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Gold

Gold prices surged sharply, settling up 3.38% at 150,565, as renewed US–EU trade tensions and escalating geopolitical risks intensified safe-haven demand. The rally was fueled by President Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland, coupled with Denmark’s move to strengthen its military presence in the region. Expectations of monetary policy easing, strong central bank buying, and steady ETF inflows further reinforced bullish sentiment. Investors are also closely watching an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision related to the Federal Reserve’s independence, along with the delayed U.S. PCE inflation data, both of which could influence the Fed’s future rate path. Fundamentally, gold’s strength builds on exceptional gains in 2025, underpinned by persistent geopolitical tensions in regions such as Venezuela and Iran. Official-sector demand remains a key pillar, with China’s central bank extending its gold-buying streak to 14 months and global central banks accelerating purchases into late 2025, according to the World Gold Council. LBMA data showed gold holdings in London vaults rose 2.24% month-on-month to 9,106 tonnes. Major banks remain bullish, with Commerzbank, HSBC, and UBS projecting gold prices near $5,000/oz during 2026, albeit with high volatility. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest fell 4.24% while prices jumped Rs 4,926. Gold has support at 146,540, with further downside toward 142,520 if breached. On the upside, resistance stands at 153,540, and a move above could test 156,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142520-156520.

* Gold prices rose setting a new record high as renewed US-EU trade tensions strengthened demand for safe-haven assets.

* Geopolitical tensions have been at the forefront of the rally, with expectations of ‍monetary policy easing also playing a significant role.

* Investors are eyeing the delayed US PCE inflation report due later this week, which could provide more clues on Fed’s rate path.

Silver

Silver prices extended their sharp rally, settling up 4.32% at 323,672, supported by strong safe-haven demand and its designation as a critical mineral in the United States. Escalating US–Europe tensions, triggered by President Donald Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland and threats of tariffs on eight European nations, lifted interest in precious metals. Market participants also noted warnings that Europe’s large holdings of U.S. financial assets could be used as leverage in a widening trade conflict, adding to risk aversion. Fundamentally, silver continues to benefit from structural supply deficits and tight physical availability. London has experienced repeated market squeezes over the past year, while Chinese stockpiles have fallen to decade lows after record exports of more than 660 tonnes in October to ease overseas shortages. As of end-December 2025, silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes, valued at $64.4 billion, underscoring sustained investor accumulation. Major banks remain constructive on the medium-term outlook: Commerzbank sees silver at $95/oz by end-2026, while HSBC sharply raised its forecasts, citing a weaker dollar and ongoing deficits, though it cautioned that prices may remain volatile and prone to corrections. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, reflected by a 2.28% rise in open interest alongside a Rs 13,397 price increase. Silver has support at 310,780, with a break below opening downside toward 297,890. On the upside, resistance is seen at 332,280, and a sustained move above could test 340,890.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 297890-340890.

* Silver rose supported by its critical mineral designation in the U.S., and a structural market deficit.

* Support also seen as escalating US-Europe tensions over President Trump’s threats to acquire Greenland lifted safe-haven demand.

* Trump threatened eight European countries that oppose his plan with new tariffs, while European leaders weighed options for possible retaliation.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices climbed strongly yesterday, settling up 1.75% at 5,517, underpinned by firmer global economic growth expectations and a softer U.S. dollar that made dollar-priced crude more attractive for international buyers. The upturn was also supported by better-than-expected fourth-quarter Chinese GDP data and record crude import volumes into China, which reflect strong demand fundamentals from the world’s largest crude importer. Chinese crude imports rose sharply year-on-year in December and hit record highs for the full year, driven by increased refinery throughput and strategic stockpiling.  Market tightness remained evident in certain regions, with supply disruptions in the Black Sea and a temporary production halt at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field contributing to near-term risk premiums. Investors are now focused on the International Energy Agency’s upcoming monthly report for fresh insight into global oil supply and demand balances, which recently highlighted a narrowing surplus outlook as demand expectations were revised higher.  On the fundamentals, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that after reaching a record high in 2025, U.S. crude production will ease in 2026 and 2027, while petroleum demand is expected to hold steady before rising slightly, reinforcing a balanced medium-term demand trend.  Technically, the market is under fresh buying pressure, reflected by a 2% gain in open interest alongside a Rs 95 price rise. Crude oil has immediate support at 5,411, with a break below that level potentially testing 5,305. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,580, and a sustained move above could push prices toward 5,643.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5305-5643.

