improved. Globally, lower production estimates in China and steady output from other regions provide mixed cues. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 9.67% to 6555 while prices gained 375 rupees. Jeera is finding support at 19980, with further downside towards 19600. Resistance is seen at 20560, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards 20760.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19600-20760.

* Jeera gains as recent thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan have damaged the standing crop.

* Sudden unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed the drying and processing of the new crop, creating a temporary supply gap.

* While stocks exist, the percentage of high-quality "Sortex" grade carryover is lower than last year, supporting premium pricing

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20269.75 Rupees dropped by -0.42 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views