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EBITDA in line; volumes rise QoQ

* In 3QFY25, GUJGA’s EBITDA stood at INR3.8b, in line with our estimates (- 5% YoY). Both overall volumes and EBITDA/scm came in line with our est. at 9.5mmscmd and INR4.4, respectively. 3QFY25 showed a QoQ recovery in volume, driven by an 11% growth in the PNG I/C segment. The impact of the APM twin de-allocation was clearly visible as margins contracted INR2.1/scm QoQ. We note that Spot LNG prices were high, averaging USD13.9/mmbtu in 3Q (up 7% QoQ), and continue to remain elevated in 4QFY25’td, averaging USD14.1/mmbtu.

* Revenue stood at INR41.5b (est. of INR41.2b, up 6% YoY).

* Overall volumes in 3QFY25 came at 9.5mmscmd, in line with our estimates.

* EBITDA also came in line with our estimates, at INR3.8b. EBITDA/scm stood at INR4.4 (vs. our est. of INR4.3, down 32% QoQ).

* PAT stood at INR2.2b (est. of INR1.9b, up 1% YoY).

* The variance at the PAT level was driven by other income surpassing our estimates.

* The company has added ~38.2k new domestic customers and five new CNG stations.

* The commissioning of new industrial customers has resulted in an increase in volume of ~172,000scmd.

* The company added 771kms of gas pipelines during the quarter, bringing the total to ~42,000kms.

* In 9mFY25, Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 7%/11%/17% YoY.

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