* Crude oil gained amid firmer global economic growth expectations and a weaker U.S. dollar.

* The oil market is also finding some support from better-than-expected fourth-quarter Chinese gross domestic product data.

* Tightness persisted in certain parts of the market, with disruptions in the Black Sea and a temporary halt at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged sharply yesterday, settling up 5.47% at 351, driven primarily by a weather-led rally as forecasts shifted toward much colder scenarios across the Northern Hemisphere. The expansion of the polar vortex has allowed Arctic air to spill deep into the central and eastern United States, significantly lifting heating demand expectations. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued a high-priority alert for extreme Arctic cold and potential winter storms through month-end, with the harshest conditions expected in the final week of January. This outlook overshadowed near-term supply concerns, even as production remains elevated and LNG export flows are marginally lower. On the data front, U.S. utilities withdrew 71 bcf of natural gas from storage in the week ended January 9, well below market expectations and sharply lower than both last year’s draw and the five-year average, reflecting earlier mild weather. Total inventories now stand at 3.185 tcf, still above both last year’s level and the seasonal norm. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. gas output to rise to fresh record highs in 2026 and 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to ease, partly offset by steady growth in LNG exports. Technically, the market is witnessing aggressive short covering, with open interest plunging 29.11% alongside a Rs 18.2 price gain. Natural gas has support at 328.3, with a break lower opening room toward 305.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 368.1, and a decisive move above could extend gains toward 385.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 305.7-385.3.

* Natural gas rose as sharply colder weather forecasts drove a weather led rally.

* Forecasts over the weekend already pointed to very cold conditions but shifted toward much colder scenarios as the polar vortex expanded.

* NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued a high priority alert for extreme Arctic cold and potential winter storms .

Copper

Copper prices eased yesterday, settling lower by 1.29% at 1285.65, weighed down by signs of softening demand from top consumer China. The Yangshan import premium, a key gauge of Chinese consumption, has halved over the past month to its lowest level since mid-2024, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose sharply by 18.3%, reinforcing near-term demand concerns. Sentiment was also influenced by China’s tighter scrutiny of high-frequency trading and the U.S. decision to defer tariffs on critical minerals. However, downside pressure was partly cushioned by persistent supply-side risks. Mine disruptions and declining ore grades continue to limit output growth in major producing regions. Peru’s copper production fell 11.2% year-on-year in November, while Chile saw weaker output from key operations, including a 12.8% drop at BHP’s Escondida mine. At the same time, copper availability outside the U.S. remains constrained as metal flows toward American warehouses ahead of potential tariffs, tightening supply elsewhere. From a broader perspective, Goldman Sachs raised its first-half 2026 copper price forecast, citing a scarcity premium despite the International Copper Study Group reporting a refined copper surplus in 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 11.46% alongside a Rs 16.85 price decline. Copper has support at 1272.2, with a break exposing 1258.6, while resistance stands at 1302.4 and then 1319 on a sustained rebound.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1258.6-1319.

* Copper eased amid signs of softening demand in top consumer China.

* The Yangshan import premium, has halved over the past month to its lowest level since mid-2024.

* Peru's copper production down 11.2% year – on – year in November

Zinc

Zinc prices softened yesterday, settling lower by 0.94% at 311.35, as renewed concerns over demand from China weighed on sentiment following a series of mixed economic indicators. Early pressure stemmed from weak signals in parts of the Chinese economy, although losses were partially contained by a weaker U.S. dollar and better-than-expected macro data. China’s industrial output grew 5.2% year-on-year in December, exceeding both November’s pace and market expectations, while fourth-quarter GDP growth also came in slightly above forecasts, offering some reassurance on underlying demand conditions. On the supply side, inventories continue to show signs of easing tightness. Zinc stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 3.3% from last week, while China’s refined zinc output jumped 13.3% year-on-year in November. However, upcoming routine maintenance shutdowns at several Chinese mines, particularly in central and southwest China, are expected to trim concentrate output and could lend some support to prices in the short term. From a broader perspective, the global zinc market is moving toward surplus. The ILZSG reported a refined zinc surplus of 76,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will mark a decisive shift from deficit to surplus. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 6.82% alongside a Rs 2.95 decline. Zinc has support at 309.5, with further downside toward 307.6, while resistance is seen at 314.1 and then 316.8 on a recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 307.6-316.8.

