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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot Gold is expected to move lower towards $3280 as long as it trades under $3360 amid easing Middle east tension. Safe haven demand has ebbed after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, mixed comments from Fed members could provide some support to the yellow metal. Additionally, prices could find support on continues buying by gold ETF’s as its holdings rose to 1 and half year high. Moreover, forecast of negative growth in US would increase the chances of 2 rate cuts in this year and limit downside in prices.

* Spot gold is expected to remain in the range of $3280 and $3360. Only a move below $3280 it would turn weaker towards $3250. MCX Gold Aug is expected to face hurdle near Rs.98,400 and move lower towards Rs.96,200.

* MCX Silver July is expected to move in the band of Rs.103,800 and Rs.106,500 with negative bias. A move below Rs.103,800 would open the doors towards Rs.102,500.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are likely to hold support and move higher amid softer dollar and improved risk sentiments. Easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East would improve risk sentiments and support prices. Moreover, depleting inventory levels in China and LME would provide support to prices. Widening LME copper backwardation clearly indicates tightness in the market. Meanwhile, Chinese import premiums have dropped to 1- month lows signaling sluggish demand. Furthermore, investors will eye on key US last quarter GDP data and pending home sales numbers which could give further clarity in price trend.

* MCX Copper July is expected to move higher towards Rs.890, as long as it trades above Rs.878 level. Only above Rs.890 it would open the doors towards Rs.900.

* MCX Aluminum July is expected to find support near Rs.245.50 and move higher towards Rs.250 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move higher towards Rs.257 level as long as it holds above Rs.252.

Energy Outlook

* Crude oil is likely to remain volatile and trade with weaker bias amid easing concerns over supply disruption from Iran. Further, prices may slip as de-escalation between Israel and Iran would improve oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, investors still remain cautious as they doubt over the durability of the ceasefire deal. On the other hand, drop in API crude oil inventory levels and improved risk sentiments would limit the downside in oil prices

* On the data front, fresh addition of OI in OTM call 68 strike indicates prices to face stiff resistance. On the downside 20-day EMA at $64 would act as key support. MCX Crude oil July is likely to move lower towards Rs.5400 as long as it trades under Rs.5800 level.

* MCX Natural gas July is expected to move lower towards Rs.308 as long as it trades under Rs.325 mark. Easing supply concerns and forecasts for cooler US weather would likely to weigh on gas prices.

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