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Gold

Gold prices surged sharply, settling up 2.19% at 145,639 to a fresh record high, driven by strong safe-haven demand. Buying intensified after President Trump announced new tariffs on several European countries, raising concerns of an escalating trade conflict and potential retaliation from the EU. Ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela and Iran, along with renewed doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence, further reinforced bullion’s appeal. Strength in gold this year follows an already solid 2025 performance, highlighting sustained investor preference for defensive assets. LBMA data showed gold holdings in London vaults rose 2.24% month-on-month to 9,106 tonnes in December, indicating continued institutional accumulation. Major global banks have turned increasingly bullish: Commerzbank, HSBC, and UBS now see gold approaching or testing the $5,000/oz mark during 2026, citing geopolitical risks, rising debt, dollar weakness, and elevated volatility. Central bank demand remains a critical pillar, with China extending its gold-buying streak to 14 months and global official purchases accelerating into late 2025. Physical demand showed mixed regional trends. Indian demand stayed muted amid record prices, while China traded near parity ahead of the Lunar New Year. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, reflected in a 0.83% drop in open interest alongside a sharp price rise. Gold has support at 144,050, with a further downside test near 142,460 if breached. On the upside, resistance stands at 146,500, and a decisive move above could open the path toward 147,360.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142460-147360.

* Gold rose as investors flocked to safe-haven assets following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on European countries.

* Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European nations starting February 1, which could rise to 25% in June.

* Gold continued to rise aided by safe haven flows amid geopolitical tensions, alongside renewed concerns over Fed’s independence.

Silver

Silver prices witnessed an exceptional rally, settling up sharply by 7.82% at 310,275 to register a fresh record high. The surge was driven by strong safe-haven buying after US President Donald Trump threatened fresh tariffs on eight European nations, reviving trade-war concerns and prompting discussions of retaliatory measures within the European Union. Although silver had faced pressure earlier after the US administration excluded critical minerals, including silver, from immediate tariffs, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and structural supply tightness supported prices. Fundamentally, silver continues to benefit from persistent supply deficits and periodic market squeezes, particularly in London. As of end-December 2025, silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes, underlining continued investor accumulation. Chinese inventories have fallen to decade lows, with record exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October, intensifying concerns over global liquidity. On the outlook, Commerzbank sees silver at $95/oz by end-2026, while HSBC raised its medium-term forecasts, citing a weaker dollar and mild supply-demand deficits, though it cautioned on elevated volatility and near-term sustainability. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 5.27% while prices rose Rs 22,513. Silver is currently supported near 298,605, and a break below could test 286,930. On the upside, resistance is seen at 316,450, with a sustained move above opening the door toward 322,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 286930-322620.

* Silver jumped, hitting a new record high after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on eight European nations.

* European leaders discussed potential retaliatory measures, including reviving last year’s plan to levy tariffs on US goods.

* Structural supply deficits also made silver a critical asset, with the London market experiencing squeezes over the past year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined modestly yesterday, with the benchmark settling down 0.5% at 5,422, as recent civil unrest in Iran eased and lowered the prospect of a U.S. military response that could have disrupted Middle Eastern supply. Reduced geopolitical risk premiums weighed on sentiment, tempering earlier volatility linked to Iran tensions. Production disruptions also emerged regionally, with Tengizchevroil (Chevron-led) temporarily halting output at the Tengiz and Korolev fields due to power distribution issues, which provided intermittent support. On the supply and demand front, the U.S. EIA’s January Short Term Energy Outlook highlights that U.S. crude production, after hitting record highs in 2025, is expected to moderate through 2026 and 2027, as drilling activity adjusts and inventories remain elevated. Global inventories are building faster than demand growth, a structural factor pressuring prices despite intermittent supply risk events. U.S. crude stocks rose sharply by 3.4 million barrels in the latest weekly data, exceeding consensus expectations and reinforcing bearish near-term fundamentals.  Technically, fresh selling pressure has emerged, marked by a 4.71% increase in open interest while prices edged lower by Rs 27. Crude oil currently has immediate support at 5,371, with potential range extension toward 5,319 on a break below that level. On the upside, resistance lies near 5,455, and a sustained move above could test 5,487.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5319-5487.