* Zinc dropped dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* However downside seen limited on a weaker dollar and after data from China came in better than expected.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged lower yesterday, settling down by 0.9% at 314.75, pressured by signs of improving global supply and rising inventories. Data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global primary aluminium output increased 0.5% year on year in December to 6.296 million tonnes, while China’s production rose 3.0% to 3.87 million tonnes. Inventories added to the bearish tone, with stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumping 29.2% from last week, and aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports rising 1.5% month on month to 316,800 tonnes. However, downside remained limited due to persistent supply-side constraints and a still-tight global balance. According to industry data, the global primary aluminium market was short of demand by 108,700 tonnes in October, and the cumulative supply deficit for the first ten months of the year stood at 955,500 tonnes, with consumption exceeding production. Support was also seen from China reaching its government-imposed capacity ceiling, ongoing disruptions at smelters in countries such as Iceland, Mozambique and Australia due to high energy costs and operational issues, and delays in Chinese smelter projects in Indonesia. On the trade front, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 7.1% year on year in December, while full-year imports increased 4.6%, indicating steady underlying demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 24.31% alongside a Rs 2.85 price decline. Aluminium has support at 313.7, with further downside to 312.7, while resistance is seen at 316.5 and then 318.3 on an upside move.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 312.7-318.3.

* Aluminium dropped as Global aluminium output rises 0.5% year on year in December

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 29.2% from last Friday.

* The global supply of primary aluminum was short of demand by 108,700 tons in October.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 1.55% to settle at 17,780, largely on profit booking amid expectations of higher acreage due to favourable rainfall during the current sowing season. Market sentiment has turned cautious as preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage for the 2026 harvest may rise sharply, although supply growth is expected to remain moderate because of weather irregularities and localized disease pressure. Unseasonal rains during August–September caused waterlogging and disease issues in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, impacting yields despite an expansion in planted area. However, downside remains limited as arrivals continue to stay below normal and both farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced their inventories significantly, providing a strong base ahead of new crop arrivals. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season, though lower carry-forward stocks restrict overall availability. Export fundamentals remain supportive, with shipments during April–October 2025 rising 2.05% year-on-year, while imports fell sharply, tightening domestic supply. Quality-compliant IPM produce is also expected to support export-grade demand, particularly to Europe and the U.S. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, reflected by a 0.18% rise in open interest alongside a Rs 280 price decline. Turmeric has support at 17,532, with further downside toward 17,286 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at 18,156, and a move above could test 18,534.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17286-18534.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16855.3 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.1% to settle at 24,320, largely on profit booking amid comfortable supplies and subdued export interest, with current overseas demand being met from existing stocks. Market sentiment remained cautious as traders cited the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity from foreign buyers as key factors behind the decline. In Gujarat, jeera sowing has been reported at 3,98,438 hectares, down 16.31% year-on-year, reflecting delayed sowing and uneven rainfall, which has made field preparation difficult in several regions. As a result, arrivals at Unjha, the key spot market, remain low, with superior quality cumin commanding relatively higher prices. Despite weak near-term demand, downside appears limited due to weather-related risks and tight arrivals. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, though only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season-end, leaving substantial carry-forward stocks. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, largely due to reduced sowing. Export fundamentals remain mixed, as geopolitical disruptions in other producing countries have not translated into strong buying from India, while exports during April–October 2025 fell over 13% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, indicated by a 0.41% rise in open interest alongside a Rs 270 price decline. Jeera has support at 24,040, with further downside toward 23,770 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at 24,680, and a move above could test 25,050.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23770-25050.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476097 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23209 Rupees dropped by -0.79 percent.

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