* Crude oil fell as civil unrest in Iran subsided, lowering the chance of a U.S. attack that could disrupt supply.

* Kazakh oil producer Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron said that it had temporarily halted production.

* U.S. crude production will ease in 2026 and 2027 after reaching a record high in 2025, while petroleum demand will hold steady this year.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices witnessed a sharp surge, settling up by 18.69% at 332.8, as weather forecasts for late January turned decisively colder. Updated outlooks indicate strong Arctic air intrusions across the U.S. East Coast and Midwest from January 26 through February 1, significantly boosting expectations for heating demand and power generation. Grid operators including PJM Interconnection and MISO issued alerts to utilities to prepare for elevated consumption, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Prospects of increased spot LNG buying from Asia amid the cold snap further supported prices, although elevated domestic production levels and slightly lower LNG export flows capped part of the upside. From a supply perspective, recent storage data remained mixed. U.S. utilities withdrew 71 bcf of gas for the week ended January 9, well below market expectations and substantially lower than last year’s draw, reflecting the impact of earlier warm weather. Total inventories stand at 3.185 tcf, marginally above both year-ago levels and the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. natural gas production to reach record highs through 2026 and 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to ease, even as LNG exports continue to expand steadily. Technically, the market is witnessing aggressive short covering, highlighted by a steep 23.44% decline in open interest alongside a Rs 52.4 price jump. Natural gas has immediate support at 298.3, with a further downside risk toward 263.8 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at 352.6, and a sustained move above could propel prices toward 372.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 263.8-372.4.

* Natural gas rose after the weather outlook for late January shifted colder.

* Forecasts showed blasts of Arctic air sweeping the East Coast and Midwest from January 26 to February 1.

* The combination of rising domestic consumption expectations and alerts from grid operators underpins the price gains.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, settling up 1.01% at 1,302.5, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar amid concerns over the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against European nations. Market sentiment was also shaped by mixed signals from China, where 2025 GDP growth met the official 5% target, but persistent weakness in the property sector was underscored by further declines in new home prices. Despite these headwinds, expectations of additional fiscal and financial stimulus to boost domestic consumption in China lent support to demand prospects. Supply-side factors remained influential. Copper availability in LME registered warehouses fell sharply by 22% to a six-month low as metal continued to flow into the U.S. ahead of potential tariff decisions, tightening supply elsewhere. This has lifted LME spreads, with the cash premium over three-month copper rising to a one-month high. Mine output disruptions also offered support, with production declines reported at Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine, although Chile’s overall copper output is expected to increase in 2026. In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose sharply and have reached an eight-year high for this period, highlighting regional imbalances. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, reflected in a 2.79% drop in open interest alongside a Rs 13 price gain. Copper has support at 1,292.3, with a break lower opening downside toward 1,282.1. Resistance stands at 1,310.5, and a move above could test 1,318.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1282.1-1318.5.

* Copper climbed on concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s latest tariff threats against European nations.

* Investors also assessed mixed economic signals from China, where full-year GDP growth in 2025 met Beijing’s 5% target.

* Copper availability in the London Metal Exchange's registered warehouses fell by 22% to the lowest in six months.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher yesterday, settling up 0.48% at 314.3, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and better-than-expected macroeconomic data from China. The dollar index softened after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on imports from eight European nations, boosting base metals priced in dollars. Sentiment was also aided by Chinese data showing industrial output growth accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year in December, while fourth-quarter GDP growth slightly exceeded market expectations, providing reassurance on near-term demand. However, gains remained capped amid mixed fundamentals. Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% week-on-week, reflecting ample near-term supply, while the LME cash zinc contract traded at a $14 per ton discount to the three-month forward, signaling a relatively comfortable spot market. China’s zinc output rose sharply in November, up 13.3% year-on-year, reinforcing concerns of rising refined supply. At the same time, global balance data from ILZSG showed the refined zinc market moved into a sizeable surplus during the first ten months of 2025, strengthening expectations that 2026 could mark a transition from deficit to surplus conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 14.96% while prices rose marginally. Zinc has immediate support at 312.8, with a break lower exposing 311.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at 315.5, and a move above could test 316.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 311.2-316.6.

* Zinc prices rebounded on a weaker dollar and after data from China came in better than expected.

* The dollar index fell after Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on eight European nations.

* China's industrial output rose 5.2% in December from a year earlier, faster than in November and higher than expected.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher yesterday, settling up 0.35% at 317.6, supported by supply-side concerns after China effectively reached the government-mandated production capacity ceiling. Although inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose sharply by 29.2% from last week, downside remained limited as broader global fundamentals continue to point toward tightness. Prices earlier faced pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar and easing worries over potential U.S. tariffs on aluminium, while rising stocks at major Japanese ports also reflected comfortable near-term availability. On a global basis, supply-demand dynamics remain supportive. The primary aluminium market recorded a deficit of 108,700 tons in October, while the cumulative shortfall for the first ten months of the year reached 955,500 tons, as consumption exceeded production. Supply risks persist due to high energy costs, operational disruptions, and challenges in sourcing bauxite, which have suspended or constrained smelting operations in regions including Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. In China, plans by smelters to expand capacity overseas, particularly in Indonesia, continue to face regulatory and cost-related hurdles. China’s aluminium imports rebounded in December, while domestic production growth remained moderate. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, reflected in a 5.09% drop in open interest alongside a modest price gain. Aluminium has immediate support at 316.9, with a break lower exposing 316.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 318.4, and a sustained move above could test 319.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 316.3-319.3.

* Aluminium gains supported by supply concerns as China hit the government's production capacity ceiling.

* China aluminium production up 3.0 % to 3.87 mln metric tons in Dec – stats bureau

* China December aluminium imports rise 7% y/y, customs data shows

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged 3.86% to Rs 18,060, supported by persistently low arrivals and firm domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment strengthened as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced holdings, tightening near-term availability ahead of the new crop. Yield losses reported in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka due to excess rains further underpinned prices, while cautious selling and low inflows added to the upside momentum. In the spot market, Nizamabad prices rose 0.29% to Rs 16,853.4, reflecting steady physical demand. On the fundamental front, India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth. For 2025–26, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% YoY, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season’s 82.5 lakh bags, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the overall rise in availability. Unseasonal heavy rainfall impacted nearly 15% of the Marathwada area, causing 15–20% yield losses, alongside quality risks such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin. Export fundamentals remain supportive, with April–October 2025 exports up 2.05% YoY, while imports fell sharply 48.05%, tightening supply further. Demand from Europe and the USA remains strong, aided by limited availability from Indonesia due to quality issues. The market is under short covering, with open interest down 1.26%. Support is seen at Rs 17,520, below which prices could test Rs 16,982. Resistance stands at Rs 18,396, and a decisive break may open the path toward Rs 18,734.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16982-18734.

* Turmeric seen supported as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16853.4 Rupees gained by 0.29 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices surged sharply, settling 4.48% higher at Rs 24,590, driven primarily by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing, which have tightened near-term supply expectations. Uneven rainfall has hampered field preparation, making this one of the slowest sowing seasons in Gujarat in recent years. Jeera sowing in the state is reported at 3,98,438 hectares, down 16.31% year-on-year, reinforcing supply-side concerns. Despite the sharp rally, upside appears capped by comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand. Traders noted that export interest from Gulf countries and China has improved marginally but remains highly price-sensitive. The conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity from foreign buyers have kept overall demand muted, with current export requirements largely met from available inventories. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags may trade before season-end, leaving a sizable carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower due to reduced acreage, with national output seen at 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. Globally, lower output expectations in China and disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan offer some background support, though Indian exports remain weak. The market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.09% alongside a strong price increase. Support is placed at Rs 23,970, below which prices may test Rs 23,340. Resistance is seen at Rs 25,000, and a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs 25,400.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23340-25400.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476097 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23258.85 Rupees gained by 0.41 percent.

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